Goldman Sachs say they are becoming more and more confident the US will avoid a recession:
We continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% US recession probability. We expect several tailwinds to global growth in 2024, including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows
The global economy has outperformed even our optimistic expectations in 2023. GDP growth is on track to beat consensus forecasts from a year ago by 1pp globally and 2pp in the US, while core inflation is down from 6% in 2022 to 3% sequentially across economies that saw a post-covid price surge.
More disinflation is in store over the next year. Although the normalization in product and labor markets is now well advanced, its full disinflationary effect is still playing out, and core inflation should fall back to 2-21/2% by end-2024.
Most major DM central banks are likely finished hiking, but under our baseline forecast for a strong global economy, rate cuts probably won’t arrive until 2024H2. When rates ultimately do settle, we expect central banks to leave policy rates above their current estimates of long-run sustainable levels.
Sounds bullish, but earlier this week I posted thier less than stellar outlook for the 12 months ahead: