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The US retail sales data was a bit higher than expectations at -0.1% versus -0.3% estimate. There were also positive revisions for the prior month. Although negative, the retail sales had been up for 5 consecutive months prior to this month’s decline. The fall is not necessarily a trend. However, it was negative and in this economic environment, traders are more sensitive to a slowdown in spending and will have an eye out for continuation of spending in other data as the month progresses. .

Meanwhile PPI today came in weaker than expectations across the board with the year-on-year coming in at 1.3% versus 1.9% expected. The core reading came in at 2.4% vs 2.7%. The pipeline inflation reading bodes well for future CPI data (fingers crossed).

Despite the negative retail sales and lower-than-expected PPI, the US yields did move higher today after the sharp fall yesterday.

  • 2-year yield 4.909%, +9.3 basis points
  • 5-year yield 4.528%, +1.0 basis points
  • 10-year yield 4.539% +9.8 basis points
  • 30-year yield 4.699% +7.8 basis points

Looking at the forex markets the NZD is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies while the GBP is the weakest. The USD had an up and down day, but is ending with a tilt to the upside led by gains vs the GBP, JPY and the EUR. The dollar was marginally lower vs the CHF, CAD and AUD.

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

In other markets:

  • Crude oil is trading down $1.77 or -2.26% at $76.49.
  • Gold is trading down $3.94 or -0.20% at $1959.29
  • Silver is trading down $0.35 or 1.55% at $23.43.
  • Bitcoin is trading higher from early New York levels at $37,696. The high price from last week reached $37,978.

Tomorrow there’s a slew of Fed speakers including Feds Cook, Barr, Williams, and Waller. US jobs claims in continuing claims along with the Philly Fed manufacturing index and import prices will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Industrial production capacity utilization will be released at 9:15 AM and the NAHB housing market index will conclude the economic releases at 10 AM ET.

If the earnings from Cisco and Palo Alto are any indication of the stock open for tomorrow, Cisco systems are down -10.57% in after-hours trading and Palo Alto Networks shares are down -7.10%.

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