As we look towards the closing stages of the week, the main focus is on the bond market. And with yields slipping further in European trading, it is sparking some broader market moves. Of note, USD/JPY is now down 0.8% to 149.55 while stocks are beginning to pick up some steam on the session. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.25% after a tentative start earlier. It all comes as 10-year Treasury yields fall to 4.385% and closes in on a key technical level:
It is fast approaching the 100-day moving average (red line) at 4.34% and that will mark a critical juncture for what will happen next in the bond market. If bond sellers can hold the line and push yields higher again, that would be a key spot to stamp their mark.
However, if yields do slip back below that level, I’m afraid the rally in bonds (and risky assets) may look to pick up more momentum towards the end of November. And if so, that doesn’t bode well for the dollar’s fortunes in the week ahead.