The GBPJPY pair ended the last bearish scenario by recording the previously suggested targets, reaching 209.95 level to rebound quickly to settle above 210.40 level, to activate the attempts of recovering the losses in the near and medium period.

The stability above the current support will help it to form several bullish waves, to expect targeting 212.40 and 213.25 level, while the price return to settle below the support level and providing a daily close below it will confirm its readiness to form strong bearish waves, to reach 209.10 initially, reaching the next support near 208.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 210.70 and 212.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

2026.09.04 2026.09.04
GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 04.09.26–11.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 1.3470 with a target of 1.3870–1.4140. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.3470. Stop Loss: below 1.3425, Take Profit: 1.3870–1.4140.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.3470 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140. A sell signal: the level of 1.3470 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.3515, Take Profit: 1.3275–1.3140.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 1.3470 with a target of 1.3870–1.4140.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 1.3470 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A), and wave 3 of (А) is unfolding. Apparently, the third wave iii of 3 is developing on the daily time frame, within which a local correction has formed as wave (ii) of iii. Wave (iii) of iii is developing on the H4 chart, with wave iii of (iii) unfolding as its part. If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to rise to 1.3870–1.4140. The level of 1.3470 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

The dollar-yen is suddenly a lot more interesting to me. This is a major swing low that we find ourselves testing again. It was interesting that the initial reaction was to go to the upside. Makes sense: interest rate spike. I think there’s a real chance of a bounce here, but having said that, there’s a lot of fear out there about the Bank of Japan. I think longer term, the Bank of Japan has very limited options, but it is an interesting turnaround.

So, I’ll be watching this today to see how it plays out. We can see that it is getting pretty aggressive. I think somebody’s trying to keep this from popping higher based on the action that I see right now. That being said, if we take out the top of this candlestick, that’d be pretty bullish.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Story Continues

The first area I will be watching is 99.12, as the downwards support zone begins there. Breaking below this would expose 98.90, 98.72, and 98.56. In the opposite direction, looking at the previous support zone of 99.35 – 99.48 and adding 99.62, the resistance zone starts to form there.

RSI has dropped and begun to enter oversold territory, so a bounce in the index is possible, but I also believe that the DXY will drop furtherwhen trading below the 99.48 range. I will reverse that opinion if the index breaks above the 99.62 range, but I believe the rallies will be corrective in nature rather than a strong downtrend.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Bounces From 1.3477 but 1.3526 Resistance Keeps Bears in Control

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3500 level on the 4-hour chart as price rebounds from the support zone of 1.3477. What I want to point out is that price is bouncing out of a support zone, but is below both moving averages and the 1.3526 support area which is now an area of resistance.

1.3526 is the first resistance area, followed by the resistance area of 1.3565 and 1.3601. Beyond those, resistance is expected to cluster around the area of 1.3656-1.3676. 1.3477 is the next support area, with potential support at 1.3435 and 1.3400 should 1.3477 break.

RSI is recovering from deeply oversold territory. This leads to believing that the pair may continue to climb, however, I am still bias to the below 1.3526 and 1.3565 bearish resistance zone. Should 1.3565 bullish resistance zone break, I will black a resistance call. Until then I believe this is a corrective rally in a weaker bullish short-term trend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Rebounds From 1.1571 but 1.1610–1.1625 Is the Real Test

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1608. The pair has been bought aggressively on the 1.1571 support level, and what has been interesting is how quickly the pair has bounced from oversold levels. That said, the level that is currently more important is the previous support zone and the descending trendline.

The pair has bounced directly into the zone, rather than the bounce itself.

1.161–1.1625 and 1.1659 are immediate resistance level regions currently. Above 1.1659, buyers would be focused on 1.1686 and 1.1711. Sellers continue to define 1.1571 as the first major support level on the downside with 1.1547 and ultimately 1.1517.

RSI recovering in oversold territory favors the bullish scenario. I’m neutral, but I favour market bears, as long as EUR/USD is below 1.1625. A decisive close above 1.1625 would lead me to a more bearish outlook. A retest of the area around 1.1571 would also be of interest.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

More From FXEMPIRE:

The EURJPY pair activated with negative pressure yesterday, forming a sharp decline to surpass the previously suggested negative stations, resuming the bearish trend by reaching 182.50.

We expect forming negative attempts in the current trading, to target 182.10 level then attempts to press on the support near 181.35, while regaining the bullish trend requires forming a strong bullish rebound, to settle above 184.30 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 181.35 and 183.90

Trend forecast: Bearish

Arthur Hayes predicts EURJPY will fall to 140 or below by mid-2027, with year-end 2026 targets for Ether, Ethena and Ether.fi.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

The U.S. Dollar Indexis currently trading at 99.23 on the 2-hour chart after dropping below the recovering channel from the August lows. What is interesting is how quickly the index was rejected at the 99.80 – 99.86 range. DXY lost 99.62, 99.48, and 99.35 very quickly, which shows how much the structure of the bullish recovery has weakened.

The first area I will be watching is 99.12, as the downwards support zone begins there. Breaking below this would expose 98.90, 98.72, and 98.56. In the opposite direction, looking at the previous support zone of 99.35 – 99.48 and adding 99.62, the resistance zone starts to form there.

RSI has dropped and begun to enter oversold territory, so a bounce in the index is possible, but I also believe that the DXY will drop furtherwhen trading below the 99.48 range. I will reverse that opinion if the index breaks above the 99.62 range, but I believe the rallies will be corrective in nature rather than a strong downtrend.

Westpac analysts expect USD/JPY to test 162 in September before retreating to 154 by end-2027 and 146 by the end of 2028.

The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate slipped to 159.6004 on Wednesday, leaving Westpac’s September forecast target of 162 around 1.5% above spot.

USD/JPY had climbed as high as 160.3872 during the previous 48 hours before reversing sharply, while the daily decline reached 0.37%.

View full size

The chart above shows the pair giving back its advance through 160.30 and finishing near the bottom of its 159.4938-160.3872 range.

Westpac’s September call is effectively for one more test higher rather than an unprecedented breakout.

The pair traded as high as 163.9798 in July, so 162 has already proved reachable this summer.

What follows in Westpac’s forecast curve is far more interesting.

The bank sees USD/JPY easing to 160 in December and remaining there in March 2027, before falling to 158 in June, 156 in September and 154 at the end of next year.

The decline then continues at a remarkably steady pace: 152 in March 2028, 150 in June, 148 in September and 146 in December.

From the forecast peak of 162 to the final 146 target, that would be a 9.9% fall in USD/JPY and an appreciation of almost 11% for the Yen against the Dollar.

The Yen recovery is not built on aggressive Fed cuts

Westpac’s accompanying interest-rate forecasts make the currency path more striking.

The bank keeps the Federal Funds rate at 3.625% throughout the forecast period, rather than relying on a sizeable US easing cycle to pull USD/JPY lower.

It also expects the US 10-year Treasury yield to ease only modestly, from 4.65% in September to 4.55% in the first half of 2027.

The yield then rises gradually to 4.85% by December 2028, precisely when USD/JPY reaches 146.

In other words, Westpac is forecasting a major Yen recovery without a lasting collapse in US yields.

The published figures do not include a separate Japanese interest-rate path or written explanation for the move, so it would be wrong to assign the decline to one specific catalyst.

Still, the curve fits a market increasingly focused on whether Japanese policy can take over from direct currency support.

As we noted in our recent Yen analysis, intervention can deliver an abrupt move but has struggled to overcome the interest-rate gap for long.

Westpac’s numbers instead describe a slow adjustment lasting more than two years.

These are dated forecast points rather than promised trading stops, but the message is unusually clear: 162 may come first, while the bigger move is eventually lower.

Friday’s Japanese household-spending figures and US employment report provide the next test, with Westpac forecasting a 70,000 rise in payrolls against a market estimate of 55,000.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.