Every analyst I’ve read on the Tuesday, 7 November 2023 RBA decision has forecast a rate hike.
I have seen a couple of hold outs though. I haven’t managed to read a piece making the arguments for a hold. If I was writing such a piece (I am not as I think the RBA will raise its cash rate today) I’d point o:
the RBA having been complacent in the past and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are again
the movement higher for inflation evident in the recent official is not “material” for the RBA’s inflation outlook
the impact of past rate hikes has not yet fully filtered into the real economy so there is a reason not to hike
expect a 25 bps hike following the outsized Q3 CPI print
The outcome was material in our view and threatens the RBA’s ability to bring inflation under 3% by Q4’25.
A hike would be consistent with RBA comments of ‘…a low tolerance returning inflation to target more slowly than currently expected.’
That said, we do acknowledge the decision is a close call
Bolding mine. Yes, it is. Market pricing is around 60% for a hike.