It’s a bonanza in markets after US CPI was slightly lower than expected today. The market has priced out any further Fed rate hikes and is cheering the likelihood of a soft landing in the US. The Nasdaq is now just 7% from an all-time high and only 2.7% from the July high.
In the FX market, the US dollar is broadly weaker while the New Zealand dollar leads the way. The market is turning towards growth trades and there are strong bids in emerging market currencies.
The signal from fixed income is strong today with US 10-year yields breaking below the recent low, falling 17.3 bps to 4.459%.
I’m struck at just how large these moves are, given that CPI was 0.1 pp better than expected across the board. It highlights a market that is poorly positioned and is looking to deploy capital.