EURUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

US

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The recent US Core PCE came
  in line with expectations.
• The labour market is
  starting to show some weakness as Continuing Claims are now
  rising at a fast pace and the NFP data
  last Friday missed across the board.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence fell for the third consecutive month
  although the data beat expectations.
• The US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI last week missed expectations by a big
  margin, followed later on Friday with a disappointing ISM Services PMI,
  although the index remained in expansion.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

EU

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected as the central bank has ended its tightening cycle.
• President Lagarde highlighted
  the weakness in the Eurozone economy and reaffirmed that rates will make a
  substantial contribution to curbing inflation.
• The Eurozone CPI missed
  expectations on the headline figures but the Core measure remained unchanged.
  This won’t change the ECB’s stance anyway.
• The labour market remains
  very tight but the unemployment rate last week ticked higher.
• The recent Eurozone PMIs missed
  across the board as the economy continues to struggle.
• The market doesn’t expect the ECB to hike anymore.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD pair
bottomed around the 1.05 support and
extended the rally last Friday following the miss in the NFP data. The price is
now rejecting the resistance around the 1.0760 level where we have also the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. We can
also notice that the price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance
from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback or some consolidation before a
continuation.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the buyers would be better off waiting for a pullback
into the recent swing level at 1.0670 where they will find the confluence with
the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets and position for a drop back to the lows.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price recently broke below the upward trendline
suggesting that the near-term momentum is skewed to the downside. The sellers
piled in to target the support around the 1.0670 level, while the buyers are
likely waiting to step in at the support zone with an even better risk to
reward setup. A break below the support would invalidate the bullish setup and
give sellers back control.

Upcoming Events

This week is pretty empty on the data front with just
the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment on Friday. The market is likely to focus on the US Jobless Claims on
Thursday given the recent weakness in the labour market data.

See the video below