The S&P 500 Index SPY today is up +0.73%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA is up +0.53%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index QQQ is up +1.62%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.80%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +1.65%.

Stock indexes are sharply higher today after President Trump’s signing on Wednesday night of a preliminary deal to end the US-Iran war sent crude oil prices to a 3.5-month low, eased inflation expectations, and sparked risk-on sentiment in asset markets.

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Chipmakers are climbing today to lead the broader market higher, led by an +8% jump in Intel after President Trump said the chipmaker will work alongside Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically. On the negative side, IT service stocks are retreating today, led by a -16% plunge in Accenture after its disappointing Q4 revenue forecast.

Today’s US economic news was supportive of stocks after weekly initial unemployment claims fell -4,000 to 226,000, close to expectations of 225,000. Also, the June Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +10.7 to 10.3, stronger than expectations of 10.0.

Stock market moves may be exaggerated and more volatile than usual today due to the expiration of options, futures, and derivatives during the quarterly event known as triple witching. The event will take place today, with US markets closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday.

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -2% today at a new 3.5-month low after President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding in Paris Wednesday night, formally extending the US-Iran ceasefire for 60 days that allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and starts a further round of negotiations to permanently end the war. The resumption of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the release of more than 100 oil-laden tankers that are stuck in the Persian Gulf, effectively releasing stockpiles into the market. Goldman Sachs on Tuesday cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected.

The markets are discounting a 34% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a new record high and is up +0.38%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 3-week high and closed down -0.43%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average rallied to a new all-time high and closed up +1.65%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +2 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -4.8 bp to 4.430%. T-notes have support today from falling crude oil prices, which put downward pressure on inflation expectations. WTI crude oil is down more than -2% today at a 3.5-month low, knocking the 10-year inflation expectations rate down to a 6-month low of 2.218%.

Gains in T-notes are limited amid today’s rally in stocks, which curbs safe-haven demand for government debt securities. T-notes also have some negative carryover from Wednesday, when the Fed raised its US 2026 core PCE estimate and projected higher interest rates later this year.

European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.2 bp to 2.929%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.2 bp to 4.753%.

ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said consumer prices will remain higher for some time in the Eurozone despite an agreement to end the war in the Middle East, and that the ECB is ready to act at any time to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target.

The UK Apr ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.9%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 5.0%.

As expected, the BOE kept its official bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote and said it “stands ready to act” on inflation. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the recent fall in crude oil prices is “encouraging,” but warned that “the situation remains unpredictable and there is clearly a risk that energy prices remain elevated for an extended duration.”

Swaps are discounting a 16% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers are climbing today, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX up more than +4% at a new record high. Intel INTC is up more than +8% after President Trump said the chipmaker will work alongside Apple to design and produce semiconductors domestically. Also, ARM Holdings Plc ARM and Marvell Technology MRVL are up more than +6%, and Applied Materials AMAT, Micron Technology MU, Lam Research LRCX, and KLA Corp KLAC are up more than +5%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices AMD, Microchip Technology MCHP, NXP Semiconductors NV NXPI, Analog Devices ADI, and Texas Instruments TXN are up more than +4%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today as the -2% plunge in WTI crude oil to a 3.5-month low reduces fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies. Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL is up more than +4%, and Alaska Air Group ALK, Southwest Airlines LUV, and Carnival CCCL are up more than +3%. Also, United Airlines Holdings UAL, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH, American Airlines Group AAL, and Delta Air Lines DAL are up more than +2%.

IT service stocks are retreating today, led by a -16% plunge in Accenture (ACN), the S&P 500’s leading loser, after it forecast Q4 revenue of $17.75-$18.40 billion, below the consensus of $18.47 billion. The lower revenue forecast exacerbated concerns that consultants such as Accenture could be hit hard by AI in the coming years. Also, Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH is down more than -7% to lead the Nasdaq 100 losers, and Huron Consulting Group HURN is down more than -7%. In addition, International Business Machines IBM is down more than -6% to lead the Dow Jones Industrials’ losers, and Globant SA GLOB is down more than -5%.

Centrus Energy LEU is up more than +8% after signing a letter of intent for Centrus to supply domestic high-assay low-enriched uranium to power up to five of Oklo’s Aurora powerhouses for multiple years.

Talen Energy TLN is up more than +5% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $499.

Integra LifeSciences Holdings IART is up more than +3% after Argus upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $25.

Novocure Ltd NVCR is down more than -16% after announcing its Phae 3 TRIDENT trial, which tested earlier initiation of Tumor Treating Fields therapy in newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients compared to later initiation, did not meet its primary endpoint.

Kroger KR is down more than -6% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.58, below the consensus of $1.59, and forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30, the midpoint weaker than the consensus of $5.23.

Steel Dynamics STLD is down more than -5% after forecasting Q2 EPS of $3.51 to $3.55, well below the consensus of $4.16.

FactSet Research Systems FDS is down more than -3% after Rothschild & Co downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $215.

Earnings Reports(6/18/2026)

Accenture PLC (ACN) and Kroger Co/The (KR).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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There are no new developments in copper prices so far, as they continue to stabilize repeatedly near the 6.3500$ level due to their continued trading below the firm resistance at 6.6000$. This increases the chances of the price soon moving into new downward corrective trades.

The continued negative momentum provided by the Stochastic indicator supports our expectation that the price will attempt to slip soon toward 6.2000$, and then pressure the support level located at 6.1000$, in an effort to find a path to resume corrective attempts during the short- and medium-term trading period.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.1000 and $6.5000

Trend forecast: Bearish

Despite the attempt of natural gas price to form some positive trades, its repeated positioning below the 55-period moving average, which acts as a strong barrier at 3.360$, supports the chances of the bearish path dominating the near-term trading.

Additionally, the Stochastic indicator’s exit from the overbought level will increase negative pressure on the current trades. Therefore, we maintain our bearish expectations, which may target the 2.920$ and 2.800$ levels respectively in the near term. As for activating a bullish attack, the price needs to form a strong positive surge and stabilize above the resistance level at 3.530$.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.920$ and 3.300$.

Trend forecast: Bearish

July WTI crude oil (CLN26) today is up +0.90 (+1.18%), and July RBOB gasoline (RBN26) is up +0.0098 (+0.34%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today, with crude recovering from a 3.5-month low. Crude oil prices are climbing today on some technical buying after sharp losses over the past three sessions pushed prices into deeply oversold territory. Crude prices extended their gains today after weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected to a 7.5-month low, and oil supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, dropped to an 11-year low.

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President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after this Friday’s signing of the peace deal in Switzerland, which will trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. However, if an agreement isn’t reached on nuclear, the US could restart military attacks.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned today that the Iran war’s impact on global oil demand will be much deeper than previously anticipated, saying world oil consumption will decline by -1.1 million bpd this year, a larger drop than a previous estimate of -420,000 bpd.

The eventual resumption of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the release of more than 100 laden ships carrying oil from Middle Eastern countries other than Iran that are stuck in the Persian Gulf, effectively releasing stockpiles into the market.

Goldman Sachs on Tuesday cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) last Tuesday raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.72 million bpd from a May estimate of 13.65 million bpd.

Crude prices have support from the continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 4.32 million bpd in the first 10 days of June, the lowest in 20 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have struck three Russian fuel-producing facilities this month, following a record 17 attacks in May. US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have also curbed Russian oil exports.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report released in May that global oil inventories declined at about 4 million bpd in March and April, and that the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October, even if the conflict ends soon. Goldman Sachs estimates that crude output in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed by about 14.5 million bpd, and that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, which could hit a billion bbl by June.

As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September. The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On May 3, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in June after raising production by 206,000 bpd in May, although any production hike now seems unlikely given that Middle East producers are being forced to cut production due to the Middle East war. OPEC’s May crude production fell by -3.36 million bpd to a 40-year low of 16.33 million bpd.

Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -6.9% w/w to 76.50 million bbl in the week ended June 12.

Today’s weekly EIA report was mixed for crude oil and products. On the bullish side, EIA crude inventories fell -8.26 million bbl to a 7.5-month low, a larger draw than expectations of -3.0 million bbl. Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -1.61 million bbl to an 11-year low. On the negative side, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose +951,000 bbl versus expectations of a -500,000 bbl draw.

Today’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of June 12 were -6.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.9% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending June 12 rose +0.1% w/w to 13.806 million bpd, mildly below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended June 12 rose by +2 to an 11-month high of 433 rigs, up from the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Despite the attempt of natural gas price to form some positive trades, its repeated positioning below the 55-period moving average, which acts as a strong barrier at 3.360$, supports the chances of the bearish path dominating the near-term trading.

Additionally, the Stochastic indicator’s exit from the overbought level will increase negative pressure on the current trades. Therefore, we maintain our bearish expectations, which may target the 2.920$ and 2.800$ levels respectively in the near term. As for activating a bullish attack, the price needs to form a strong positive surge and stabilize above the resistance level at 3.530$.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.920$ and 3.300$.

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price remains affected by conflicting main indicators, forcing it to postpone negative attempts and deliver weak trading, stabilizing from yesterday near the $1800.00 level. We expect that with the barrier at $1865.00 remaining intact and the Stochastic indicator approaching the overbought level, the price will begin activating negative attempts, targeting the $1695.00 level soon, followed by the stable obstacle at $1640.00.

The risk of a trend reversal and the formation of a new path remains possible if the price successfully breaks the resistance extending toward $1925.00 and holds above it. This would enable it to achieve noticeable gains by advancing first toward $1990.00 and $2060.00 respectively.

The expected trading range for today is between $1700.00 and $1840.00.

Trend forecast: Bearish

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market did not record fluctuations compared to the previous session. The average coffee price reached 89,300 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices are recorded at 89,300 VND/kg. Gia Lai also has the same price of 89,300 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, today’s coffee price reached 89,000 VND/kg, the lowest among the surveyed localities. Meanwhile, the old Dak Nong area was recorded at 8,900 VND/kg.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate in the range of 89,000-8,900 VND/kg. The highest price in the survey group is 8,900,000 VND/kg in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and the old Dak Nong area.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,083 VND/USD, an increase of 10 VND.

World coffee prices

On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for July 2026 reached 3,669 USD/ton, up 62 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.72%. September 2026 futures reached 3,598 USD/ton, up 69 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.96%.

Further terms also increased sharply. Robusta November 2026 term reached 3,545 USD/ton, up 79 USD/ton; January 2027 term reached 3,494 USD/ton, up 85 USD/ton; March 2027 term reached 3,459 USD/ton, up 84 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices increased very strongly. July 2026 futures reached 277.25 US cents/lb, up 14.30 cents/lb, equivalent to 5.44%. September 2026 futures reached 272.80 US cents/lb, up 13.60 cents/lb, equivalent to 5.25%.

For long-term terms, Arabica December 2026 reached 263.60 US cents/lb, up 11.85 cents/lb; March 2027 term reached 259.75 US cents/lb, up 10.60 cents/lb; May 2027 term reached 259.40 US cents/lb, up 10.30 cents/lb.

This development shows that world coffee prices are increasing more strongly than domestic coffee prices. In the session on June 17, Arabica was the group that increased more prominently than Robusta.

Coffee price assessment

World coffee prices rose sharply on Tuesday, both reaching their highest level in about 5 weeks. The main driver came from concerns that prolonged rain in Brazil could slow down coffee harvest progress.

Brazil’s weather is currently a factor closely monitored by the market. Rain during harvesting can disrupt harvesting and drying operations, while increasing the risk of affecting grain quality. This supports coffee prices in the short term, especially Arabica.

Coffee inventories on the ICE exchange decreasing in recent months also contributed to supporting prices. According to Barchart, Arabica inventories on the ICE fell to 396,957 bags on Tuesday, the lowest level in more than 6 months. Meanwhile, Robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low in May, although they increased again to 3,991 lots in the most recent session.

The El Niño factor continues to be mentioned as a risk to supply. If this phenomenon changes rainfall in Brazil during the coffee flowering period in September and October, the next crop prospects may be affected.

However, the upward momentum of coffee prices is still under pressure from the prospect of large supply. USDA/FAS forecasts that Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026/27 crop year may reach 71.9 million bags, an increase of about 14% over the same period. Rabobank also raised its global Arabica surplus forecast to 9.5 million bags, higher than the previous 7 million bags.

On the Robusta side, the increase in Vietnam’s coffee exports is a factor that can limit the price increase momentum. According to statistics from the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance), Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 5 months of 2026 reached 922,000 tons, an increase of 7.9% compared to the same period.

In general, coffee prices today in the world market increased sharply thanks to Brazil’s weather risks, low inventories and concerns about El Niño. However, domestic coffee prices remained flat, showing that the domestic market has not fully reflected the upward momentum of the two international exchanges.

Copper price has continued to show mixed sideways trading, affected by its position below the stable resistance at $6.6000, which is limiting the chances of resuming bullish attempts, with repeated fluctuations forming near the $6.4500 level.

We expect that the Stochastic indicator’s attempt to provide negative momentum may lead the price to start forming downward corrective waves, through which it may pressure the $6.2500 level and then attempt to reach the additional support level at $6.1000.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2500 and $6.6000

Trend forecast: Bearish 

The S&P 500 Index SPY today is down -0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA is up +0.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index QQQ is down -0.83%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.20%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.85%.

Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. The weakness in energy producers from the plunge in crude oil prices is weighing on the broader market. Also, weakness in software stocks is a drag on the overall market. In addition, today’s weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits reports are negative for stocks.

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Stocks are supported as crude oil prices dropped another -3% today to a 3.25-month low, easing inflation expectations and supporting stocks and bonds. Stocks have carryover support from Monday’s surge after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stoking risk-on sentiment in asset markets. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2 bp to 4.45%.

The market’s focus will turn to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today, the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the spotlight will be on how Mr. Warsh navigates the post-meeting press conference and the outlook for inflation.

US May housing starts fell -15.4% m/m to a 6-year low of 1.177 million, weaker than expectations of 1.430 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -0.7% m/m to 1.413 million, weaker than expectations of 1.418 million.

The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -3% today at a 3.25-month low due to the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting expectations for a revival in oil supplies. Goldman Sachs today cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected.

The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.56%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average rose to a new all-time high and closed up +0.13%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +4.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.6 bp to 4.447%. Sep T-notes are moving higher today amid the fall in WTI crude oil to a 3.25-month low, which has reduced inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes. Also, weaker-than-expected US May housing starts and building permits are supportive of T-notes. In addition, markets are hoping for a less hawkish FOMC meeting this week, given that oil prices should decline over time if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as expected.

European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to an 8-week low of 2.920% and is down -1.6 bp to 2.938%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.8 bp to 4.804%.

Eurozone Q1 labor costs were revised downward to +3.2% y/y from the previously reported +3.4% y/y.

The German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +20.7 to a 4-month high of 10.5, stronger than expectations of -5.5.

Swaps are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are falling today, a negative factor for the overall market. Atlassian Corp TEAM and Palantir Technologies PLTR are down more than -3%, and ServiceNow NOW and Workday WDAY are down more than -2%. Also, Microsoft MSFT, Salesforce CRM, and Oracle ORCL are down more than -1%. In addition, Intuit INTU is down -0.90% and Datadog DDOG is down -0.50%.

Cybersecurity stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the broader market. Zscaler ZS is down more than -3%, and Okta OKTA and Fortinet FTNT are down more than -2%. Also, CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD, Palo Alto Networks PANW, and Cloudflare NET are down more than -1%.

Energy stocks and service providers are moving lower today with WTI crude oil down more than -3% to a 3.25-month low. APA Corp APA and Valero Energy VLO are down more than -2%. Also, Baker Hughes BKR, ConocoPhillips COP, Diamondback Energy FANG, Devon Energy DVN, Haliburton HAL, and Occidental Petroleum OXY are down more than -1%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today as the -3% decline in WTI crude oil prices lowers fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies. American Airlines Group AAL and Southwest Airlines LUV are up more than +4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH is up more than +2%. Also, Carnival CCCL, Alaska Air Group ALK, and Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL are up more than +1%.

Mining stocks are climbing today with rallies in gold, silver, and copper prices. Newmont Corp NEM, Coeur Mining CDE, and Barrick Mining B are up more than +2%, and Anglogold Ashanti AU is up more than +1%. Also, Hecla Mining HL is up +0.54%, and Freeport McMoRan FCX is up 0.19%.

Space Exploration Technologies SPCX is up more than +7%, adding to the +37% gain over the past two sessions on positive carryover from its record $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) late last week, which was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock.

Valmont Industries VMI is up more than +5% after projecting a goal of $5.4 billion in organic net sales and an EPS target of $35 by the end of 2029.

Mobileye Global MBLY is up by more than +3% after announcing plans to expand its robotaxi activities beyond self-driving technology into full ownership of an autonomous ride-hailing business.

Edwards Lifesciences EW is up more than +3% after the US government published a coverage proposal for transcatheter aortic valve replacement, a positive development for the company.

Huntsman HUN is down more than -20% after agreeing to merge with Olin in an all-stock merger of equals.

Huson Pacific Properties HPP is down more than -4% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $14.

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment PLAY is down more than -2% after reporting Q1 revenue of $559.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $580.3 million.

Tractor Supply Co TSCO is down more than -2% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after several analysts cut their price targets on the stock.

Earnings Reports(6/16/2026)

John Wiley & Sons Inc (WLY) and La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Silver prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders took profit after a sharp relief rally driven by the US-Iran peace framework and lower oil prices.

XAGUSD traded near $69.85 in early European dealing, retreating from a weekly high as attention shifted from geopolitics to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday.

The pullback was measured rather than disorderly.

Lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, while the dollar remains near recent lows.

Even so, silver still faces a difficult technical setup, with momentum indicators showing that buyers have yet to regain control of the short-term trend.

Fed expectations keep silver supported

The biggest question for silver is whether the Fed sounds less worried about inflation after the fall in oil prices.

The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates in a 3.50% to 3.75% range this week, but the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments will matter more than the decision itself.

Silver, like gold, does not pay interest. That makes it sensitive to shifts in rate expectations and the dollar.

Traders have cut the probability of a December US rate hike to about 58%, from nearly 70% last week, according to CME FedWatch data.

Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex, told Reuters that a dovish signal from Warsh could weaken the dollar and trigger another rally in precious metals.

The same logic applies to silver, especially after Monday’s strong rebound.

Peace deal limits the downside

The US-Iran framework has also helped improve sentiment across commodities.

The proposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil lower, easing fears that energy costs will keep inflation elevated for longer.

That has offered a cushion to silver, even as traders lock in gains. A lower oil price reduces pressure on central banks to tighten further, which is generally supportive for non-yielding assets.

Still, markets are not treating the deal as risk-free.

Details of the agreement remain limited, and investors are waiting to see whether shipping through Hormuz can return safely and predictably. Any setback in talks could bring back demand for havens, but it could also revive inflation fears if crude prices jump again.

Technical picture stays fragile

Silver’s chart still points to caution.

The metal remains below the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average, keeping the broader bias tilted lower.

The relative strength index is also below the midline, suggesting weak momentum rather than a clear bullish turn.

The first resistance sits near $72.25. A move above that level could open the way to $74.14, followed by the 100-day SMA near $78.55 and the upper Bollinger band around $80.72.

On the downside, $63.80 remains the main support area to watch. Until silver clears nearby resistance, rallies may continue to face selling pressure.