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17 02, 2025

Sinks below 200-day SMA as USD tumbles

By |2025-02-17T01:52:13+02:00February 17, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • USD/JPY falls to 152.02, erasing February 12 gains as sellers take control.
  • Bearish RSI signals further downside; key support at 150.93 and 148.64.
  • A recovery above 152.73 could open the door to 153.22 and 154.00.

The USD/JPY extended its losses, dropping below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 152.73 and hitting a three-day low of 152.02. Worse than expected, US Retail Sales data weighed on the American currency, which has fallen to a year-to-date (YTD) low, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The pair trades at 152.26, below its opening price by 0.36%.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The downtrend resumed after the February 12 gains were erased during the last few days as sellers regained control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, an indication that further downside lies ahead. Therefore, the USD/JPY’s first support would be the February 7 swing low of 150.93, followed by the December 3 daily low of 148.64.

Conversely, if USD/JPY reclaims the 200-day SMA, the pair could aim for 153.00, followed by the Tenkan-sen at 153.22 and the 154.00 figure.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -0.29% -0.20% -0.29% -0.10% -0.57% -1.01% -0.37%
EUR 0.29%   0.08% 0.00% 0.18% -0.29% -0.73% -0.08%
GBP 0.20% -0.08%   -0.06% 0.10% -0.37% -0.81% -0.16%
JPY 0.29% 0.00% 0.06%   0.17% -0.30% -0.74% -0.10%
CAD 0.10% -0.18% -0.10% -0.17%   -0.48% -0.91% -0.27%
AUD 0.57% 0.29% 0.37% 0.30% 0.48%   -0.45% 0.20%
NZD 1.01% 0.73% 0.81% 0.74% 0.91% 0.45%   0.65%
CHF 0.37% 0.08% 0.16% 0.10% 0.27% -0.20% -0.65%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

 

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16 02, 2025

Pound to Dollar FX Predictions: 2025 GBP/USD Peak Already in?

By |2025-02-16T23:51:09+02:00February 16, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

February 16, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

During the week, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) strengthened to 2025 high at 1.2630 as US yields declined, the dollar stumbled and European currencies made headway.

According to ING; “1.25/26 should be the top of the range this year and we are looking for a move to 1.19/20.”

Bank of America still forecasts that dollar weakness will help GBP/USD advance to 1.38 at the end of the year.

RBC expects that GBP/USD overall will struggle for direction with an end-year forecast of 1.24.

Volatility is likely to remain a key element over the next few months, especially with an on-going debate over US tariffs and trade policy.

Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX at Citi commented; “We’re in a place where the dollar is priced for everything positive. It’s going to be very choppy from here – a lot of volatility without necessarily going anywhere.”

RBC notes major uncertainty surrounding the dollar; it sees two major upside risks for the dollar and two downside risks.

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One upside risk is that tariffs turn out to be more aggressive and last longer than expected.

A second threat is that risk appetite slides amid fears over US inflation trends.

On the other hand, it expects the dollar will tend to come under pressure if there is an unexpected US economic weakness and a move by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively.

A sustained period of underperformance by US equities would also undermine the US currency.

US asset-price moves will inevitably be influenced to an important extent by tariffs with the US looking to enforce reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners.

Danske Bank commented; “While tariff headlines remain a notable driver of FX price action, it seems markets increasingly view them as a negotiation tactic, with a fading impact. Our bias remains that Trump will ultimately underdeliver on tariffs, though further announcements are likely in the coming months.”

Despite initial strength, Bank of America expects the dollar will eventually lose out; “we argue that in a scenario of US tariffs against the rest of the world and full retaliation, the USD could weaken as second-round effects take over.”

It added; “Although the US economy is less dependent on trade, it would be more vulnerable than most economies if it is the US against the rest of the world in a trade war.”

Latest UK GDP data was slightly stronger than expected with 0.4% growth for December driving 0.1% growth for the fourth quarter compared with consensus forecasts of a slight decline.

Overall confidence in the outlook, however, remains fragile.

According to HSBC; “Our economics team have revised down their 2025 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 1.4% previously given this weakness in private demand, and an expectation that support from public spending is set to flounder.”

Standard Chartered took a similar view; “given the lack of momentum in H2, as well as our expectation of additional fiscal tightening on the spending front in the coming months, we lower our 2025 growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.3% previously.”

It added; “on balance, we would expect a faster pace of rate cuts from the BoE should labour market metrics show a clear deterioration.”

According to ING; “The next couple of months could be key for this story if, as we expect, the UK shifts to a tighter fiscal/looser monetary policy setting.”

It added; “Weaker growth and higher debt servicing costs mean that the UK government will probably have to announce real terms spending cuts in March.”

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16 02, 2025

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

By |2025-02-16T21:50:07+02:00February 16, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

I wrote on 9th February that the best trade opportunities for the week were likely to be:

  • Long of Gold in USD terms (also known as XAU/USD) following a daily close of spot Gold above $2,867.25. The price fell by 1.57% over the week after this trade set up at Monday’s close.
  • Long of Corn futures (CORN etf can also be used) following a daily close of the next ZC future at or above 498. This did not set up.
  • Long of Coffee futures (COFF etf can also be used) following a daily close of the next KC future at or above 403.95. The price fell by 3.75% over the week after this trade set up at Monday’s close.

The weekly loss of 5.32% equals 1.77% per asset. However, my weekly forecast of rising Yen crosses was more than enough to make up for these losses and put the week into profit.

Last week saw several data releases affecting the Forex market:

  1. US CPI (inflation) – this came in slightly higher than expected, at an annualized rate of 3.0%, while only 2.9% was expected. The month-on-month increase was higher than expected. This gave a bit of a hawkish tilt on the US Dollar, although the greenback still lost value over the week.
  2. Fed Chair Powell testifies before US Congress – the testimony was a bit hawkish while being optimistic on inflation, but Powell made it clear that the Fed is in “no hurry” to cut rates. It is now expected that there will be no further rate cuts in the USA over 2025.
  3. US Retail Sales – this was much worse than expected, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9% while a decline of only 0.2% was seen as likely. This suggests that the US consumer may be starting to slow down more significantly.
  4. US PPI – this was a fraction higher than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% while 0.3% was expected. This aligns with the slightly higher than expected inflation rate.
  5. UK GDP – this was better than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% after an increase of 0.1% was seen as likely.
  6. Swiss CPI (inflation) – as expected.
  7. New Zealand Inflation Expectations – 2.06%, lower than the previous expected rate of 2.12%.
  8. US Unemployment Claims – this was almost exactly as expected.

Last week’s key takeaways were:

  1. A more hawkish tilt on rates can be expected from the US Federal Reserve, as inflation ticks fractionally higher and stubbornly refuses to fall to its target at 2%. This leads to the expectation that the Fed will leave rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025. This was backed up by US PPI data.
  2. Despite the hawkish tilt on US monetary policy, and the long-term bullish trend, the greenback declined over the week, while illustrates a kind of weakness in the USD right now.
  3. Stock markets advanced as the “Trump trade” made progress over the week, with the US technology-based NASDAQ 100 Index closing at a record high, with the broader S&P 500 Index trading near its record high which was reached only a few weeks ago.
  4. The Japanese Yen saw strong movement over the week, first losing considerable value on more dovish comments from the Bank of Japan about the future path of rate hikes, but the Yen later regained some of its earlier losses.
  5. There has been muted tariff threats between the USA and the EU, but US tariffs have moved out of focus for now.
  6. The Trump administration has concerned talks with begin with Russia over Ukraine, which triggered a boost in risk-on sentiment, which is a dominant theme right now.

Essentially, we see a more risk-on environment in markets now, with a notable development being the weakening US Dollar. It seems that any flow into safe havens is going to the Japanese Yen and maybe Gold.

A few commodities have been performing strongly and breaking to new record highs, while a few others are also advancing in value.

The coming week has a lighter schedule of releases, so we are likely to see a lower level of activity and volatility in the Forex market.

The coming week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

  1. US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  2. UK CPI (inflation)
  3. Canadian CPI (inflation)
  4. Australian Wage Price Index
  5. Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting
  6. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy Meeting
  7. UK Retail Sales
  8. US, French & German Flash PMI Services & Manufacturing
  9. US Unemployment Claims
  10. Canadian Retail Sales

Monday is a public holiday in the USA and Canada.

For February 2025, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would decline in value. The performance so far is shown below.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

Last week, I forecasted that the following currency pairs would rise in value over the week:

This was a good and profitable call.

This week, I forecast that the following currency crosses will fall in value over the coming week:

The Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the Japanese Yen was the weakest, putting the AUD/JPY currency cross and other Yen crosses in focus. Volatility decreased last week as expected, with 41% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. It is likely to decline again over the coming week.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

Last week, the US Dollar Index again moved lower and invalidated the long-term bullish trend, after making a bearish reversal two weeks ago near the resistance level at 110.00. The most bearish sign is that on Thursday the price finally broke below the nearest former support level at 106.85.

It seems clear that the dominant price action is bearish, while the long term trend is mixed: the price is below its level of 3 months ago but above its level of 6 months ago. However, it looks increasingly as if this trend is over, despite new US tariffs and a more hawkish Fed which is still grappling with inflation which stubbornly remains above its 2% target.

The Dollar is likely to continue falling over the coming week, although this is still technically countertrend so I would not rely on this forecast.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

After making a new record high a few weeks ago, and then making a deep bearish retracement, the broad benchmark S&P 500 US stock index rose firmly last week, to close not far from its record high. The weekly candlestick closed quite near its high, and the highest daily close which remains to be beaten is 6118.71. The price ended last week just a few points below that.

The recent increase in risk appetite has pushed this Index higher and it looks close to a bullish breakout. I am very comfortable being long of the US stock market right now, so I think this looks like a buy if we get a daily close above 6118.71.

The linear regression analysis applied to the daily price chart below shows that the current bullish trend has been driving this market for almost 2 years, which is a relatively mature bull market.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

The price barely made a new record high on Friday after a recent bullish trend sent it higher. The price closed right on the high of its range. These are bullish signs. The NASDAQ 100 Index is leading the S&P 500 as technology stocks usually do. These are all bullish signs.

I am very comfortable being long of the US stock market right now, so I think this looks like a buy now, as we have already had a record high daily close, plus the price traded Friday at a record high price.

Buying the NASDAQ 100 Index in strong bull markets has been an excellent trading strategy since this Index was created in 1985.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

The GBP/USD currency pair printed a large bullish weekly candlestick, reaching its highest price since December 2024.

The British Pound was one of the strongest major currencies, partly because British economic data recently came in much higher than expected. This reduced expectations of forthcoming Bank of England rate cuts which in turn boosted the Pound.

On the other side, the US Dollar was the weakest major currency last week, so this allowed the buoyant Pound to push the price considerably higher.

Despite the relatively bullish picture here, the price is not trading in blue sky and I am not sure this analysis is very actionable, so I will not be trading this currency pair over the coming week.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

Gold advanced last week to reach a new all-time high last Tuesday above $2,942 per ounce. However, later in the week on Friday, the price gave back much of its earlier gain to close not far from the week’s open, which should be a factor of some caution to bulls. On the weekly chart, last week’s price action looks close to a weekly bearish pin bar.

This trend may see a relatively slow rise, but we can see how steadily and strongly Gold gained over the past year, so this looks likely to be a solid trend.

I am far from sure that Gold will reach $3,000 per ounce over the coming week, but this target is certainly in sight now.

Gold seems to be doing well in the current market environment, where both risy and some safe-haven assets are performing well – Gold plays a role as both.

As we saw a stronger bearish element creep in at the end of last week, I’d like to see a new record high daily closing price before entering any new long trade – above $2,926.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

The price chart below shows that Coffee futures have been breaking out to long-term high prices over a period of more than 6 months, with recent week’s price rises being relatively strong. We saw a new record high made last Tuesday, but the price action seen then has been choppy and volatile.

Taking long trades when major commodities break out to new 6-month highs has historically been a very profitable trading strategy, which is the main reason that I want to look for a long trade here.

Due to the choppiness, I want to see a closing price above 425.10 before entering a new long trade. The recent higher volatility and swings up and down near the highs are a sign that the bullish trend may be coming to an end.

Unfortunately, Coffee futures are quite expensive and usually just too large for retail traders, but there is an ETF called COFF which can be used to participate in increases in the price of Coffee. However, note that this ETF does not always cleanly mirror the price action of coffee futures, so if you are using the ETF, be careful.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

Corn futures have been breaking to new highs recently, with the price of Corn trading at a new multi-month high price on Friday. The price action last week is the most bullish of any of the three major commodities which have recently made significant new high prices.

Many analysts question the bullish trend here, seeing the jump in corn prices as an essentially seasonal development, and sure to end soon. This may be true, but I think when trading commodities it is better to be guided by the price than by your own preferred fundamental supply and demand scenario logic.

I think Corn is a buy only if it makes a new daily high closing price, and this does look quite likely to happen as Friday’s close was just a whisker off that.

I will be prepared to enter a new long trade only if we see Corn futures make a new 6-month high closing price at the end of any day over the coming week, above 498.

Weekly Forex Forecast – February 16

I see the best trading opportunities this week as:

  • Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index.
  • Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 6118.71.
  • Long of Gold in USD terms (also known as XAU/USD) following a daily close of spot Gold above $2,926.
  • Long of Corn futures (CORN etf can also be used) following a daily close of the next ZC future at or above 498.
  • Long of Coffee futures (COFF etf can also be used) following a daily close of the next C future at or above 425.10.

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15 02, 2025

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Posts 2025 Best Rate on Dollar Retreat

By |2025-02-15T21:37:21+02:00February 15, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

February 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

Two elements have undermined the US Dollar (USD) over the last 24 hours, but the Pound Sterling (GBP) has made headway.

As markets closed, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was seen trading at 1.25863, while the Dollar to Pound exchange rate (USD/GBP) was at 0.79452.

There has been some relief that the Administration has not moved immediately to impose reciprocal tariffs while lower yields have also undermined the US currency.

Although there are significant doubts surrounding the UK economy, the Pound has been one of the principal winners in global markets.

GBP/CHF, for example, hit 6-month highs just above 1.1400.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has strengthened to 2025 highs just below 1.2600.

UoB commented; “There has been a sharp increase in momentum, and we expect GBP to strengthen further.” It sees initial resistance at 1.2600 and 1.2650.

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The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has edged above the 1.2000 level.

President Trump announced the potential for reciprocal tariffs on international trade partners overnight.

There will be no immediate move to impose tariffs with the Commerce Department engaged in complex calculations and an outcome is expected by April, although there could be a longer delay.

Rabobank commented; “Although the tariffs could cause upheaval in global trade, there is still plenty of hopium that world leaders will try to strike a deal with the US president.”

According to ING, “The outcome is likely to be perhaps some eye-wateringly large tariffs against some of the key countries with which the US runs a goods deficit. The EU will certainly be in the cross-hairs since it looks like Trump is using the threat of tariffs as leverage against the EU’s digital service tax.”

ING added, “We have already been using the assumption of peak trade pressure in the second quarter of this year. The above looks consistent with that and it’s why we think the dollar will move a little stronger into the second quarter. This means the current dollar dip should be a correction rather than a meaningful new trend.”

MUFG, however, is concerned that the Administration will be looking at non-tariff factors in deciding action.

In this context, the bank is also not convinced that the dollar retreat will be sustained; “Taking everything into consideration, we are not convinced that the initial US dollar sell-off on the back of investor relief that the “reciprocal tariffs” will not be implemented until at least April will be sustained for long.”

The headline US producer prices data was slightly stronger than expected, maintaining inflation concerns. However, The components that feed through into the PCE prices index were weaker than expected.

Given that the Federal Reserve targets the PCE prices index, the data offered some reassurance.

MUFG commented, “While it does not provide justification for the Fed to cut rates soon, it has helped to bring forward expectations for the timing of the next Fed rate cut a little.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

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15 02, 2025

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Posts 2025 Best Rate on Dollar Retreat

By |2025-02-15T19:36:16+02:00February 15, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

February 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

Two elements have undermined the US Dollar (USD) over the last 24 hours, but the Pound Sterling (GBP) has made headway.

As markets closed, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was seen trading at 1.25863, while the Dollar to Pound exchange rate (USD/GBP) was at 0.79452.

There has been some relief that the Administration has not moved immediately to impose reciprocal tariffs while lower yields have also undermined the US currency.

Although there are significant doubts surrounding the UK economy, the Pound has been one of the principal winners in global markets.

GBP/CHF, for example, hit 6-month highs just above 1.1400.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has strengthened to 2025 highs just below 1.2600.

UoB commented; “There has been a sharp increase in momentum, and we expect GBP to strengthen further.” It sees initial resistance at 1.2600 and 1.2650.

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The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has edged above the 1.2000 level.

President Trump announced the potential for reciprocal tariffs on international trade partners overnight.

There will be no immediate move to impose tariffs with the Commerce Department engaged in complex calculations and an outcome is expected by April, although there could be a longer delay.

Rabobank commented; “Although the tariffs could cause upheaval in global trade, there is still plenty of hopium that world leaders will try to strike a deal with the US president.”

According to ING, “The outcome is likely to be perhaps some eye-wateringly large tariffs against some of the key countries with which the US runs a goods deficit. The EU will certainly be in the cross-hairs since it looks like Trump is using the threat of tariffs as leverage against the EU’s digital service tax.”

ING added, “We have already been using the assumption of peak trade pressure in the second quarter of this year. The above looks consistent with that and it’s why we think the dollar will move a little stronger into the second quarter. This means the current dollar dip should be a correction rather than a meaningful new trend.”

MUFG, however, is concerned that the Administration will be looking at non-tariff factors in deciding action.

In this context, the bank is also not convinced that the dollar retreat will be sustained; “Taking everything into consideration, we are not convinced that the initial US dollar sell-off on the back of investor relief that the “reciprocal tariffs” will not be implemented until at least April will be sustained for long.”

The headline US producer prices data was slightly stronger than expected, maintaining inflation concerns. However, The components that feed through into the PCE prices index were weaker than expected.

Given that the Federal Reserve targets the PCE prices index, the data offered some reassurance.

MUFG commented, “While it does not provide justification for the Fed to cut rates soon, it has helped to bring forward expectations for the timing of the next Fed rate cut a little.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

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14 02, 2025

Testing 50 Day EMA (Chart)

By |2025-02-14T21:25:17+02:00February 14, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

(MENAFN– Daily Forex)

  • The Euro has rallied during the trading session on Thursday as we are now testing the crucial 50 Day EMA.
  • The 50-day EMA is a significant technical indicator that many traders closely monitor.
  • Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of choppiness, but I believe that the Euro will continue to be rather weak from the longer-term standpoint.

Recent ConsolidationRecently trading in this market has been between the 1.05 level at the top and the 1.02 level at the bottom. At this point, we are getting fairly close to the top, and it’s probably worth noting also that the 1.05 level has a lot of noise that extends all the way to the 1.06 level. Because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where a lot of traders are going to be struggling to break out above there, but if we did see the Euro break that level, then you have to have serious discussions as to whether or not the trend has changed.Top Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money As things stand right now, I don’t see the EUR/USD pair breaking above there, unless something drastically changes in the United States, because the European Union is starting to see signs of life in Germany and France, but they still have a long way to go as far as monetary policy is concerned. In fact, this is part of the problem with the European Union, you have countries like Spain which will be completely different than countries like Greece or Finland. I would not want the job of setting monetary policy in this scenario.EURUSD Chart by TradingViewAs things stand right now, I’m more than willing to start fading signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies, and I think ultimately this is a market that will continue to look for a long wick’s to the upside to start shorting again. This is what I’ve been doing for a couple of months, and until something fundamentally changes, or we break above the 1.06 level, there’s no reason to get long of the Euro.Ready to trade our EUR/USD analysis and predictions ? Here are the best European brokers to choose from.

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14 02, 2025

The EURUSD price surpasses the target – Forecast today

By |2025-02-14T19:24:30+02:00February 14, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Tesla’s stock price (TSLA) rose in the intraday levels after finishing the harmonic short term formation that is the AB/CD pattern, which is a positive pattern, combined with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels, amid the dominance of the main upward trend in the medium term, while still suffering due to trading below the 50-day SMA, hindering upcoming gains. 

 

Therefore we expect more gains for the stock, targeting the important resistance of $377.30, provided the support of $326.60 holds on.

 

Trend forecast for today: Bullish 

 

 



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14 02, 2025

GBP/USD Price Analysis: UK GDP, Tariff Delays Boost Pound

By |2025-02-14T17:23:02+02:00February 14, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The GBP/USD price analysis shows a brighter outlook for the UK economy.
  • The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year.
  • Market participants have lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts.

The GBP/USD price analysis shows a brighter outlook for the UK economy after GDP data revealed an unexpected expansion in Q4 last year. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile as the impact of Trump’s tariff threats faded.

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Data on Thursday revealed that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. This figure came above estimates of a 0.1% contraction. The British economy has slowed down significantly, putting pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. The upbeat report eased some of that pressure, boosting the pound. Market participants are now pricing 54-bps of rate cuts this year by the Bank of England. If the economy shows more bright spots, rate-cut bets will drop.

On the other hand, market participants have lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts due to upbeat inflation data. Both consumer and wholesale inflation figures came in above estimates, suggesting higher rates for longer in the US. Initially, the more hawkish outlook boosted the dollar.

However, the focus shifted to Trump tariffs, leading to a drop in the US currency. Reports revealed that there will be delays in implementing Trump’s reciprocal tariff. As a result, market participants believe this will give countries time to negotiate better trading deals.  

GBP/USD key events today

  • US core retail Sales m/m
  • US retail sales m/m

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls reach a new high above 1.2550

GBP/USD Price Analysis: UK GDP, Tariff Delays Boost Pound
GBP/USD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 1.2550 resistance level to make a new high in the bullish trend. Moreover, the price trades far above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is nearing the overbought level, indicating solid bullish momentum. If the rally continues, the price will reach the 1.2651 level. 

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However, the price has maintained a shallow uptrend on a larger scale. As a result, when the price forms a new high, it is near the previous high. This means the price returns to the bullish support trendline soon after making a new high. 

If this is the case, the price will soon reverse to break below the 30-SMA and retest the support trendline. Nevertheless, it will keep making higher highs if it stays above the trendline.

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14 02, 2025

Euro could extend uptrend if risk flows continue to dominate markets

By |2025-02-14T15:22:12+02:00February 14, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • EUR/USD trades at its highest level in over two weeks above 1.0450.
  • The US economic calendar will feature Retail Sales data for January.
  • US stock index futures trade marginally higher on the day.

EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum in the late American session on Thursday and gained nearly 0.8% on the day. After touching its highest level since January 28 above 1.0470 in the Asian session on Friday, the pair seems to have entered a consolidation phase near 1.0460 in the European morning.

Euro PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -1.47% -1.51% 0.90% -0.89% -0.98% -0.69% -0.65%
EUR 1.47%   0.03% 2.54% 0.73% 0.49% 0.88% 0.90%
GBP 1.51% -0.03%   2.34% 0.65% 0.46% 0.85% 0.88%
JPY -0.90% -2.54% -2.34%   -1.81% -1.80% -1.58% -1.52%
CAD 0.89% -0.73% -0.65% 1.81%   -0.07% 0.17% 0.20%
AUD 0.98% -0.49% -0.46% 1.80% 0.07%   0.39% 0.41%
NZD 0.69% -0.88% -0.85% 1.58% -0.17% -0.39%   0.03%
CHF 0.65% -0.90% -0.88% 1.52% -0.20% -0.41% -0.03%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/USD edged lower in the early American session on Thursday after US President Donald Trump hinted in a social media post that they could announce reciprocal tariffs.

Later in the day, Trump refrained from imposing new tariffs, instead he signed a memo ordering his economics team to devise a plan for reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on US imports. Markets breathed a sigh of relief with this development, allowing risk flows to return and causing the USD to weaken. In turn, EUR/USD gained traction and closed the day decisively higher.

Meanwhile, Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, called German auto tariffs “grossly unfair” and a White House official said that Trump will no longer tolerate the EU’s value-added tax. 

In the second half of the day, January Retail Sales data will be featured in the US economic calendar. Markets expect a decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis. A positive surprise could help the USD stay resilient against its rivals with the immediate reaction. Nevertheless, EUR/USD’s losses are likely to remain limited in case risk flows continue to dominate the action in the financial markets. At the time of press, US stock index futures were trading marginally higher on the day.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays above 70, suggesting that EUR/USD correct lower before extending its uptrend.

On the upside, 1.0500-1.0510 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) could be seen as the resistance area before 1.0550 (static level) and 1.0600 (static level, beginning point of the downtrend). Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.0440 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) ahead of 1.0400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0350-1.0360 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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14 02, 2025

The GBPJPY surrenders to the barrier stability – Forecast today – 14-2-2025

By |2025-02-14T13:21:07+02:00February 14, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The GBPJPY pair ended the recent bullish rally by recording 191.17 level, approaching 193.30 barrier to force it to postpone the bullish attack and provide mixed trades by fluctuating near 191.80.

 

Also, the contradiction between the major indicators by the MA55 consolidation above the mentioned barrier confirm the price surrender to the domination of the sideways bias, to expect moving between the current barrier and 190.80 additional support.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 191.00 and 193.30

 

Trend forecast: Sideways



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