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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Misses Analyst ExpectationsMichigan Consumer Sentiment Misses Analyst Expectations

ECB President Lagarde (neutral – voter) over the
weekend spoke with a Greek newspaper and reaffirmed their commitment to bring
inflation down to target by 2025:

  • We are determined to
    bring inflation down to 2%.
  • According to our
    projections we will get there in 2025.
  • Our mandate is to
    ensure price stability, and this is the best contribution we can make to
    social peace and to society, to the most vulnerable of its members in
ECB’s President Lagarde

BoJ Governor Ueda
repeated once again his previous remarks highlighting the need to see sustained
wage growth in order to hit the 2% inflation target and exit the easy monetary

  • Japan’s economy recovering moderately.
  • Japan’s economy
    likely to continue recovering.
  • Long-term rates may
    rise somewhat but what’s important is to look at real interest rate that
    takes into account inflation expectations.
  • Even if long-term
    rates rise, real interest rate will move in negative territory so monetary
    conditions will be sufficiently accommodative.
  • There is uncertainty
    on whether Japan will see positive cycle of wage and inflation, as we
  • We will patiently
    maintain monetary easing to support economic activity.
  • We will continue
    massive bond buying even under new operation we decided last week.
  • We will conduct
    nimble market operations when interest rate rise, depending on level and
    speed of moves of long-term rates
  • Even if long-term
    rates come under upward pressure, don’t expect 10-year JGB yield to
    sharply exceed 1%.
  • Under YCC, we need
    to carefully weigh the effect of the policy in stimulating economy, and
    the side-effects.
  • Uncertainty
    surrounding our baseline scenario on economy is extremely high, one of
    which is overseas economic outlook.
  • Must keep close eye
    on impact of rapid Fed rate hike on markets, FX moves.
  • Need to be vigilant
    to whether China’s recovery momentum could be hampered by property market
  • Cost-push pressure
    on inflation likely to gradually dissipate, although it may take more time
    given recent rises in oil prices.
  • Don’t expect
    inflation to move back to around zero like during pre-Covid periods.
  • Medium, long-term
    inflation expectations heightening moderately, likely affecting firms’
    corporate wage, price-setting behaviour.
  • Likelihood of Japan
    achieving 2% inflation target gradually increasing but not in a stage
    where we can say so with enough certainty
  • Key is whether wages
    will keep rising and such practice become embedded in society
  • Next year’s spring
    wage negotiation is particularly important, watching development carefully
  • There is uncertainty
    on whether wage hikes will continue next year.
  • Another key factor
    is whether firms will set prices based on assumption wages will rising.
  • YCC, negative short-term
    rates will be kept until 2% CPI sustained
  • We need to have more
    conviction that wages will keep rising, rising wages lead to service
    prices and economy remains strong, to ponder exit from easy policy.
  • If 2024, 2025
    inflation forecasts are strong enough, we may be able to judge that
    sustained achievement of 2% target is in sight even if 2026 forecast is
    not available.
  • Hard to say chance
    of ending zero interest rates this year is zero
  • We don’t necessarily
    need to wait until real wages actually turn positive in exiting YCC,
    negative rates.
  • If we think there is
    strong chance real wages will turn positive in the future, that may be
    sufficient in making decision on whether to continue with YCC, negative
  • We need to confirm
    whether pass-through of import prices dissipate, and whether
    wage-inflation cycle kicks off as we expect, when asked on what conditions
    need to be met to end YCC, negative rates.
BoJ Governor Ueda

Japan’s largest industrial
union UA Zensen will seek a 6% total wage increase, of which 4% will be base
pay hikes, at next spring’s negotiations, a union official said on Monday.
Annual wage negotiations effectively kicked off on Monday and will be concluded
on January 23, before Japanese blue-chip companies offer next year’s wage hike
plan in March.

Saudi Arabia and Russia
reaffirmed their commitment to extra voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of
the year.

Crude Oil

Fed’s Cook (dove – voter)
touched on the rise of long-term yields and the risks around real estate:

  • Expectations of
    near-term policy rates do not appear to be driving long end
  • Residential and
    commercial property prices remain above levels historically associated
    with fundamentals.
  • If commercial
    mortgage delinquency rates force sales, committal real estate prices
    ‘could decline sharply’
  • Business borrowing
    is at high levels, but measures of debt servicing capacity remain strong
    overall due to profits and limited impact of high rates so far.
  • In terms of debt,
    household sector looks quite resilient, though there are emerging signs of
    stress for those with weak credit.
  • Vulnerabilities
    among non-banks could amplify stress of tightened financial conditions and
    slowing economy.
  • Fed cannot
    anticipate all risks
    but can build resilience to shocks; particularly
    important to enhance resilience of large banks.
  • We are determined to
    reach 2% inflation objective.
  • Hope current policy
    enough to return inflation to 2%.

Fed’s Cook

ECB’s Holzmann (hawk –
voter) reaffirmed his commitment to hike rates further if needed as he remains
cautious on the inflation outlook:

  • I definitely belong
    to those that think we should be very careful, that we should stand ready
    to hike again if needed
  • Not really worried
    about the growth outlook because despite rate hikes, we still have
  • It could be much,
    much worse and we are in pretty good shape there.
  • Don’t expect any
    reduction in rates soon, eventually it will happen but for the time being
    I don’t see it
  • We need to stay

ECB’s Holzmann

BoE’s Pill (neutral – voter)
expressed his concern about keeping restrictive policy for too long:

  • UK inflation remains
    too high.
  • UK rate policy does
    remain restrictive
  • Sees more signs of
    slowing activity
  • Higher UK rates are
    hitting the supply side.
  • BOE is still working
    to bring inflation down to 2%.
  • We are going to see
    UK inflation for 2 more comparable levels with the rest of the world in
    pretty short order.
  • We can’t make
    promises about monetary policy outlook.
  • We need to retain
    agility on monetary policy
  • We still do not know
    economic implications of conflict in Middle East.
  • Causing demand
    constraint can be painful, but it is crucial to we get inflation back to
  • MPC feels it needs
    to keep rates restrictive at least for a while.
  • It is premature to
    talk about cutting rates.
  • Middle of next year
    does not seem totally unreasonable for considering rate stands
  • As things change
    over those 9 months, we might need to reconsider monetary policy stance.
  • If we have
    restrictive policy for too long, we risk creating recession and pushing
    inflation below target
  • Equilibrium interest
    rate is still probably positive.
  • Interest rates in
    the future will probably be higher than in the pre-Covid era

BoE’s Pill

The Fed released the
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for Q3

  • Banks reported
    tighter lending standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial
    loans across all firm sizes in the third quarter of 2023
  • Commercial real
    estate loans also saw tightened standards and reduced demand.
  • Residential real
    estate loans and home equity lines of credit experienced stricter
    standards, except for government-backed residential mortgages, which
    remained unchanged.
  • Demand for all
    categories of residential real estate loans weakened, with significant net
    shares of banks reporting a decline.
  • Credit card, auto,
    and other consumer loans saw tightened lending standards and a weakening
  • Special questions
    revealed banks were less likely to approve credit card and auto loans for
    borrowers with lower FICO scores compared to the beginning of the year.
  • Economic outlook,
    risk tolerance, credit quality, and funding costs were the primary reasons
    banks cited for tightening lending standards

Federal Reserve

Fed’s Kashkari (hawk –
voter) expressed his concern about undertightening:

  • Undertightening will
    not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time
  • Have concerns about
    inflation ticking up again. That’s what I’m worried about.
  • Some prices and
    wages data indicate that inflation could be settling somewhere north of
    2%, and that would be very concerning to me.
  • I need more
    information to come to a firm decision on interest-rate steps moving
    forward. I am not ready to say we are in a good place
  • Economy has proved
    to be very resilient, inflation has come down.
  • Making progress on
    inflation, job market is strong.
  • Fed has more work to
    do to get inflation under control.
  • American consumers
    continue to spend.
  • Need to finish the
    job on lowering inflation.
  • ‘Nervous’ over
    declaring premature victory over inflation
  • US economy is so far
    ahead of foreign economies.
  • Have to let
    inflation and labour data guide us

Fed’s Kashkari

Japanese September wage
data beat expectations:

  • Average Cash Earning
    YoY 1.2% vs. 1.0% expected and 1.1% prior.
  • Real wages
    (inflation adjusted) YoY -2.4%.
  • Overtime pay YoY
    0.7% vs. 0.2%.

Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY

The RBA raised the cash
rate by 25 bps as expected:

  • Board remains
    resolute in its determination to return inflation to target.
  • CPI inflation is now
    expected to be around 3½ per cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the
    target range of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of 2025.
  • Board judged an
    increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that
    inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.
  • Whether further
    tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns
    to target in a reasonable time frame will depend upon the data and the
    evolving assessment of risks.
  • Still significant
    uncertainties around the outlook.
  • Services price
    inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could
    occur in Australia.
  • To date, medium-term
    inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target, and
    it is important that this remains the case.
  • High inflation is
    weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is
    weak, as is dwelling investment.
  • Wages growth has
    picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation
    target, provided that productivity growth picks up.
  • Weight of
    information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for
    longer has increased.


The Eurozone PPI for
September fell further into contraction:

  • PPI Y/Y -12.4% vs. -12.5%
    expected and -11.5% prior.

Eurozone PPI YoY

Fed’s Goolsbee (dove –
voter) reaffirmed his “wait and see” stance as he sees progress on inflation:

  • If the rise in long
    term yields is coming from term premia, we have to take that into account.
  • You cannot answer
    what number on long-term yield equals enough tightening.
  • We are also getting
    positive supply-side developments in the economy.
  • The economy is weakening.
  • Job market is
    getting into better balance.
  • So far, the slowdown
    is what you would want, toward a more balanced growth and sustainable
  • Inflation has come
    down a lot.
  • We might equal the
    fastest drop in inflation in the last century.
  • As long as we are
    making progress on inflation, the topic is then only how long we keep
    rates at this level
  • Inflation is more
    important part of the mandate right now
  • I don’t like pre-committing
    what rates will be at the next meeting.
  • Still a lot of data
    to parse before then.
  • My conditions for
    Fed being done with rates are that we are clearly back on path to get
    inflation back to 2%.
  • So far, we are on a
    good path on inflation, but not done yet.
  • Priority for
    changing rates stances inflation rate.
  • Financial conditions
    clearly matter, but market doesn’t get to tell the Fed what to do
  • There is possibility
    of the “golden path” that allows us to get inflation down
    without recession.

Fed’s Goolsbee

Fed’s Waller (neutral –
voter) clearly sees the labour market cooling down:

  • Labor market is cooling
    and getting close to average from before the pandemic; it’s ‘clearly
    calming down’
  • Labor supply also
    appears to be normalizing back to pre-pandemic levels.
  • ‘Everything was
    booming’ in Q3 GDP, Fed is watching that closely.
  • In central banking
    terms, move up in 10-year yields was an ‘earthquake’.
  • Policymakers are
    mulling what drove long-term yields higher
  • What people have in
    mind now is for prices to return to earlier levels, and that is not going
    to happen.

Fed’s Waller

Fed’s Logan (hawk –
voter) is watching carefully the long term rates:

  • All of us have been
    surprised by resilience of US economy.
  • Inflation remains too high.
  • The core question is
    if financial conditions today are sufficiently restrictive
  • Labor market is still
    too tight.
  • Still looks like
    trending towards 3% inflation.
  • We’ll need to see
    tight financial conditions to bring inflation to 2%.
  • My expectation is
    we’ll see growth slow, but we’ve been wrong before.
  • Key question on
    long-term rates is what was driving it.
  • If it was on the
    back of strong economic growth, FOMC would have to deliver on expectations
  • If rise in long end
    driving by term premium, it could do some of the Fed’s work.
  • Will watch to see if
    retracement of long rates continues.

Fed’s Logan

Fed’s Bowman (hawk –
voter) remains willing to hike rates further:

  • Fed funds rate
    currently appears restrictive, financial conditions have tightened since
  • Some tightening is
    due to long end, which can be volatile.
  • Don’t yet know
    effects of tightened financial conditions on economic activity.
  • I remain willing to
    support raising policy rate at future meeting
  • Inflation remains high.
  • Labor market supply
    and demand may be coming into better balance.

Fed’s Bowman

ECB’s Nagel (hawk –
voter) remains wary of inflation risks:

  • Wage growth and
    decreasing labour supply will keep up pressure on inflation
  • Imperative to remain vigilant.
  • We still face risks
    that inflation outlook could turn out higher than expected.
  • This discussion (on
    when interest rates can be cut) is not helpful. It is much, much too early.
  • Inflation is a
    greedy beast, a very greedy beast.
  • When we have to deal
    with a beast that is so stubborn, we have to be even more stubborn.

ECB’s Nagel

PBoC Governor Pan
Gongsheng touched on the central bank monetary policy and its future

  • Shifting economic
    growth model is more important than pursuing high growth rate.
  • China’s economy
    continues to improve, 5% growth target expected to be successfully
  • China’s economic
    growth momentum improves recently, production and consumption recover
    steadily, employment and consumer prices stable.
  • Monetary policy will
    pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments in
    next stage.
  • Will always keep
    prudent monetary policy, support stable growth of real economy.
  • Will provide a good
    monetary and financial environment to stabilize price, promote economic
    growth and expand employment.
  • Will resolutely
    guard against overshooting risks of yuan exchange rate.
  • Will resolutely deal
    with behaviours that disrupt market order.
  • Will prevent the
    formation of one-sided and self-reinforced market expectations.
  • Spillover effect of
    property market adjustments on the financial system are generally
  • Will guide financial
    institutions to keep stable financing channels open through property
    credit, bonds.
  • Some provinces are
    making plans to resolve risks of small and mid-sized banks.
  • Supports LGFVs to
    become market-oriented firms which do not rely on government credit and
    are financially independent and sustainable.
  • The central bank
    will provide emerging liquidity support to areas with relatively high debt
    burdens when necessary.
  • Will strictly
    control new govt-invested projects in areas with high debt burdens.
  • Will guide financial
    institutions to resolve debt risks through debt extension and replacement
    more to come.

PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng

ECB’s Kazaks (hawk – non
voter) reaffirmed the central bank commitment to bring inflation back to target
but expressed uncertainty around the outlook:

  • We are committed to our
    target of 2% and we shall deliver it.
  • Our current outlook
    forecasts that we will achieve it in the second half of 2025.
  • We are very clear on our
    target and of course we are determined, and we shall reach it.
  • We cannot exclude the possibility that further rate increases might be
  • But we simply don’t know, so we will do the best we can, we will not hold
    the rates at very high levels a minute longer than necessary.

ECB’s Kazaks

ECB’s Lane (dove – voter)
welcomed the progress on inflation but added that progress in underlying
inflation wasn’t enough.

ECB’s Lane

ECB’s Makhlouf (dove –
voter) highlighted the “huge uncertainty” that the central bank must navigate
and new risks that could emerge:

  • Early signals of the
    impact of inflation and monetary tightening on borrower resilience are
    becoming visible among tracker mortgages, personal loans and certain
    corporate lending segments.
  • Having said that
    there is huge uncertainty as to what lies ahead. A large part of monetary
    tightening has yet to be passed through to the financial system and to the
    economy; and while some risks are fading, new risks are emerging.

ECB’s Makhlouf

The Eurozone Retail Sales
for September slightly missed expectations:

  • Retail Sales M/M -0.3%
    vs. -0.2% expected and -0.7% prior.
  • Retail Sales Y/Y -2.9%
    vs. -3.1% expected and -2.1% prior (revised from -1.8%).

Eurozone Retail Sales YoY

The BoC release the
Minutes of the October Monetary Policy Meeting:

  • Members were divided
    on whether rates would need to be hiked again.
  • Some members of
    governing council felt it more likely than not that overnight rate would
    need to rise further.
  • Other members felt
    5% would likely be enough to bring inflation to target.
  • There was a strong
    consensus that with increasing evidence of falling inflation, BoC should
    be patient
  • Agreed to revisit
    need for rate hike at future decisions, after seeing more data
  • The lack of downward
    momentum in underlying inflation caused considerable concern, could mean
    more time needed or that policy not restrictive enough.
  • Agreed overall
    inflationary risks had increased.
  • Persistence in core,
    elevated expectations, wage growth and atypical corporate pricing
    behaviour indicate high inflation is becoming entrenched


The BoJ released the
Summary of Opinions report of the October Monetary Policy Meeting:

  • Sustainable and
    stable achievement of the price stability target is not yet envisaged with
    sufficient certainty at this point, and thus the Bank needs to patiently
    continue with monetary easing under yield curve control.
  • Will continue with
    the framework of yield curve control and the negative interest rate
    policy, at least as long as it is necessary for maintaining the price
    stability target of 2 percent in a stable manner.
  • To confirm that this
    aim has been achieved, it is necessary to carefully examine future
    developments in wage hikes and whether the virtuous cycle between wages
    and prices is operating from both sides
  • Extremely high
    uncertainties surrounding economies and financial markets at home and
    abroad, it is appropriate for the Bank to increase the flexibility in the
    conduct of yield curve control, so that long-term interest rates will be
    formed smoothly in financial markets in response to future developments.
  • There is still a
    distance to go before achieving the 2 percent target with the virtuous
    cycle between wages and prices, it is important for the Bank to keep
    supporting the momentum for wage hikes through continuation of monetary
  • In this situation,
    the Bank should maintain the framework of yield curve control while
    modifying the conduct of it.


The Chinese inflation
data disappointed once again as deflation remains present:

  • CPY Y/Y -0.2% vs. 0.1%
    expected and 0.0% prior.
  • CPI M/M -0.1% vs. 0.0% expected
    and 0.2% prior.
  • Core CPI Y/Y 0.6% vs.
    0.8% prior.
  • PPI Y/Y -2.6% vs. -2.7%
    expected and -2.5% prior.

China CPI YoY

Fed’s Harker (neutral –
voter) continues to support the “wait and see” approach:

  • Says he supported
    the steady interest rate stance at latest FOMC meeting.
  • Fed will stay higher
    for longer, no sign of near-term rate cuts
  • Now is a time to
    take stock of past rate hikes’ impact.
  • Next Fed rate choice
    “could go either way” depending on the data
  • Labor market is
    moving into a better balance.
  • Unemployment rate to
    rise to 4.5% in 2024 before falling
  • Confident consumers
    will help achieve a soft landing.
  • Unclear yet whether
    consumers have expended spending power.
  • No recession seen,
    but growth is likely to cool off.
  • Inflation steadily
    falling, to hit 3% in 2024, 2% after.

Fed’s Harker

ECB’s de Guindos (dove –
voter) continues to support the “higher for longer” stance highlighting the
negative growth outlook:

  • We are not there
    yet. We will see how things evolve month by month, but our approach now is
    to keep interest rates at this level long enough to reach our target.
  • Any discussion about
    lowering interest rates is clearly premature.
  • We believe that, if
    interest rates are maintained at their current levels, inflation will
    continue to fall and converge towards our target.
  • Our most recent
    projections indicated some downside risks to growth; some of these risks
    have now started to materialise and this will have an impact on inflation.
  • It might be
    premature to say it, but leading indicators point to the growth outlook
    being somewhat more negative than we previously projected
  • As regards
    inflation, the evolution may not be very different from what we projected
    in September.

ECB’s de Guindos

Fed’s Goolsbee (dove –
voter) highlighted the tightening from higher long term rates and how that
could increase the risk of overtightening:

  • The historical
    evidence suggests that long rates, even more than short rates, have a very
    substantial effect on real economic performance in a number of predictable
    areas—construction, investment, consumer durables.
  • If that is
    sustained, the Fed will have to think about the tightening impact of those
    credit conditions on economic performance and would there be dangers of

Fed’s Goolsbee

ECB’s Centeno (dove –
voter) reaffirmed his “wait and see” stance:

  • We are at a plateau in
    terms of interest rates
  • Monetary policy is
    working and helping inflation to come down.

ECB’s Centeno

Fed’s Barkin (hawk – non
voter) is debating whether the Fed has done enough and he’s not equating the
increase in long term rates to rate hikes:

  • Whether more is
    needed from the Fed remains to be seen.
  • We are making real
    progress on inflation.
  • The job isn’t done,
    inflation remains too high.
  • Not yet convinced
    inflation on a smooth glide path to 2%.
  • Will need economic
    slowing to beat inflation
  • Any downturn will be
    less severe than past recessions.
  • I don’t see us as
    done yet.
  • I have a hard time
    declaring ‘sufficiently restrictive’ at any point in time.
  • Long-term rates have
    loosened but I don’t think of them as a policy variable or equate them to
    rate hikes
  • A return to elevated
    inflation will mean we need to look hard if we need to do more.
  • Core issue on
    whether another rate hike is needed is inflation.
  • I anticipate more
    disinflation on goods.

Fed’s Barkin

BoC’s Rogers talked about
the importance of adjusting to higher rates as she sees a world with
persistently higher rates:

  • Canadians are
    feeling some pressure as they adjust to higher rates.
  • It’s easy to see a
    world where rates are persistently higher.
  • It’s important for
    people and businesses to adjust to a potentially higher-rate environment.
  • Adjusting early and
    bit by bit lowers the risk of abrupt steps later.
  • Adjustment to higher
    rates is well underway globally, there is less wiggle room for the global
    financial sector in the event of a shock.
  • Canadians are
    adjusting as they feel some pressure and juggle effects of inflation and
    higher rates.
  • Data suggest most
    Canadian businesses can service existing debt as servicing costs rise and
    revenue growth slows.
  • Bank is watching
    high levels of fixed-payment mortgage debt, given that 60% of mortgages
    holders must renew by end-2026.
  • Most mortgage
    holders still expect they can deal with higher payments when they renew.
  • BoC is not yet
    talking about reducing rates.
  • Does expect house
    prices will likely come off a bit more.

BoC’s Rogers

Fed’s Paese (non voter)
leans on the hawkish side as she pushes back on the market’s rate cuts pricing:

  • Too soon to rule out
    further US rate hikes
  • Central bank still
    has time to decide next step.
  • Watching 10-year
    yield for signals on financial conditions.
  • Too soon to declare
    victory on inflation.
  • Local contacts
    report better balance in jobs market
  • Not sure public
    expectations are aligned with likely Fed policy path

Fed’s Paese

The US Initial Claims
slightly beat expectations, but Continuing Claims continue to increase

  • Initial Claims 217K
    vs. 218K expected and 220K prior (revised from 217K).
  • Continuing Claims
    1834K vs. 1.820K expected and 1818 prior.

US Jobless Claims

Fed Chair Powell (neutral
– voter) remains totally committed to bring inflation down to target as he’s
keeping all the options on the table:

  • We are not confident
    that we’ve achieved sufficiently restrictive policy
  • If it becomes
    appropriate to tighten policy further, ‘we will not hesitate’.
  • We will continue to
    move carefully, decide meeting by meeting.
  • Attentive to risk
    that stronger growth could undermine inflation progress, which could
    warrant a monetary policy response.
  • We expect GDP growth
    to moderate in coming quarters but remains to be see.
  • Labor market tight
    but coming into better balance.
  • The US economy has
    been stronger than expected this year.
  • Economy has been ‘remarkable’.
  • US economy may be structurally
    more resilient to higher rates, but I don’t see evidence yet.
  • It’s hard to draw a
    ‘direct line’ from things like higher bond yields to a monetary policy
  • The Fed is “not
    going to ignore” a significant bond tightening, but do not have to
    make a decision now.
  • There are many
    candidate explanations for higher bond rates, says there are 5-6 good ones.
  • We won’t ignore
    higher yields but don’t have to make a decision now.
  • The bigger mistake
    is not getting rates high enough
  • R-star is not a
    particularly useful way to think about policy

Fed Chair Powell

The New Zealand
Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction:

  • Manufacturing PMI 42.5
    vs. 45.3 prior.

New Zealand Manufacturing PMI

ECB’s Vujcic (neutral –
voter) has a soft landing as the base scenario but keeps all the options on the

  • If our current
    projections materialize, then we will have a soft landing with a low
    sacrifice ratio, meaning without a recession and without a significant
    increase in unemployment.
  • We cannot be certain
    that it will stay that way until we reach our goal, but in my view the
    soft landing is still a central scenario
  • However, we have to
    stand ready either for a possibility of rate increases or rate cuts,
    depending on incoming data in 2024.

ECB’s Vujcic

The UK GDP for Q3 beat expectations
although growth was flat:

  • GDP Q3 Y/Y 0.6% vs.
    0.5% expected and 0.6% prior.
  • GDP Q3 Q/Q 0.0 vs.
    -0.1% expected and 0.2% prior.
  • GDP September M/M
    0.2% vs. 0.0 expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%).
  • GDP September Y/Y
    1.3% vs. 1.0% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 1.3%).


The University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey missed expectations by a big margin with inflation expectations continuing to climb:

  • Consumer Sentiment 60.4
    vs. 63.7 expected and 63.8 prior.
  • Current conditions
    65.7 vs. 69.5 expected and 70.6 prior.
  • Expectations 56.9 vs.
    59.5 expected and 66.0 prior.
  • 1-year inflation expectations
    4.4% vs. 4.2% prior.
  • 5-10 year inflation
    expectations 3.2% vs. 3.0% prior.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

highlights for next week will be:

  • Monday: Japan
  • Tuesday: UK Jobs
    data, German ZEW, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US CPI.
  • Wednesday: Japan
    GDP, Australia Wage data, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK CPI,
    US PPI, US Retail Sales, PBoC MLF.
  • Thursday: Australia
    Jobs data, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market
    Index, New Zealand PPI.
  • Friday: UK
    Retail Sales, Canada PPI, US Building Permits and Housing Starts.

That’s all folks. Have a
great weekend!

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