ING expects EUR/USD to remain supported around 1.1500 following the sharp Dollar selloff, although a sustained move above 1.1600 would require a further dovish repricing of US interest rates.

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) gained just over 1% in July, recovering from a monthly low near 1.1354 and reaching a high around 1.1547.

EUR/USD pair remains 1.7% lower for 2026, having fallen from January’s peak at 1.2075 to a year-to-date low of 1.1325 in June.

The latest 48-hour chart above shows the pair rising from below 1.1440 to above 1.1530, leaving it close to the upper end of its recent range. The daily chart also shows EUR/USD moving back above its 20-day moving average, although it remains close to the declining 50-day average.

ING believes the sharp change in Dollar momentum leaves the Euro better supported in the near term.

The Greenback came under pressure after the Federal Reserve delivered a more dovish message than markets had expected. Investors were left questioning whether policymakers would follow through on their inflation-fighting rhetoric with actual rate increases.

The US Dollar’s decline accelerated after US core PCE inflation rose only 0.1% in June and second-quarter growth undershot expectations.

Suspected Japanese intervention against the Yen added to the pressure by triggering a sharp fall in USD/JPY and spilling over into broader Dollar sentiment.

Positioning may also keep the move going.

ING estimates that speculative long-Dollar exposure against other major currencies was at its most stretched since January 2025, while leveraged funds held their largest EUR/USD short positions since 2021.

According to the bank, “there may still be room for further USD long-squeezing”, making it too early to call a firm bottom in the Dollar selloff.

Analysts at ING note EUR/USD broke through 1.1500 “with little resistance” and expects the level to attract buyers for a while longer.

The bank sees near-term risks tilted towards further Euro gains, although it is cautious about chasing a sustained move above 1.1600.

Such a break would probably require another material repricing lower in US rates, together with an easing in Middle East tensions.

For now, ING expects buyers to continue emerging around 1.1500, with 1.1600 marking the more difficult test for the recovery.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Exchange Rates UK Research’s latest August 2026 survey of major investment banks suggests the Pound to Euro exchange rate is trading above where most institutions believe it will settle over the medium term.

With GBP/EUR currently at 1.1694, close to its highest level in more than a year, the majority of banks expect the exchange rate to drift back towards 1.14-1.16 through 2027.

Only a handful of institutions forecast sterling strengthening beyond 1.19.

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Latest Survey Suggests Sterling’s Outperformance May Moderate

The latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll reveals a more balanced outlook than recent price action would suggest.

Bullish forecasts from Bank of America, UBS and Credit Agricole see GBP/EUR holding between 1.18 and 1.20, implying Pound Sterling can maintain most of its recent gains.

However, the majority of banks – including Citi, CIBC, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, ING, MUFG, Natixis, Nomura, Rabobank, SEB and Scotiabank – expect the pair to ease back into the 1.12-1.16 region over the next 12 to 24 months.

Overall, the survey average points to modest Pound Sterling weakness from current levels rather than another sustained leg higher.

That outlook follows a strong rally.

GBP/EUR has climbed steadily over the past four months, rising from around 1.14 in March to almost 1.17, with July marking a third consecutive monthly gain.

The pair is now trading at its strongest levels since mid-2025 after advancing around 2.5% over the period.

BoE Advantage Narrowing as ECB Turns More Hawkish

A recurring theme across the latest forecasts is that the interest-rate advantage which has underpinned sterling may begin to narrow.

The Bank of England kept Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% this week, but the decision was accompanied by a three-way split on the Monetary Policy Committee and fresh warnings that energy-driven inflation risks remain elevated.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has also paused, but policymakers continue to signal that another interest-rate increase remains possible if higher energy prices feed through into broader inflation pressures.

Eurozone inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 2.9% in July, reinforcing expectations that the ECB could tighten policy again later this year.

This has reduced expectations that UK interest rates will remain significantly above those in the Eurozone for an extended period.

GBP/EUR Outlook: Consensus Favours Gradual Retreat Rather Than Sharp Reversal

The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey suggests the pound remains fundamentally well supported, but that much of the recent good news may already be reflected in current exchange rates.

Rather than forecasting a sharp reversal, most banks expect GBP/EUR to gradually move back towards the mid-1.10s as monetary policy differences become less pronounced and Eurozone fundamentals improve.

For businesses and holidaymakers buying euros, today’s exchange rate remains close to the strongest seen for more than a year.

If the latest survey proves accurate, these levels could represent some of the most favourable buying opportunities before GBP/EUR settles back towards longer-term equilibrium.

However, if the pair continues to drop below the 157 level, it will open the door for a continued decline toward the 152 area. This level is marked by the red dotted support line.

But the RSI indicator shows an extremely oversold condition in the short term and indicates a rebound before the next drop. A recovery above 161.50 will suggest that the bottom has formed. This bottom may allow the pair to continue upside.

In Closing

The BOJ has opened the door to another interest rate hike. Rising producer prices, strong wage growth and higher inflation expectations support the tighter policy. The weak yen also increases imported inflation. In my view, the BOJ may raise the policy rate to 1.25% in September or October. It could delay the move if inflation eases or the yen continues to recover.

The higher Japanese interest rates could place further pressure on USDJPY. A continued decline below 157 may push the pair toward the 150-152 area. But the oversold conditions could trigger the short term rebound first. A recovery above 161.50 would indicate that the bottom is confirmed and the pair is ready to move higher again.

Read more: BOJ Rate Hike to 1.25% Puts Japanese Yen in Focus

The EUR/USD pair closes July with modest gains near the 1.1500 mark, adding over 1.1% in the last trading week. Price action throughout the month was dull to say the least as investors remained clueless, although the pair managed to hit 1.1530 ahead of the close. The lack of action was compounded by persistent uncertainty, centered on developments in the Middle East and the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed ) monetary policy path.

Regarding the first, an escalation of the US-Iran war spurred US Dollar (USD) demand at the beginning of the week after continued tit-for-tat attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, which, by the way, is once again closed. Mood improved early in the week amid a pause in attacks and headlines suggesting a fresh round of negotiations.

Renewed war headlines, however, were quickly overshadowed by the US Fed monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The USD plunged after the central bank decided to leave the benchmark rate unchanged, with the split vote leaving it at a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Three regional bank presidents dissented, preferring an immediate 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike: Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, and Dallas’s Lorie Logan.

Chairman Kevin Warsh chickens out

The USD collapsed following the Fed’s decision as investors believed Chair Warsh had chickened out. He kept repeating his commitment to curb inflation and to price stability, but the Fed left rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.

Of course, he did not provide clear guidance on the future path of monetary policy, not actually a surprise. And he failed to specify how he intends to resolve five-year-long inflationary pressure despite affirming that there is no “soft” inflation target.

“We are on the job, we will deliver, we are focused like a laser on making sure we can do it, but the suggestion that we’re going to be able to do it with our magic wand is one I want to disabuse you and everyone else of,” Warsh said.

Market players did not take well to the myriad empty words and the lack of action. However, bets on a September rate hike have increased after the dust settled. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a hike increased to 65% from 55% one week before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement.

Still, there’s a long way ahead of September, and loads could happen in the way. The focus will remain on data — inflation and employment figures — and Middle East developments.

Meanwhile, the US published the preliminary estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.5%, missing expectations and below the Q1 reading of 2.1%. Other details of the report showed that the GDP Price Index jumped to 6.3% in Q2 from 3.6% in Q1, while the quarterly core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, increased 3.3% on a yearly basis, matching the market expectation. In June, the core PCE Price Index ticked lower on a yearly basis, to 3.3% from 3.4% in May, still far above the Fed’s 2% goal.

Middle East crisis here to stay

US President Donald Trump said for the umpteenth time on Friday that the war is “going well” and that the US “keeps winning.” No strikes between Washington and Tehran were reported by the end of the week, a short truce that at least was enough to contain fears. Still, unrest leads the region as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined to the levels seen before the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), while Kuwait and Egypt reported Iranian attacks early Friday.

On a positive note, US President Trump announced an historic agreement to secure the disarmament of Hamas, while a senior Hamas official confirmed it to CNN, contingent on Israel upholding its obligations. This is the first time Hamas has agreed to a specific plan to hand over weapons.

The song remains the same: the US demands Iran drops its nuclear program, while Iran requests full control of the critical sea passage. Neither side is willing to give up on those terms.

Euro finds support in data

Data coming from Europe provided support to the Euro: Germany and the Eurozone (EU) released the preliminary estimates of the Q2 GDP. Annualized growth in Germany rose 0.9%, modest yet better than the 0.4% posted in Q1. The EU figure printed at 1%, up from the previous 0.3%.

German inflation met expectations as the preliminary estimate of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices printed at 2.8% YoY, higher than the 2.4% from June. The EU HICP in the same period resulted in 2.5%, in line with expectations and slightly above the previous 2.4%.

Still, financial markets price in roughly a 65% probability that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver a 25 bps rate hike at the September meeting. Again, too early to speculate about that.

Regardless, European data was encouraging enough to spook concerns, which ended up helping the Euro on its way north. It should not be a surprise, however, if the Greenback resumes its rally on the back of war-related fears.

What’s next in the docket

The first week of August will be a busy one. Germany will kick-start macroeconomic releases by publishing June Retail Sales, while the US will publish the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday. The ISM Services PMI will be out on Wednesday, while EU June Retail Sales are scheduled for Thursday.

S&P Global, alongside local banks, will release the final estimates of the July PMIs for major economies throughout the week.

Midweek, the focus will turn to employment as the US releases June JOLTS Job Openings, the July ADP Employment Change report, and July Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. The US is expected to have added 91K new jobs in the month, up from the 57K added in June, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.3%, up from the 4.2% posted in June.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:

From a technical perspective, based on the daily chart, EUR/USD has partially recovered its bullish poise. The pair has run past a now mildly bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1430, although it remains below the 100-day and 200-day simple SMAs at 1.1568 and 1.1631, respectively, keeping the broader backdrop bearish despite the latest bounce. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned lower but stands at 58, while the Momentum indicator holds flat above its midline, suggesting that buying interest has improved, though not enough to confirm a trend change.

In the weekly chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias, holding below the 20-week SMA at 1.1565 while still trading above the 100- and 200-week SMAs at 1.1311 and 1.1032, respectively. Technical indicators have rotated higher, but remain below their midlines, reflecting the latest advance yet far from suggesting a bullish extension ahead.

On the topside, initial resistance is at the 100-day SMA near 1.1568, with the 200-day SMA at around 1.1631 as the next significant barrier if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day SMA at 1.1424, where a break would expose a deeper pullback toward the June low at 1.1324.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed credibility questions underpin USD SSA spreads as EUR and GBP seen outperforming

According to TD Securities, recent price action has seen “US swap spreads have tightened, and the yield curve has steepened,” reshaping relative value across rates and credit markets. The bank argues that “questions around the Fed’s credibility are supportive for USD SSA G-spreads,” and, in this context, it “look[s] for front-end EUR and GBP to outperform vs USD” as investors reassess opportunities along the front end of major curves.

MUFG says the Bank of England’s hawkish hold should keep Sterling supported, but Governor Bailey’s pushback against imminent rate increases limits the scope for a sustained GBP/USD rally.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) ended July around 1.3482 after gaining 1.75% over the month and rebounding strongly from lows below 1.33.

GBP/USD rose around 0.85% over the final 48 hours of July, reaching a high near 1.3495 and finishing close to the top of that range.

Over the past three months, the pair has traded between approximately 1.3142 and 1.3658, leaving the latest rate near the middle of its broader spring and summer range.

MUFG believes the Bank of England’s latest communication remains supportive for Sterling, although policymakers stopped short of signalling an imminent rate increase.

The Monetary Policy Committee left rates unchanged, with MUFG’s textual analysis describing the written contributions as consistent with a hawkish hold. Policymakers continued to emphasise inflation persistence, second-round effects and the risks posed by energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

The committee remains divided. MUFG’s framework placed Catherine Mann firmly in hawkish territory, followed by Huw Pill and Megan Greene, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor remained on the dovish wing.

Mann’s shift was particularly notable, with her comments placing greater weight on inflation risks arising from Middle East tensions and volatile energy prices.

The press conference delivered a more balanced signal than the written statement, however.

MUFG scored the MPC contributions at 23.3 on its hawk-dove scale, compared with a softer 17.0 for Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference.

Bailey explicitly warned markets not to leave the meeting believing that the MPC was “edging towards a hike”.

That distinction is important for Pound Sterling.

The BoE remains concerned enough about inflation to resist a dovish shift, supporting UK yields and the Pound, but it is not yet preparing investors for another tightening move.

According to MUFG, “the communication remains supportive, but the deliberate pushback against rate hike expectations limits the scope for upside.”

The Pound-Dollar exchange rate charts reinforce that mixed picture.

GBP/USD has recovered above both its short-term moving averages, but remains below the May high near 1.3658.

A clean move through 1.3500 would improve the immediate technical tone, while the 1.3550-1.3660 area is likely to offer stronger resistance.

Pound Sterling’s rebound can therefore extend while the Dollar remains under pressure, but MUFG’s assessment suggests the BoE alone is unlikely to drive GBP/USD decisively beyond its recent highs.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The EUR/USD pair closes July with modest gains near the 1.1500 mark, adding over 1.1% in the last trading week. Price action throughout the month was dull to say the least as investors remained clueless, although the pair managed to hit 1.1530 ahead of the close. The lack of action was compounded by persistent uncertainty, centered on developments in the Middle East and the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed ) monetary policy path.

Regarding the first, an escalation of the US-Iran war spurred US Dollar (USD) demand at the beginning of the week after continued tit-for-tat attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, which, by the way, is once again closed. Mood improved early in the week amid a pause in attacks and headlines suggesting a fresh round of negotiations.

Renewed war headlines, however, were quickly overshadowed by the US Fed monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The USD plunged after the central bank decided to leave the benchmark rate unchanged, with the split vote leaving it at a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Three regional bank presidents dissented, preferring an immediate 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike: Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, and Dallas’s Lorie Logan.

Chairman Kevin Warsh chickens out

The USD collapsed following the Fed’s decision as investors believed Chair Warsh had chickened out. He kept repeating his commitment to curb inflation and to price stability, but the Fed left rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.

Of course, he did not provide clear guidance on the future path of monetary policy, not actually a surprise. And he failed to specify how he intends to resolve five-year-long inflationary pressure despite affirming that there is no “soft” inflation target.

“We are on the job, we will deliver, we are focused like a laser on making sure we can do it, but the suggestion that we’re going to be able to do it with our magic wand is one I want to disabuse you and everyone else of,” Warsh said.

Market players did not take well to the myriad empty words and the lack of action. However, bets on a September rate hike have increased after the dust settled. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a hike increased to 65% from 55% one week before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement.

Still, there’s a long way ahead of September, and loads could happen in the way. The focus will remain on data — inflation and employment figures — and Middle East developments.

Meanwhile, the US published the preliminary estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.5%, missing expectations and below the Q1 reading of 2.1%. Other details of the report showed that the GDP Price Index jumped to 6.3% in Q2 from 3.6% in Q1, while the quarterly core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, increased 3.3% on a yearly basis, matching the market expectation. In June, the core PCE Price Index ticked lower on a yearly basis, to 3.3% from 3.4% in May, still far above the Fed’s 2% goal.

Middle East crisis here to stay

US President Donald Trump said for the umpteenth time on Friday that the war is “going well” and that the US “keeps winning.” No strikes between Washington and Tehran were reported by the end of the week, a short truce that at least was enough to contain fears. Still, unrest leads the region as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined to the levels seen before the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), while Kuwait and Egypt reported Iranian attacks early Friday.

On a positive note, US President Trump announced an historic agreement to secure the disarmament of Hamas, while a senior Hamas official confirmed it to CNN, contingent on Israel upholding its obligations. This is the first time Hamas has agreed to a specific plan to hand over weapons.

The song remains the same: the US demands Iran drops its nuclear program, while Iran requests full control of the critical sea passage. Neither side is willing to give up on those terms.

Euro finds support in data

Data coming from Europe provided support to the Euro: Germany and the Eurozone (EU) released the preliminary estimates of the Q2 GDP. Annualized growth in Germany rose 0.9%, modest yet better than the 0.4% posted in Q1. The EU figure printed at 1%, up from the previous 0.3%.

German inflation met expectations as the preliminary estimate of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices printed at 2.8% YoY, higher than the 2.4% from June. The EU HICP in the same period resulted in 2.5%, in line with expectations and slightly above the previous 2.4%.

Still, financial markets price in roughly a 65% probability that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver a 25 bps rate hike at the September meeting. Again, too early to speculate about that.

Regardless, European data was encouraging enough to spook concerns, which ended up helping the Euro on its way north. It should not be a surprise, however, if the Greenback resumes its rally on the back of war-related fears.

What’s next in the docket

The first week of August will be a busy one. Germany will kick-start macroeconomic releases by publishing June Retail Sales, while the US will publish the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday. The ISM Services PMI will be out on Wednesday, while EU June Retail Sales are scheduled for Thursday.

S&P Global, alongside local banks, will release the final estimates of the July PMIs for major economies throughout the week.

Midweek, the focus will turn to employment as the US releases June JOLTS Job Openings, the July ADP Employment Change report, and July Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. The US is expected to have added 91K new jobs in the month, up from the 57K added in June, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.3%, up from the 4.2% posted in June.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:

From a technical perspective, based on the daily chart, EUR/USD has partially recovered its bullish poise. The pair has run past a now mildly bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1430, although it remains below the 100-day and 200-day simple SMAs at 1.1568 and 1.1631, respectively, keeping the broader backdrop bearish despite the latest bounce. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned lower but stands at 58, while the Momentum indicator holds flat above its midline, suggesting that buying interest has improved, though not enough to confirm a trend change.

In the weekly chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias, holding below the 20-week SMA at 1.1565 while still trading above the 100- and 200-week SMAs at 1.1311 and 1.1032, respectively. Technical indicators have rotated higher, but remain below their midlines, reflecting the latest advance yet far from suggesting a bullish extension ahead.

On the topside, initial resistance is at the 100-day SMA near 1.1568, with the 200-day SMA at around 1.1631 as the next significant barrier if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day SMA at 1.1424, where a break would expose a deeper pullback toward the June low at 1.1324.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed credibility questions underpin USD SSA spreads as EUR and GBP seen outperforming

According to TD Securities, recent price action has seen “US swap spreads have tightened, and the yield curve has steepened,” reshaping relative value across rates and credit markets. The bank argues that “questions around the Fed’s credibility are supportive for USD SSA G-spreads,” and, in this context, it “look[s] for front-end EUR and GBP to outperform vs USD” as investors reassess opportunities along the front end of major curves.

UK economists expect the GBP/USD exchange rate to retreat in the near-term outlook as steady BoE rates and doubts over the durability of hawkish policy guidance weigh on Pound Sterling.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded around 1.3443 on Friday morning after gaining more than 1.3% over the previous two sessions.

GBP/USD closed Thursday at 1.3461, leaving the pair 1.6% higher for July but still below the month’s 1.3558 peak.

Rabobank expects that recovery to fade, forecasting Cable in a 1.32–1.33 range over the next one to three months.

The bank’s argument is that markets have already tightened UK monetary conditions on the Bank of England’s behalf by pricing further rate increases and pushing borrowing costs higher.

“In RaboResearch’s view, the heavy lifting done by the market may help the Bank avoid an actual hike in policy rates,” Rabobank said.

Thursday’s BoE decision reinforced that possibility. Bank Rate remained at 3.75%, despite three policymakers voting for an immediate increase.

The vote looked hawkish, but the majority still preferred to wait for clearer evidence that higher energy costs were feeding into wages and domestic prices.

Rabobank believes markets will initially continue “taking the BoE’s hawkish rhetoric at face value and maintain its expectations of rate hikes”.

The risk is that investors eventually demand action.

The bank questioned whether another unchanged decision could cause markets to doubt whether the Monetary Policy Committee is “truly focused on its inflation mandate”, particularly if policymakers continue talking tough without raising rates.

The latest Exchange Rates UK forecast survey poll, see chart above, broadly supports Rabobank’s near-term caution. The median bank projection falls to around 1.33 by the end of the third quarter before recovering gradually through 2027 and moving above 1.40 in late 2028.

Rabobank is less convinced about the Pound’s medium-term prospects.

“Further out we see risk that UK fiscal concerns will combine with steady BoE rates to weigh on the pound,” the bank said.

The UK labour market remains central to that view. Before the energy shock, weaker employment conditions had supported expectations that the BoE would cut rates this year.

Recent signs of stabilisation have complicated the picture and may increase the risk of “second order price effects” as oil prices rise again.

Rabobank said stronger labour data or “another ramp higher in UK CPI inflation data” could increase pressure on the Bank “to put its money where its mouth is”.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Rabobank Targets 1.32–1.33 as BoE Credibility Faces a Test

Rabobank’s range implies that Thursday’s move above 1.34 will not be sustained.

A decline to 1.33 would reverse much of the latest rally, while 1.32 would return Cable towards the lower part of its recent trading range.

The Dollar side is also important. Sterling benefited when short-term US yields and the greenback fell after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, but Rabobank does not view that as enough to secure a lasting Pound advance.

Its central judgement is that the BoE may continue using hawkish language while avoiding an actual increase.

That strategy can support Sterling only while markets believe a hike remains credible. Rabobank’s 1.32–1.33 forecast suggests that confidence will become harder to maintain.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

• The US dollar plunged against the Japanese yen, with no real news other than the Bank of Japan clearly intervened.

• That being said, this presents a buying opportunity. The 200-day EMA has held as support. We plunged all the way back down to the 158 yen level.

• I’m perfectly comfortable adding to this position.

• This will be about the 3rd or 4th time they’ve intervened. Really all they can do is slowly try to put the brakes on the destruction of the yen.

Unfortunately for the Bank of Japan, they will have very limited ways to get this trend to change. Really the only way they could do it is if they hiked rates aggressively, but that would destroy the Japanese economy. So, this is a sign of desperation I’m more than willing to take advantage of. Keep your leverage reasonable, and it’s something that you can do.

Interest Rate Differentials and Bullish Trend Persistence

I have taken a hit today, but most of my positions go back months, and they’re not huge. Cumulatively they are big, but in general, this is a market that I believe continues to go higher. I think the USD/JPY pair hits the highs again. We’ve already played this movie a couple of times in the past. It will be a grind to the upside. It won’t necessarily be easy; this does tend to spook traders, it has a certain effect, but the trend will not change just based on one action from the Bank of Japan.

The interest rate differential alone continues to get you paid, and it’s interesting because we’ve seen rates in America all over the place, but they are so much higher than Japan that the break-even point is much wider than it is with other currencies. I like this pair, I still buy it, this offers value that I can take advantage of.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The EURJPY pair maintained its sideways movement below the resistance barrier at 187.40 during yesterday’s trading before reacting to the negative economic data. This led to a sharp bearish move, as the pair slipped below the ascending channel support at 185.65, suffering significant losses and reaching 182.45, before quickly rebounding to stabilize around 184.75.

For now, we will rely on the 185.40 level as an important additional resistance barrier. Repeated stability below this level would confirm the pair’s shift toward the bearish scenario, with the price expected to move lower toward 184.00, followed by an attempt to confirm a break below the support level at 183.95.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.00 and 185.30

Trend forecast: Bearish