Today’s price movement indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend that originated from the March 27 swing low of $3.73. Since a lower swing high was established at $4.26 in March, that is the next price target for natural gas. However, a bull breakout above that swing high will trigger a continuation of a bull trend and a bullish reversal of the recent declining price correction. Each signal would provide another piece of technical evidence showing Improving demand for natural gas.
Confluence Target at $4.56
If bullish momentum can now be sustained, there is an initial upside target for natural gas around $4.56. That price level is identified by two methods. It is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and it marks the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern. When two or more indicators point to a similar price level, that price area can sometimes act like a magnet, pulling price towards it. Whether that happens with natural gas or not remains to be seen. But it certainly could happen.
On Track for Bullish Weekly Candle Pattern
Since there is only one more trading day left to the week, natural gas looks likely to end the week confirming a one-week bullish reversal that triggered this week on the weekly chart. A weekly close above last week’s high of $4.10 would confirm the breakout on the larger time frame. Also, there is a possibility that the one-week pattern this week will be a hammer candlestick pattern. However, in its current pattern position, it would represent upward momentum rather than the potential for a bullish reversal, as a bullish reversal already triggered.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
USD/JPY Forecast: the USD/JPY currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, is closely watched by traders and investors alike.
Overview of the USD/JPY Currency Pair
The USD/JPY pair is one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the world, reflecting the economic relationship between the United States and Japan. Both countries have significant global economic influence, making their currencies important in international trade and finance. The movements in this currency pair can be attributed to various factors, including economic data releases, central bank policies, and geopolitical events.
Economic Indicators Impacting USD/JPY
U.S. Economic Data Economic indicators from the United States play a pivotal role in determining the direction of the USD/JPY pair. Key reports such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment figures, and inflation rates provide insights into the health of the U.S. economy. Strong economic performance often leads to a stronger dollar, as investors seek to capitalize on growth prospects. Conversely, weaker economic data can result in a decline in the dollar’s value against the yen.
Japanese Economic Indicators
Similarly, economic data from Japan significantly impacts the yen’s value. Reports on Japan’s GDP, trade balance, and consumer sentiment help gauge the overall strength of the Japanese economy. A robust economic outlook may bolster the yen, while weak data could lead to depreciation. The Bank of Japan’s policies and responses to economic conditions also play a crucial role in shaping market perceptions of the yen.
Central Bank Policies
Federal Reserve Actions The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are vital for the USD/JPY exchange rate. Changes in interest rates, quantitative easing measures, and forward guidance influence market expectations. When the Fed signals a tightening of monetary policy, the dollar typically strengthens against the yen. On the other hand, accommodative policies may lead to a weaker dollar as investors seek higher yields elsewhere.
Bank of Japan Policies
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also plays a significant role in the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. The BOJ’s stance on interest rates and its approach to economic stimulus impact the yen’s value. If the BOJ maintains a dovish stance, it may lead to yen weakness, while a shift towards tightening could strengthen the currency. The BOJ’s interventions in the foreign exchange market can also cause significant fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors on USD/JPY
Risk Sentiment Market sentiment is a crucial driver of currency movements. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to favor currencies perceived as more stable. The yen is often viewed as a currency that can provide stability during market volatility. Thus, shifts in risk sentiment can lead to movements in the USD/JPY pair, with heightened uncertainty typically resulting in yen appreciation.
Geopolitical Events Geopolitical tensions and events can create significant volatility in the foreign exchange market. Developments such as trade negotiations, political instability, or natural disasters in either the U.S. or Japan can influence investor behavior and, consequently, impact the USD/JPY exchange rate. Monitoring these events is essential for understanding potential market reactions.
Future Outlook for USD/JPY
Economic Recovery and Growth Prospects Looking ahead, the economic recovery in both the U.S. and Japan will be a key factor influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate. Strong growth in the U.S. economy could lead to a stronger dollar, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a hawkish stance. Conversely, Japan’s economic performance and the BOJ’s policy direction will determine the yen’s strength.
Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations Inflation trends in both countries will significantly impact monetary policy decisions. Rising inflation in the U.S. may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, supporting the dollar. In Japan, however, the BOJ has historically maintained a low-interest-rate environment, which could keep the yen under pressure. Monitoring inflation data will be essential for anticipating future movements in the USD/JPY pair.
Global Economic Influences Global economic developments, including trade relationships and international market trends, will also shape the USD/JPY outlook. As the global economy becomes more interconnected, external factors can have significant ramifications for currency pairs. Staying informed about global economic conditions will be crucial for understanding the potential direction of the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Conclusion
The USD/JPY currency pair is influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, central bank policies, market sentiment, and geopolitical events. Understanding these dynamics is essential for anyone looking to navigate the foreign exchange market effectively. As we approach the future, keeping a close watch on economic developments and market trends will provide valuable insights into the potential movements of the USD/JPY pair. With careful analysis and informed decision-making, traders can better position themselves to respond to the ever-changing landscape of the currency market.
When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.
Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
Silver price falls vertically below $32.00 after US President Trump announces reciprocal tariffs.
A significant increase in the import duty on China has weighed on the Silver’s demand outlook.
Investors await the US NFP data, which will influence Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Silver price is down almost 5% during North American trading hours on Thursday, tests territory below $32.00. The price of the white metal has become vulnerable after United States (US) President Donald Trump unveiled a detailed reciprocal tariff plan for his trading partners.
The “Buy the Rumour and Sell the News” indicator forced traders to trigger the sell button for the Silver price. The previous metal was performing strongly, along with Gold, from the past few months as investors were increasingly confident that Trump’s tariffs would be inflationary and weigh on economic growth globally, including in the US. Technically, the appeal of the Silver price increases if investors anticipate heightening global economic tensions.
Fears of a US economic slowdown have also weighed on the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, nosedives to near 101.30, the lowest level seen in six months.
Additionally, escalated concerns over the demand of Silver by industries has also sent its price strongly on the ground. On Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a 34% import duty on China, in addition to the 20% levy already imposed for pouring drugs into the US economy. A significant increase in tariffs by Trump on China is expected to dampen its manufacturing sector. Such a scenario will weaken the demand for Silver by Chinese firms, given its application in various industries such as Electric Vehicles (EV), electronics, and solar energy.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The employment data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price falls like a house of cards after failing to revisit the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.
The Silver price slides below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $33.35, indicating that the near-term trend has turned bearish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slumps to near 40.00. A bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI fails to hold the 40.00 level.
Looking down, the February 28 low of $30.82 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Bitcoin price settled lower in the intraday levels, amid ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-candle SMA, coupled with negative signals from the Stochastic, and amid the dominance of the main downward trend as the price trades alongside the trend line.
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The Euro (EUR) rallied sharply against the US Dollar on Thursday after President Trump’s imposition of tariffs increased fears over the US and global economy and sparked increased recession talk.
Danske Bank commented; “The new tariffs were generally stronger and broader than we and markets expected, and sent shockwaves through global markets amid worries that the aggressive duties will slow growth, hit corporate earnings, and increase inflation.”
There are fears that the Euro-Zone will be hit hard, but the Euro gained defensive support with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate hit 6-month highs just above the key 1.1000 level.
An exodus from US capital markets could support the Euro and undermine the dollar.
ING commented; “While a global trade war in theory is a euro-negative, the soft underbelly of the US economy is the dominant factor for EUR/USD right now. A much sharper sell-off in US equities, dragging US rates even lower, adds another nail in the coffin of US exceptionalism and could send EUR/USD over 1.10.”
It added; “Major medium-term resistance sits in the 1.11/12 area. It’s hard to call a major break of that unless US activity craters.”
According to Danske Bank; “we expect consolidation around current levels in the near term, with risks tilted to the upside.”
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As part of its wider tariff plan, the US Administration has imposed a 20% tariff on goods imports from the EU.
At this stage, the EU has not announced any formal retaliation, but the rhetoric is tough.
According to European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the new tax imports will see uncertainty spiral causing dire consequences for millions of people around the globe”.
She vowed that Europe would take a unified approach and warned that it is preparing countermeasures in case negotiations fail.
She added; “If you take on one of us, you take on all of us.”
There are potential interest rate implications with markets now pricing in over a 90% chance that the ECB will cut rates this month.
The chances of a May Fed rate cut have also increased to around 20% with around a 75% chance of a move by mid-year.
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US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs triggered panic across financial boards.
The US will publish the March Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
XAU/USD corrective slide may extend if the pair breaks below $3,040.
Spot Gold battles to retain the $3,100 threshold in the American session, easing from a fresh all-time high of $3,167.68. The XAU/USD pair soared during Asian trading hours, as market players panicked following United States (US) President Donald Trump, “Liberation Day” announcement.
In a press conference in the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump detailed widespread tariffs on roughly 180 different countries, with a baseline of 10%. Levies on China reached 54% after an additional 34% was added to the previously announced 20%. The EU got 20%, while some Asian countries like Vietnam or Cambodia will pay taxes of over 40% to sell their goods into the US.
Financial markets panicked amid speculation that inflation would soar while economic progress would stall. Concerns about a US recession rose, alongside speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to adjust its monetary policy accordingly. The US Dollar plummeted, and so did stock markets around the world.
Meanwhile, the US will release the March Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The country is expected to have added 135K, following the 151K gained in February. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4.1% while wage inflation is seen pretty much unchanged, up by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.9% from a year earlier.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
As per XAU/USD, the pair retreated sharply after reaching the aforementioned high amid profit taking, with buyers finally returning at around $3,050. From a technical point of view, Gold has a limited bearish scope, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The intraday slide stalled far above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around $3,022. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their sharp upward slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators ease from extreme readings, yet remain far above their midlines, not enough to confirm a top in place.
The XAU/USD pair 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading below a now flat 20 SMA, but still well above a bullish 100 SMA, providing support at around $3,040. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have recovered from near oversold readings to stabilize within negative levels. A steep decline could take place on a break below the mentioned $3,040 region.
Support levels: 3,086.70 3,073.90 3,061.10
Resistance levels: 3,123.10 3,136.70 3,150.00
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
At the time of writing, Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trading at $1.3148 – its highest level since October 2024 and up 1.3% from Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) suffered a sharp decline on Wednesday evening and into Thursday’s session after US President Donald Trump introduced sweeping new tariffs.
On what he declared ‘liberation day’, Trump announced a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, alongside increased reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose taxes on US exports.
The move intensified concerns that the US economy could slide into recession this year. Analysts at Barclays warned of a ‘high risk’ of recession, with rising inflation and higher unemployment adding to the economic uncertainty.
In response, USD tumbled, with the US Dollar index – which tracks the currency’s performance against a basket of rivals – plunging nearly 1.4% to its lowest level since October 2024.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) capitalised on the US Dollar’s weakness, propelling GBP/USD to its highest level in six months.
While the UK will be affected by the new tariffs, the economic impact is expected to be significantly less severe than in the US. British exports to the US will face a 10% tariff, but this is a milder blow compared to the broader trade restrictions imposed on other nations.
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Looking ahead, Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is likely to fuel further volatility in currency markets as traders assess the potential fallout and watch for retaliatory measures from other economies.
If global trade tensions escalate and recession fears deepen, the US Dollar could remain under pressure.
In addition, upcoming US economic data may influence GBP/USD. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, which could further weigh on the ‘Greenback’ if it reinforces concerns about the health of the US economy.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also set to speak on Friday. Should he express worries about the economic impact of the trade war, GBP/USD could climb even higher, potentially testing new multi-month highs.
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Current price action shows natural gas testing major support at $3.924. If this level holds, the market could target minor resistance at $4.094, followed by $4.253. The critical trigger point for a decisive upside breakout sits at $4.317. Conversely, a breakdown below current support could accelerate selling pressure toward $3.732, with further downside risk to the major pivot at $3.350.
Weather Catalysts and Demand Factors
The Commodity Weather Group reports a notable shift to cooler temperatures for the eastern United States from April 7-11, potentially boosting heating demand. This weather pattern emerges as US electricity output shows positive growth trends, with the Edison Electric Institute reporting that total lower-48 electricity output rose 0.9% year-over-year to 72,289 GWh for the week ended March 22, while the 52-week period showed a stronger 3.55% increase.
Supply and Production Metrics
Lower-48 state dry gas production stood at 105 bcf/day (+2.9% y/y) on Wednesday, while domestic demand registered at 74.2 bcf/day (-5.2% y/y). LNG net flows to export terminals were 14.2 bcf/day, down 9.6% week-over-week. The Baker Hughes rig count showed active natural gas drilling rigs increased by 1 to 103 for the week ending March 28, which remains significantly below the 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs recorded in September 2022.
Storage Outlook and Market Forecast
Thursday’s EIA storage report is projected to show a build of approximately 25-29 Bcf, considerably bearish compared to the five-year average draw of -13 Bcf. Despite this upcoming injection, the broader storage picture remains supportive for prices. Current inventories stand at 1,744 Bcf, which is 557 Bcf below last year and 122 Bcf below the five-year average. BloombergNEF projects US gas storage will run 10% below the five-year average this summer, suggesting sustained price support.
The longer-term outlook appears increasingly bullish as President Trump’s decision to lift restrictions on LNG export projects advances consideration for approximately a dozen new facilities, which would significantly boost demand for US natural gas and provide structural price support.
During Thursday’s trading session, the bears’ control over the USD/JPY pair increased, with losses extending to the 146.80 support level.
This is the lowest for the pair in over three weeks, before stabilizing around 147.25 at the time of writing.
The pair’s losses increased as investors flocked to safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump announced comprehensive reciprocal tariffs, raising fears of a devastating global trade war.
Trump imposed additional tariffs of 34% on China, bringing the total tariffs to 54%. Other major economies facing hefty tariffs include the European Union (20%), Japan (24%), India (26%), in addition to a base tariff of 10% on imports from all countries. Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic growth. While the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates again later this year, uncertainty about global trade and domestic economic conditions continues to overshadow the outlook.
Trading Tips:
We still recommend buying the US dollar against the Japanese yen, but without risk, spreading your trading amount across multiple levels, and monitoring the factors affecting the currency pair’s performance.
Japanese Stocks Negatively Affected by Trump’s Tariff Announcement
During today’s trading session and across stock trading platforms, the Nikkei 225 index fell 2.77% to close at 34,736 points, while the Topix index fell 3.08% to 2,569 points. Japanese stocks fell to their lowest levels in several months after US President Donald Trump announced comprehensive reciprocal tariffs, raising fears of a global trade war that could destabilize major economies.
Trump imposed 24% tariffs on Japanese goods, along with a 25% tariff on auto imports, dealing a severe blow to the Japanese auto industry. In response, Japanese Trade Minister Yuji Muto stated that his country would continue to request an exemption, announcing the formation of a task force to assess the impact of the US tariffs.
According to trading, all sectors declined, with heavy losses among the index’s leading companies, such as Mitsubishi UFJ (-7.2%), Toyota (-5.2%), Kawasaki Heavy Industries (-7.1%), Nintendo (-3.3%), and Advantest (-4.5%). In corporate news, Nissan shares fell 3.7% after reports confirmed it had suspended part of its production line in Mexico as previously planned.
Bank of Japan Governor Warns of Global Trade Risks
This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the new US tariffs could have a significant impact on global trade and economic growth. In his speech to the Japanese parliament, Ueda stressed the uncertainty surrounding the potential effects of reciprocal tariffs on trade flows, business sentiment, and inflation. The new tariffs, which take effect on April 3, include 25% tariffs on car imports. These tariffs are in addition to existing US tariffs on aluminium and steel, and higher tariffs on all Chinese imports.
Ueda intends to raise these concerns at the upcoming G20 meeting, where US trade policies and their implications will be a major point of discussion. Analysts indicate that the economic fallout could influence the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, with a rate hike expected in the third quarter of 2025, possibly in July.
USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:
According to the daily chart performance, the bears’ control over the USD/JPY pair is strengthening, and recent losses may push some technical indicators towards strong oversold levels, led by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicator. Therefore, we recommend considering buying from the support levels of 146.70, 145.80, and 145.00, respectively. Conversely, on the same timeframe, the 152.00 resistance will remain the most important for the bulls to take control of the USD/JPY trend. Technically, the pair will continue to lean downwards until the reaction to the US jobs data announcement tomorrow, which will have an impact on market expectations for the future of the US Federal Reserve’s policies.
Platinum price declined below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983, and tackled $955.60, and retested this barrier anew, while settling above the 55 SMA.
As major indicators conflict, the price will likely engage in sideways trading for some time, but a drop below the 55 SMA would activate the negative path and send the price towards $950.00, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Expected trading range today is between $950.00 and $985.
