Citi boost 2023 China growth forecast well above 5%: economy has hit its cyclical trough

Citi has published a note from global chief economist Nathan Sheets. Its wide-ranging but I have pulled out comments on China (the full piece is here if you are interested in more).

In brief:

• The forecast for China’s 2023 growth has been boosted from 4.7% to 5.3%
• 2024 forecast unchanged at 4.6%
• notes early signs that the Chinese economy has reached a cyclical trough, with consumer spending looking like it’s climbing back and those consumers likely having ample savings to support a further cyclical bounce
• actions taken by the People’s Bank of China have helped put a floor under the ailing property sector as well as providing more general support

• But … China’s deeper structural challenges, which begin with elevated indebtedness and the need to make household consumption a more central part of the growth process and extend to challenging demographics and geopolitical tensions with the United States

            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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