The US dollar continued its downward trajectory on Monday, marking its most significant decline since its peak in July 2023. This came as a result of the Federal Reserve noting the mellowing of US economic data.
The dollar index retreated by 0.2% to reach 104.85, its lowest point in over six weeks, following a substantial 1.4% drop last week. In contrast, the euro saw a 0.2% increase, reaching a 7.5-week high at $1.0756.
Several factors contributed to the dollar’s decline. These included the weakening US job market, softer manufacturing statistics, and a drop in long-term Treasury yields. These same factors led to rallies in currencies like the British pound and the Australian dollar, while pushing the yen back from the less favoUrable side of 150 per dollar.
Market analyst at CMC Markets, Tina Teng, noted that the market often responds positively to “bad news,” as it raises expectations for central banks, including the Fed, to conclude their rate-hiking cycles earlier.
The decline in Treasury yields last week, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reference to ‘balanced’ risks, underscored the weakening US economic data. Furthermore, the US government reduced its refinancing estimate for the current quarter and announced lower-than-expected increases in long-term debt auctions.
Futures markets indicated a 90% probability that the Fed had concluded its interest rate hikes, with an 86% chance that the first policy easing would come as soon as June. Market expectations also point to an 80% likelihood of the European Central Bank cutting rates by April, while the Bank of England is anticipated to ease in August.