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Bullish XAU/USD Trend Driven by US Dollar Dip, Yield DeclinesBullish XAU/USD Trend Driven by US Dollar Dip, Yield Declines



  • The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
    expected as the central bank has ended its tightening cycle.
  • President Lagarde highlighted
    the weakness in the Eurozone economy and reaffirmed that rates will make a
    substantial contribution to curbing inflation.
  • The recent Eurozone CPI missed
    expectations on the headline figures but the Core measure remained unchanged.
    This is unlikely to change the ECB’s stance anyway.
  • The labour market remains historically
    tight but the unemployment rate recently ticked higher.
  • The recent Eurozone PMIs missed
    across the board as the economy continues to struggle.
  • The market doesn’t expect the ECB to hike anymore.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe


On the
daily chart, we can see that EURUSD reached the key swing level at 1.0950 after
an incredible rally following the miss in the US CPI report. The price is now a
bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
higher into the key swing level diverged with the
MACD. This is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk
to target a drop into the trendline.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
pair is trading inside a rising channel and we can expect some aggressive
buyers leaning on the lower bound of the channel to keep charging higher. From
a risk management perspective though, the buyers will have a much better risk
to reward setup around the 1.0830 level where they will have the confluence with
the daily blue 8 moving average and the trendline. If the price breaks the
lower bound of the channel, we can expect the sellers to pile in and target the
1.0830 support.

Upcoming Events

This week is pretty empty on the data front with the US
on holiday for Thanksgiving Day in the final part of the week. Today, we have
the FOMC Meeting Minutes but it’s unlikely to be market moving given that it’s
three-weeks old data. Tomorrow, we have the US Jobless Claims report which is
probably going to be the most important release of the week. On Thursday, we
have the Eurozone PMIs while on Friday we conclude the week with the latest US

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