China’s October financing data: Mixed results (ICYMI)

China published financing data for October on Monday, it was a bit of a mixed result. Justin had the data here:

New yuan loans in October came in at 738.4bn CNY

• beating the expected 665bn, and well down from September’s 2310bn

Total (aggregate) Social Financing came in at 1850bn CNY

• barely missing the expected at 1900bn CNY, and also well down from September’s 4120bn CNY

The dip for both of these measures in October from September can be attributed to a combination of:

• the September result was end-of-quarter which has a tendency to jump
• other seasonal factors
• both are volatile data series

The ‘but’ is that there may be more to it than that (i.e. a drying up of borrowing demand), however, given both were within a shade of estimates I’d be dismissing this more dire explanation.