All technical indicators have moved towards levels of strong and sharply overbought conditions, caution is advised against buying at these levels. 

• The easing of signals for future US interest rate hikes and the subsequent decline in the US dollar were a strong catalyst for gold prices to move towards new record levels.
• It reached the resistance level of $2222 per ounce, the highest ever, before stabilizing around $2203 per ounce at the start of Thursday’s trading session.

Yesterday, US stock market indices rose to record highs after the Federal Reserve indicated that it is likely to implement the US interest rate cuts that Wall Street markets are looking for this year, despite some disappointing high inflation reports. According to trading platforms, the S&P 500 index jumped 46.11 points, or 0.9%, to 5224.62 points, hitting its all-time high for the second day in a row. Already, it had risen 9.5% so far in 2024, slightly better than the full-year average over the past two decades.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also jumped 401.37 points, or 1%, to 39512.13 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 202.62 points, or 1.3%, to 16369.41 points. Also, both hit record highs. Overall, some of the tensions that prevailed in Wall Street markets during the day dissipated after the US Federal Reserve released a survey of its policymakers, which showed that the median still expects the US central bank to make three rate cuts in 2024. Clearly, this is the same number they expected in 2024. Expectations of the relief that such cuts will provide were a major reason for the rise in US stocks to record levels.

The fear in Wall Street markets was that the US Federal Reserve might cut the number of expected cuts due to a series of recent reports that showed inflation is still hotter than expected. In general, the Federal Reserve keeps the main interest rate at its highest level since 2001 to reduce inflation. High interest rates slow the overall economy by making borrowing more expensive and hurting investment prices.

For his part, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he had noticed the worse-than-expected reports in the past two months, but they “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that inflation is moving down gradually on a sometimes-bumpy road to 2%. That story hasn’t changed.”

Powell added that the next move for the Federal Reserve is likely to be a cut sometime this year, but he needs more confirmation that inflation is moving towards its 2% target. Moreover, the Federal Reserve does not have much room for error. Therefore, cutting rates too early could allow inflation to accelerate, but cutting too late could lead to widespread job losses and a recession. Powell said of the January and February inflation data, “I don’t think we really know if this is a bump in the road or something more than that; “We have to find out.” “In the meantime, the economy is strong, the labor market is strong, and inflation has come down significantly, which gives us the ability to deal with this issue carefully.”

On the other hand, US Federal Reserve officials updated their expectations for US economic growth this year. Also, indicating that they may end up keeping the main interest rate higher in 2025 and 2026 than previously thought.

Returning to the recent technical analysis of the gold price, we indicated that there might be an opportunity for strong upward breakthroughs. Firstly, it breached the $2200 resistance per ounce if the tone of the US Federal Reserve was less hawkish, which has occurred. Now, with the movement above the $2220 resistance per ounce. Currently, all technical indicators have moved towards levels of strong and sharply overbought conditions, caution is advised against buying at these levels. Activating selling operations while awaiting profit-taking is possible but without risking much. After the recent gains, breaking the $2145 support per ounce gains importance for breaking the current upward trend.

Ready to trade our Gold forecast? We’ve shortlisted the most trusted Gold brokers in the industry for you. 

The US Federal Reserve surprised markets yesterday by forecasting it would still make three rate cuts of 0.25% each over the course of 2024, leading to a rally in risky assets and a decline in the US Dollar.

1. The US Federal Reserve held a policy meeting yesterday at which it surprised markets by forecasting that it would still be likely to make 3 rates in 2024, and by raising its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in 2024. The Fed also sees longer-term rates a bit higher beyond 2024, while leaving its rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. Powell’s bottom line can be summarised as “we need to see more evidence inflation is coming down before we cut”. Markets reacted to this dovish surprise by sending all the major US stock indices, notably the S&P 500 Index, to new record highs, which the US Dollar was moderately sold. Trend traders will be very interested in being long of major US stock market indices, as the price action suggests they will continue to advance.
2. Following the Fed’s meeting yesterday, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank will be holding policy meetings today. Both banks are widely expected to leave their interest rates unchanged.
3. After the Fed meeting yesterday, Gold rose strongly to make a new all-time high, trading above $2,200 per ounce for the first time.
4. The Japanese Yen regained some of its earlier losses following its decline after the Bank of Japan raised its interest rate for the first time since 2007 on Tuesday, as the Japanese Finance Minister talked up the Yen by saying he was “watching the FX market with a high sense of urgency”. The USD/JPY currency pair is some way off the 4-month high it made yesterday, but there will still be traders interested in looking for long trades here.
5. In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open today. The US Dollar has been the weakest. This puts the AUD/USD currency pair in focus today. When this pair advances it is a typical risk-on indicator.
6. Bitcoin recovered a lot of ground yesterday in line with the Fed-driven risk-on rally, but it still significantly far from its record high near $74,000.
7. In the commodities market, Cocoa futures rose yesterday to close at a new record high price. Trend traders will still be keen to be involved in this very long-running trend on the long side.
8. UK CPI (inflation) data released yesterday was lower than expected, showing a fall from an annualized rate of 4.0% to 3.4% when only a fall to 3.5% was widely expected.
9. There will be important data releases today of US, German, UK, and French Flash Services & Manufacturing data.
10. Yesterday’s release of New Zealand GDP data was a little worse than expected, showing a quarterly decline of 0.1% when an advance by the same amount was widely expected.
11. The earlier release of Australian Unemployment data was much better than expected, showing a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 3.7% when only 4.0% was expected.

• Gold price gains strong positive traction for the second straight day and refreshes record high.
• The Fed’s projected three rate cuts this year weigh on the USD and benefit the yellow metal.
• The prevalent risk-on mood prompts some profit-taking amid slightly overbought conditions.

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its strong bid tone through the early part of the European session and currently trades around the $2,210 area, just below a fresh record high touched earlier this Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) projection for three 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut this year, which, in turn, is seen benefitting the non-yielding yellow metal. Adding to this, geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East further seem to underpin the safe-have commodity. 

That said, an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields helps limit any further USD losses. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone might hold back bullish traders from placing fresh bets around the Gold price amid slightly overbought conditions. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favour of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the upside. Traders now look to the flash PMIs for cues about the global economic health, which along with the US Weekly Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data, might provide some impetus to the XAU/USD. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price stands tall near the record peak as Fed sticks to three rate cuts projection

• The Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its projection of three rate cuts for this year, which weighs on the US Dollar for the second straight day and lifts the Gold price to a fresh all-time peak.
• Policymakers now see the US economy to grow at 2.1% this year compared to 1.4% expected previously, and the jobless rate is seen at 4% by the end of this year, versus 4.1% anticipated in December.
• The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise at a 2.6% rate by year-end, compared to the 2.4% increase in the previous quarterly economic projections.
• In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that inflation is moving down gradually on a somewhat bumpy road; the recent high inflation readings kept officials on a cautious footing.
• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a greater chance, around 75%, that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting, up from 59% on Tuesday.
• This leads to a modest decline in the US Treasury bond yields, dragging the US Dollar to a one-week low during the Asian session on Thursday and lending some support to the precious metal.
• A slightly overbought condition on the daily chart prompts some profit-taking at higher levels amid a positive tone around the equity markets, which tends to undermine the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Technical Analysis: Gold price seems poised to appreciate further, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls

From a technical perspective, the overnight strong positive move confirmed a breakout through a bullish flag chart pattern and validated the positive outlook for the Gold price. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved back above the 70 mark, making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move. Nevertheless, the broader setup supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established strong uptrend witnessed over the past month or so.

Meanwhile, any meaningful corrective decline below the $2,200-2,190 region is likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the $2,160-2,158 horizontal zone. This is followed by the weekly swing low, around the $2,146 area, which, if broken decisively, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price further towards the next relevant support near the $2,128-2,127 zone. The XAU/USD could decline further, eventually dropping to the $2,100 round figure.

Next Article

How US Fed’s decision impacts gold prices

The US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% has triggered a surge in spot gold prices.

Market analysts emphasized that investors breathed a sigh of relief when the Federal Reserve confirmed its plan for three rate cuts in 2024.

The lenient stance of the Federal Open Market Committee and chair Jerome Powell’s assertion that strong hiring alone wouldn’t prevent rate cuts have contributed to this spike in gold prices.

Crude oil prices also influence gold rates

Anuj Gupta from HDFC Securities pointed out that crude oil prices could significantly impact gold price trends following the US Fed meeting.

He elaborated that escalating crude oil prices are likely to exert inflationary pressure on precious metal prices and other assets.

The uncertainty surrounding inflation is directly tied to crude oil prices and could bolster gold rates.

Strengthening dollar puts downward pressure on gold prices

Before the US Fed meeting took place, a strengthening US dollar put downward pressure on gold prices, resulting in sharp selling during morning trading sessions.

The gold futures contract on the MCX for April 2024 opened at a lower Rs. 65,348 per 10 grams. However, some strategic buying at these lower levels helped offset early morning losses.

Anuj Gupta from HDFC Securities attributed this pressure to the US dollar index surpassing the 103 mark.

Fed’s rate cut indications and market impact

The US Federal Reserve has kept benchmark interest rates steady at 5.25%- 5.50%, marking the fifth consecutive instance of no change.

Despite a robust job market and rising prices, the Fed hinted at potential rate cuts three times this year.

G. Chokkalingam, Founder and Head of Research at Equinomics Research Private Limited, predicts that gold prices will remain strong due to geopolitical uncertainty and rate cuts, while Shrey Jain of SAS Online believes that lower interest rates favor gold prices.

After witnessing mixed trends in the Indian market yesterday, both gold and silver prices recorded a hike on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Thursday, March 21, 2024.

Gold futures, maturing on April 5, 2024, stood at Rs 66,778 per 10 grams on the MCX, after recording a jump of Rs 1000 or 1.52 per cent. The previous close was recorded at Rs 65,750.

Read More

Meanwhile, silver futures, maturing on May 3, 2024, witnessed a hike of Rs 1187 or 1.58 per cent and were retailing at Rs 78,323 per kg on the MCX against the previous close of Rs 75,313.

GOLD, SILVER PRICES IN MAJOR CITIES

The gold and silver prices in India depend on several factors, including the value of the rupee against the dollar. Global demand also plays a key role in determining the trends observed in the rate of precious metals.

GOLD, SILVER PRICES ON INTERNATIONAL MARKET

Gold prices climbed to a record high on Thursday, as the US dollar and bond yields ticked lower after the Federal Reserve maintained its projection of three rate cuts for this year, news agency Reuters reported.

According to the latest metal report, spot gold was up 0.8 per cent at $2,203.84 per ounce, as of 0153 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,222.39 earlier in the session.

US gold futures jumped 2.1 per cent to $2,206.30.

“It’s the goldilocks scenario for gold prices, where marginally higher inflation expectations meet lower nominal rates to create decreased real yields,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com.

Among other precious metals, spot silver gained 0.4 per cent to $25.70 per ounce.

The gold price today in Delhi is 6094 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6647 per gram for 24 karat gold.

The price of gold in India today is 6,079 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6,632 per gram for 24 karat gold (also called 999 gold).

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Check Gold Price In Your City Today On 21st March 2024

Gold Price Today In Mumbai

The price of gold in Mumbai is 6079 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6632 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Kolkata

The gold price today in Kolkata is 6079 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6632 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Chennai

The Gold price today in Chennai is 6141 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6699 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Delhi

The gold price today in Delhi is 6094 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6647 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Thane

The gold price today in Thane is 6079 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6632 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Surat

The gold price today in Surat is 6084 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6637 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Pune

The gold price today in Pune is 6079 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6632 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Nagpur

The gold price today in Nagpur is 6079 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6632 per gram for 24 karat gold.

New Gold Inc. (NYSEAMERICAN:NGD – Get Free Report) shares rose 8.2% during trading on Wednesday . The stock traded as high as $1.73 and last traded at $1.72. Approximately 5,805,649 shares changed hands during mid-day trading, an increase of 9% from the average daily volume of 5,326,743 shares. The stock had previously closed at $1.59.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

Several analysts have commented on the stock. StockNews.com cut shares of New Gold from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Sunday, January 14th. National Bank Financial reiterated a “sector perform spec overwgt” rating on shares of New Gold in a research report on Wednesday, January 3rd. Finally, Raymond James upped their target price on shares of New Gold from $1.50 to $1.75 and gave the company a “market perform” rating in a research report on Tuesday, November 28th. One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, three have issued a hold rating and one has given a buy rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, New Gold has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $1.55.

Check Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on NGD

New Gold Stock Performance

The firm has a market capitalization of $1.17 billion, a P/E ratio of -18.89 and a beta of 1.50. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51, a quick ratio of 0.98 and a current ratio of 1.54.

New Gold (NYSEAMERICAN:NGD – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, February 13th. The basic materials company reported ($0.01) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.02 by ($0.03). New Gold had a positive return on equity of 5.63% and a negative net margin of 8.20%. The firm had revenue of $199.20 million during the quarter. Research analysts forecast that New Gold Inc. will post 0.06 EPS for the current year.

Institutional Trading of New Gold

A number of institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the business. Commonwealth Equity Services LLC bought a new position in New Gold in the 3rd quarter valued at $25,000. Virtu Financial LLC bought a new position in New Gold in the 1st quarter valued at $33,000. CreativeOne Wealth LLC bought a new position in New Gold in the 2nd quarter valued at $33,000. Quantbot Technologies LP bought a new position in New Gold in the 2nd quarter valued at $33,000. Finally, ExodusPoint Capital Management LP bought a new position in New Gold in the 2nd quarter valued at $33,000. 31.78% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

New Gold Company Profile

(Get Free Report)

New Gold Inc, an intermediate gold mining company, develops and operates of mineral properties in Canada. It primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. The company’s principal operating properties include 100% interest in the Rainy River mine located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada; and New Afton project situated in South-Central British Columbia.

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• Gold rallies and trades between $2,150 and $2,180 after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
• Fed keeps interest rates steady but adjusts its longer-term FFR projections for 2025, highlighting ongoing inflation challenges.
• Economic projections show an optimistic view for 2024 GDP growth, with core inflation expectations slightly elevated.
• Fed’s Powell: More evidence Is needed before the first interest rate cut.

Gold prices skyrocketed late in the North American session after the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged but upward revised the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) projections for 2025. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades volatile around the $2170-$2180 area, posting gains of more than 1%.

The US central bank has kept rates at 5.25%-5.50% unchanged and maintained their balance sheet reduction at the same pace since May 2023. In their statement, Fed officials underscored the US economy’s solidity and the labor market’s robustness. They have acknowledged the progress on inflation but also emphasized that the job is incomplete. They have stated that the risks to achieving their dual mandate are moving into a better balance, and they will continue to rely on data for their decisions.

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed his and colleagues’ previous remarks, saying that more evidence is needed before cutting rates for the first time. When asked about tolerance for higher inflation, he said they expected a “bumpy road” on the disinflation process toward the Fed’s 2% goal. He added that higher-than-expected inflation figures at the start of the year didn’t change the broader story that price gains were slowing

Daily digest market movers: Gold stays firm amid weak US Dollar

• After posting two months of surprisingly high inflation reports, the Federal Reserve tweaked its monetary policy expectations for 2025, though for 2024 the median stood at 4.6% as in December. Nevertheless, they upward revised the FFR from 3.6% to 3.9% in 2025. Additional figures were updated:
  • The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024 was revised to  2.1% up from 1.4% in December.
  • The Unemployment Rate was not revised, as is expected to remain at 4.0% down from 4.1%.
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index target wasn’t changed, remaining at 2.4%, while core PCE is estimated to end 2024 at 2.6%, up from 2.4%.
• The latest US economic data witnessed mixed business activity readings, making it challenging to predict the pace of economic deceleration in the US. The labor market has shown signs of cooling, though the economy added more people to the workforce than expected, while fewer people applied for unemployment benefits.
• Recent inflation data in the US showed that inflation on the consumer and producer side surprised to the upside, suggesting that inflation is stickier than expected.
• Given the backdrop, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony at the US Congress earlier this month, suggesting the Fed would begin to cut borrowing costs, were justified. However, last week’s inflation figures and Retail Sales data triggered a repricing of Fed rate cut bets, aligning with the US central bank’s view of 75 basis points of easing toward the end of 2024.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a June rate cut stand at 64%, down from 72% a week ago.

Technical analysis: Gold traders push XAU/USD north of $2,170

XAU/USD price hovers around $2,150 unmoved ahead of the FOMC decision. A dovish tilt could open the door for a rally that prompts a jump in Gold prices, opening the door to challenge the all-time high (ATH) at $2,195.15. A retest there would expose $2,200 next.

On the other hand, if Gold spot price tumbles below $2,150, look for a breach below December’s 3 high, exposing the March 6 low of $2,123.80, followed by $2,100.

The world’s No. 2 gold miner wants to explore the region after it had success with its Kibali gold mine in the northeast DRC. The mine produced 343,000 ounces of gold in 2023, which was nearly 8.5% of the company’s output for the year.

Barrick had also said last year it was keen to look for more copper deposits in Zambia and DRC as it looks to expand its presence on the African copperbelt.

Zambia, where the company has its Lumwana mine, is Africa’s second-largest copper producer, behind its northern neighbour Congo.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)