2026.08.21 2026.08.21
XAU/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 21.08.26–28.08.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 4,315.60 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 4,315.60. Stop Loss: below 4,245.00, Take Profit: 4,900.00–5,610.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 4,315.60 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00. A sell signal: the level of 4,315.60 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 4,385.00, Take Profit: 4,003.25–3,720.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 4,315.60 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 4,315.60 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00.

Analysis

An ascending third wave of larger degree (3) is presumably developing on the weekly chart. Within it, a descending correction has been completed as the fourth wave of smaller degree 4 of (3). Apparently, the fifth wave 5 of (3) started developing on the daily chart, with wave i of 5 forming as its part. Wave (iii) of i of 5 continues developing on the H4 chart, with wave v of (iii) unfolding as part of its structure. If the presumption is correct, XAU/USD will continue to rise to 4,900.00–5,610.00. The level of 4,315.60 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

Platinum price manages to settle above the moving average 55, holding near the breached resistance at $1785.00 level, keeping the bullish trend by recording the initial target at $1865.00.

The continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of facing $1905.00 level, and surpassing it might extend the trading towards the next main target near $1955.00, note that the bearish trend return depends on the attempt of reaching below $1745.00 level and providing repeated negative closes.

The expected trading range for today is between $1820.00 and $1905.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair benefited from the positive factors to end the dominance of the corrective trend, to form a strong bullish rally, surpassing the barrier at 216.35, recording the initial main target by reaching 216.90 level.

The positive factors make us prefer witnessing more bullish attempts, to expect targeting 217.35 and 217.80 level, while the decline below 216.35 and providing a negative close will force it to delay the bullish trend and providing mixed trading, and there is a chance to decline towards 215.55 before any attempt to record the suggested taregts.

The expected trading range for today is between 216.30 and 217.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

The Silver price hit a two-month high above $67 after the US Treasury’s larger bond-buyback plan revived precious-metals demand, before profit-taking emerged.

Silver prices pushed to their highest level in two months on Thursday after Wednesday’s powerful rally carried XAG/USD through the mid-$60s.

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The Silver to US Dollar (XAG/USD) price reached $67.11 before easing to around $66.66, leaving it 0.46% lower on the day but still 3.20% higher over five sessions.

The metal has gained more than 18% over the past month.

Silver Breakout Meets Profit-Taking

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The latest move was triggered by the US Treasury’s decision to at least double some bond-buyback operations at the long end of the curve.

That announcement pulled Treasury yields and the Dollar lower on Wednesday, providing a sharp boost to non-yielding assets and helping silver outperform gold.

TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg described the Treasury move as “the first of many possible actions” available to support the long end.

The rally has since encountered profit-taking as hawkish elements in the Federal Reserve minutes reminded investors that another rate increase has not been ruled out.

For silver, the technical picture has nevertheless improved substantially.

A sustained break above $67.10 would put $70 back in focus, while the $64-$65 area should now offer the first meaningful support after the latest breakout.

Failure to hold above $62.50 would weaken the recovery signal, but with XAG/USD still sharply higher over one month, momentum remains more constructive than it was in July.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The price of gold declined during its latest intraday trading, affected by the stability of the main resistance level at $4,500, to gather the gains of its previous rises, attempting to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the relative strength indicators, with the emergence of the negative signals from them, to gather its bullish strength that might help it to resume its gains, with the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis, with its trading alongside minor trend line that supports this trend, besides the continuation of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the chances of near term recovery.

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UK Stock Market Forecast Today (August 20): The UK stock market is expected to open higher on Thursday, August 20, 2026, with the FTSE 100 poised for a modest recovery despite ongoing geopolitical concerns. The index closed at 10,743.35 points on Wednesday, up 0.14%, ending a six-session losing streak and providing some relief to investors after recent weakness.

UK Stock Market Forecast Today (August 20): Will the FTSE 100 Open Higher Today?

The UK’s FTSE 100 is expected to open slightly higher on Thursday, August 20, 2026, with the index forecast to gain around 6.3 points, or 0.1%, to 10,749.65. The expected uptick follows Wednesday’s close at 10,743.35, as gains in energy and commodity stocks provided some support despite concerns over UK inflation and ongoing geopolitical risks.  Financial spread betters and IG futures indicate a modest early gain of about 6.3 to 9 points (around 0.1%), tracking towards an opening level near 10,749.65. 

UK Stock Market Forecast Today (August 20): FTSE 100 Market Outlook

UK Stock Market Forecast Today (August 20): London Stock Market Major FTSE Indices Today

London’s major stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, August 19, 2026, as gains in mining and energy stocks helped lift the broader market. The FTSE 100 ended at 10,743.35, up 15.31 points or 0.14%, while the FTSE 250 rose 82.09 points, or 0.33%, to 24,643.52.

UK Stock Market Forecast Today (August 20): Stocks to Watch Today

• JD Sports Fashion: The retailer is in focus after cutting its full-year profit forecast to £700 million–£800 million. The revision followed a 3.1% decline in group like-for-like sales, with weaker demand in North America weighing on performance.
• Mining and Gold Stocks: Mining companies, including Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining, remain on investors’ radar amid movements in commodity prices and changing global debt-market conditions.
• Defensive Stocks: Pharmaceutical companies such as AstraZeneca and GSK could attract investor attention as markets remain cautious amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

UK Stock Market Forecast Today (August 20): Middle East Conflict Remains Key Risk

The US-Iran conflict remains one of the biggest external risks for UK markets. Oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday as hopes for a US-Iran agreement weakened. Iran said it would adopt a more aggressive military stance, while the US declined to extend a ceasefire arrangement. The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly important because disruption to the waterway can affect global energy supplies. Lower tanker traffic has already added to concerns about oil availability.

UK Stock Market Forecast Today (August 20): What Should Investors Know?

Investors should prepare for another potentially volatile session rather than assume that the recent FTSE 100 decline will automatically continue. The key factors to monitor today include:

• Oil: Brent crude is around $92 and WTI around $85.25.
• Geopolitics: US-Iran tensions remain a major market risk.
• UK data: Unemployment and claimant-count figures are due today.
• Inflation: UK CPI data is due Wednesday and could influence interest-rate expectations.
• Stocks: Investors may closely track energy, mining and consumer shares following recent moves.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, as stock markets are subject to market risks and can change rapidly.