USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 158.50 level as traders focus on rising Treasury yields and react to Household Spending report from Japan. The report showed that Household Spending increased by +0.1% month-over-month in August, compared to analyst forecast of +0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, Household Spending declined by -3.1%, compared to analyst consensus of -3.6%.
USD/JPY has already made several attempts to climb above the 158.50 level, but these attempts yielded no results. If USD/JPY moves above 158.50, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 160.00 – 160.50 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
The GBPJPY pair announced delaying its bearish attack by posting repeated closes above the 208.10 level. This has led to the formation of bullish corrective waves, with the pair currently stabilizing near 206.60.
Despite the conflicting signals from the main indicators, this is unlikely to prevent the pair from recovering further losses incurred previously. Therefore, we expect it to challenge the resistance barrier at 210.40. If the pair breaks above this level and holds there, it could achieve further gains toward 211.25 and 212.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.60 and 210.40.
The EURJPY pair lost its bearish momentum during yesterday’s trading after touching the 176.50 level, maintaining its stability above the additional support at 175.75. The pair then began forming corrective waves, taking advantage of stochastics’ approach toward the 50 level, achieving some gains and reaching 177.75.
The pair may continue its corrective trading; however, its overall stability below the additional resistance barrier at 179.30 supports the dominance of the bearish trend in the upcoming trading sessions. A breakout above this barrier, on the other hand, would give the pair an opportunity to record further gains, potentially reaching 180.10 before renewing pressure on the resistance level near 180.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.80 and 178.70.
Trend forecast: Fluctuating within a bearish trend
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell to a six-day low on Thursday before recovering some ground as volatility across bond markets drove choppy trading in the pairing.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3226, having edged slightly higher on the day.
The Pound (GBP) struggled to find a firm footing on Thursday, as a lack of significant UK economic data left Sterling exposed to wider market movements.
GBP initially came under pressure as UK gilt yields rose to multi-year highs, although borrowing costs later retreated from their peaks.
The sharp rise in yields raised concerns over the government’s financing position ahead of the Autumn Budget, putting additional pressure on the Pound.
As gilt yields subsequently pulled back, however, some of those concerns eased and Sterling was able to claw back its earlier losses.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled to establish a clear direction on Thursday, with changing market sentiment leaving the ‘Greenback’ without a firm bias.
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USD initially strengthened as risk appetite deteriorated.
Oil prices climbed again following recent attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while several US energy companies shut down offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as an approaching hurricane increased operational risks.
Expectations of higher interest rates globally added to the pressure on sentiment.
Markets were also unsettled by reports that several major technology companies were looking to raise billions of Dollars through debt.
However, sentiment recovered somewhat as the session progressed, taking some of the support away from the US Dollar and prompting USD to give up its earlier gains.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Consumer Sentiment in Focus
Looking ahead, the latest US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan will be the main data release to watch on Friday.
US household confidence is expected to have slipped to 47.6 in October, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and taking the index to its lowest level since May.
A reading in line with forecasts could weigh on the US Dollar, leaving the ‘Greenback’ vulnerable to further losses.
Elsewhere, shifts in risk appetite are likely to remain an important influence on the safe-haven US Dollar.
A more cautious approach among investors could lend support to the ‘Greenback’.
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The USD/JPY pair is expected to trade in a narrow range centered on the upper 157-yen level in Tokyo foreign exchange trading on October 9. In overnight overseas trading, the pair briefly broke above the 158-yen level on speculation surrounding potential U.S. military action against Iran, but retreated after President Trump denied any attack before the midterm elections. The pair continues to lack clear direction. With both Japan and the U.S. heading into three-day weekends, traders are likely to refrain from aggressive buying and selling.
In overnight trading, USD/JPY initially rose as reports emerged that the U.S. could resume large-scale military operations against Iran before the midterm elections, sending WTI crude oil futures up more than 5% at one point. U.S. long-term yields climbed in tandem, driving dollar buying. USD/JPY extended gains to around 158.36 yen at its peak.
However, in the New York afternoon session, President Trump posted on his social media that “there will be no attack on Iran before the midterm elections.” Excessive geopolitical risk concerns receded, crude oil prices pared gains, and U.S. long-term yields turned lower. This prompted dollar selling, pushing USD/JPY back down to the upper 157-yen level.
Tsutomu Nakamura, a currency analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute, noted that USD/JPY continued to trade in a range around the 158-yen level in the previous session, with the market lacking decisive catalysts. He attributed the difficulty in finding direction to market attention being concentrated on France’s fiscal and political issues, driving euro-centric price action.
In overnight overseas trading, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims also came in below market expectations, providing support for the dollar. The data underscored labor market resilience, putting upward pressure on U.S. long-term yields and contributing to USD/JPY’s gains.
Key Events Today and Expected Market Reaction
The main economic indicators scheduled for October 9 include Japan’s August Household Survey and the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) for October. However, with regard to Federal Reserve monetary policy, market attention is firmly focused on the U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) due next week on October 14. As a result, the market’s reaction to today’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be limited.
Nakamura noted that the market places the greatest weight on next week’s CPI as the key factor influencing the Fed’s rate hike outlook, and today’s data release is merely a waypoint.
Furthermore, this weekend Japan enters a three-day holiday period including Sports Day, while the U.S. also has a three-day weekend for Columbus Day. With market participants on both sides heading into holidays, there is a strong tendency to avoid trades that significantly shift positions, and thin trading conditions are likely to produce directionless price action.
Forecast Ranges and Market Views
The USD/JPY forecast ranges for today from various firms generally fall between the lower 157-yen level and the mid-158-yen level. Gaitame.com Research Institute projects a range of 157.20 to 158.60 yen, while Wealth Advisor Inc. forecasts 157.40 to 158.30 yen.
Forecaster
USD/JPY Forecast Range
Gaitame.com Research Institute
157.20 – 158.60 yen
Wealth Advisor Inc.
157.40 – 158.30 yen
Note: All figures are forecasts for the Tokyo market on October 9
USD/JPY currently lacks clear direction, continuing to trade in a narrow range centered on the 158-yen level. While the pair occasionally reacts to headlines regarding the Iran situation, it has yet to form a sustained trend.
Market observers point out that France’s fiscal and political issues are drawing attention as a source of euro volatility, with investor interest shifting from USD/JPY to euro-related trading. As a result, USD/JPY has been relatively subdued among major currency pairs, with no clear directional bias emerging.
Next week’s U.S. September CPI release will be a critical indicator for gauging the Fed’s future rate hike pace. While some market participants believe the CPI results could trigger significant moves in USD/JPY, others note that position adjustment ahead of the three-day weekend starting today is likely to take priority.
Key factors that will determine USD/JPY’s future direction include U.S. inflation trends, developments in the Middle East, crude oil price movements, and European political risk emanating from France. Crude oil prices in particular are closely linked to the Iran situation, and the transmission channel through which heightened geopolitical risk feeds into USD/JPY via U.S. long-term yields warrants continued attention.
GBPJPY ended yesterday’s trading with another negative close below the 210.40 level, forming strong bearish waves once again and currently approaching the additional support at 208.10, thereby reaching the targets suggested in the previous report.
We recommend waiting for the price to break the current support and hold below it to confirm its readiness to resume the main bearish attack, targeting further negative levels as it heads directly toward 207.45 and 206.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 207.45 and 209.25
U.S. Dollar Index gains some ground as traders focus on the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 197,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst consensus of 200,000. The previous report was revised from 197,000 to 199,000. The report indicated that the job market remained in decent shape.
U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 102.35 – 102.50. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 102.50 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 103.15 – 103.30 range.
EUR/JPY could find immediate support at the descending channel’s lower boundary around 176.30.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 33.25 sits slightly above oversold territory.
The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 177.87.
EUR/JPY inches higher after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 177.10 during European hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross is remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA is trading under the longer one while both remain above spot, suggesting topside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.25 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but becoming stretched.
The EUR/JPY cross may test the lower boundary of the descending channel around 176.30, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025. Further declines below this confluence support zone would expose the 14-month low of 169.72.
On the upside, the primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of 177.87, followed by the 50-day EMA at 180.91. A break above these moving averages would support the EUR/JPY cross to approach the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.10, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
French debt jitters resurface as Treasury mulls shorter issuance
Analysts at ING note that the recent stabilisation in French sovereign markets has proved short-lived. They point out that French government bonds, which had “enjoyed a modest rebound earlier in the week,” were “hit by a report yesterday that the French Treasury could shorten the duration of its issuance to protect the long end.” ING suggests this shift in issuance strategy has unsettled investors, reinforcing the sense of fragility around French debt and, by extension, related Euro assets.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.02%
0.11%
0.06%
-0.05%
0.23%
0.11%
-0.04%
EUR
-0.02%
0.09%
0.04%
-0.09%
0.14%
0.09%
-0.06%
GBP
-0.11%
-0.09%
-0.04%
-0.18%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.13%
JPY
-0.06%
-0.04%
0.04%
-0.13%
0.10%
0.01%
-0.08%
CAD
0.05%
0.09%
0.18%
0.13%
0.23%
0.16%
0.05%
AUD
-0.23%
-0.14%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.23%
-0.04%
-0.17%
NZD
-0.11%
-0.09%
-0.01%
-0.01%
-0.16%
0.04%
-0.09%
CHF
0.04%
0.06%
0.13%
0.08%
-0.05%
0.17%
0.09%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1198 on the 2-hour chart, and what is capturing my attention is price is trading firmly below both the moving averages, and the descending trend line. The recent bounce was unable to take out 1.1212, keeping the larger bearish structure in place and keeping control with sellers.
The first area of support I am looking at is 1.1161. If price were to break 1.1161, 1.1115 would be the next area of support, followed by 1.1063. The first area of resistance is located at 1.1212, followed by 1.1272 and then 1.1334 if buyers are able to initiate a larger move to the upside.
RSI is still below the midline, indicating that the larger time frame trend remains bearish. I would agree with the bearish bias as long as 1.1212 and the descending trend line continue to provide resistance. A break above 1.1272 would be bullish, and a break below 1.1161 would confirm 1.1115 as the next area of support.
EURJPY ended its bullish corrective rebound by posting another negative close below the additional barrier at 179.45, allowing the price to form new bearish waves and achieve some of the previously suggested bearish targets by touching 176.50.
The price currently has little choice but to resume its bearish attack, with the next bearish target at 175.75 expected to be reached soon. With sufficient bearish momentum, the price may also succeed in pressuring the support at 174.95.
The expected trading range for today is between 175.75 and 178.00
