Dollar extends drop, still vulnerable after Fed

The U.S. dollar extended its decline on Monday, having fallen last week by the most since July after the Federal Reserve dialled down its hawkish rhetoric and U.S. data showed signs of moderation.

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Dane Cekov, senior FX strategist at Nordea, called last week’s moves an “over-reaction”, saying the jobs data was a “mixed bag”.

“You could still see a somewhat weaker dollar in the short-term, but if the (euro-dollar) rally continues it needs to get some fuel from somewhere.”

JPMorgan analysts say a sustained dollar sell-off would need signs of improvement in the euro zone, China and other regions, which it says are “still tenuous”.

Futures markets imply around an 80% probability the European Central Bank will be cutting rates by April and around a 90% chance the Fed has done hiking, with an 86% chance the Fed’s first policy easing would come as soon as June.