It is another month of disappointment for UK retail sales activity, with the data here missing on estimates significantly once again. ONS cites retailers as saying that cost of living pressures, reduced footfall, and wet weather in the second-half of October to have contributed to the monthly decline. But it seems to be the case almost every other month now in the UK, innit?
As high inflation continues to grip the economy, households are tightening the purse strings and it is showing up quite markedly in the retail sales data. The pound has taken a dip from around 1.2412 earlier to 1.2380 currently and is closing in on the 100-hour moving average (red line) at 1.2379:
Keep above and buyers will still hold the near-term bias but break below and that will shift to being more neutral again.
As much as the dollar has been in a softer spot this week, UK data hasn’t really helped the pound to capitalise on that as seen today with retail sales and the inflation report yesterday.
Elsewhere, EUR/GBP is also starting to make a move as the pair nudges to contest resistance around 0.8750-55 at the moment. Keep in mind that there are also large option expiries at the level that could help to keep the pound from falling much further, at least for now.