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The Atlanta Fed is out with its most recent modeled growth forecast for Q4. In their own words:

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 8, unchanged from November 7 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -1.0 percent to -1.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 15. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

The Atlanta Fed model in Q3 forecast growth at 5.4%. The actual growth came in at 4.9%. The prior two quarters (Q1 and Q2), the model nailed the growth to the decimal place. As a result, it gets the respect of the market more than other models (at a point in time).

Of note is it is also a modeled estimate for growth as each economic input into the model is released. As a result, the numbers can fluctuate. As a result, as you get closer to the end of the quarterly numbers, the modeled results should be close to the actual growth numbers. This far from the end of the quarter is a nice snapshot, but there is a long way to go.

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