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Updated: Saturday, December 13, 2025 (prices reflect the latest available market closes and published data through Friday, Dec. 12)

Natural gas markets just delivered a reminder of how fast sentiment can flip in winter. After a cold-driven surge to multi-year highs earlier this month, U.S. natural gas futures reversed sharply this week as weather models turned milder, production stayed near record levels, and storage—while tightening—remained comfortable for mid-December.

The result: a steep weekly selloff in U.S. prices, while Europe’s TTF benchmark hovered near 19–20 month lows on robust supply and stronger wind outlooks, and Asian LNG spot markers eased toward multi-month lows amid ample cargo availability and soft weather-driven demand.  ^[1]

Below is a detailed recap of this week’s biggest drivers, plus a week-ahead outlook (Dec. 15–19) focused on weather risk, LNG flows, storage reports, and the key catalysts that could jolt prices back in either direction.

Natural gas prices this week: the numbers traders are reacting to

United States: Henry Hub / NYMEX

• NYMEX January futures settled Friday at $4.113 per mmBtu, down 11.8 cents (–2.8%) on the day and down about 22% on the week, after touching the lowest intraday level since Oct. 31.  ^[2]
• The selloff followed Thursday’s sharp drop, when January futures fell nearly 8% to $4.231, the biggest daily percentage decline since March 2025.  ^[3]
• On the cash side, the EIA’s weekly market update showed Henry Hub spot sliding from $5.20 (Dec. 5) to $4.61 (Dec. 10)—a visible retreat as forecasts warmed after the early-December cold snap.  ^[4]

Europe: Dutch TTF

• The Dutch TTF front-month traded around €26.76–€27.33 per MWh during the week—levels not seen since April 2024—as milder forecasts and strong supply weighed on the market.  ^[5]

Asia: JKM LNG

• The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) was indicated around $10.7–$10.8 per mmBtu, with Reuters noting Asian spot LNG at a ~20-month low amid ample supplies and mild weather.  ^[6]

Why U.S. natural gas fell hard this week: weather flipped, and fundamentals gave bears cover

The clearest driver was meteorology—and the market’s reflexive repricing of heating demand.

Reuters reported that forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week helped push U.S. natural gas futures to a more-than-one-month low on Friday, even though storage withdrawals just printed far above normal.  ^[7]

At the same time, supply stayed heavy:

• LSEG estimated Lower-48 output around 109.7 Bcf/d so far in December, essentially matching record territory set in November.  ^[8]
• Strong output has helped keep inventories about 3% above normal for this time of year, muting the urgency that usually follows an early-winter cold shock.  ^[9]

Market psychology mattered, too. After prices spiked to a 35‑month high on Dec. 5, warmer revisions encouraged rapid profit-taking and short-term traders “jumping ship,” in the words of one analyst quoted by Reuters.  ^[10]

Barron’s also highlighted the “rollercoaster” dynamic: when the forecast warms, prices can fall quickly even if longer-term demand (LNG exports, winter heating, power burn) remains strong.  ^[11]

The storage report that should have been bullish—but wasn’t

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 177 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 5—roughly double the five-year average draw for the same week.  ^[12]

Key inventory context:

• Working gas in storage: 3,746 Bcf
• About 3% above the five-year average, but slightly below last year at this time.  ^[13]

Several analysts noted the unusual setup: a “big” withdrawal would normally spark a rally, but the market stayed focused on the mid-December warmth signal, effectively postponing bullish enthusiasm until the models show another meaningful cold risk.  ^[14]

LNG is still the swing factor—and it’s tightening the U.S. market even when prices fall

Even after this week’s price retreat, the U.S. is exporting huge volumes of gas via LNG, which continues to reshape domestic balances.

Reuters said average feedgas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to about 18.8 Bcf/d so far this month, near record levels.  ^[15]

That export pull is the backdrop for the broader 2025 story:

• U.S. LNG exports hit a record 10.9 million metric tonnes in November, with Europe taking about 70% of cargoes, according to Reuters.  ^[16]
• Operational headlines also mattered this month: Freeport LNG worked through a short disruption and appeared to return capacity as feedgas receipts recovered, per Reuters.  ^[17]

Margin squeeze: when U.S. gas rises but Europe/Asia fall

A key theme in recent days has been compression of the price spread between Henry Hub and Europe’s TTF.

Reuters reported that rising U.S. gas prices paired with softer Europe/Asia benchmarks narrowed the arbitrage that funds LNG exports, raising the possibility exports could eventually be curtailed if margins become too thin—though not necessarily in the near term.  ^[18]

This matters for week-ahead trading because it ties together three moving pieces:

1. Henry Hub weather-driven demand
2. LNG plant feedgas/uptime
3. TTF and JKM pricing (global pull)

Europe: TTF stays low, but storage is materially tighter than last year

European natural gas prices remained subdued this week even as storage drew down—because supply has stayed strong(Norwegian pipeline flows + LNG sendout), and weather/wind forecasts reduced near-term heating and gas-for-power needs.

Reuters noted TTF touching a fresh 19‑month low midweek (around €26.76/MWh) with milder temperature runs and solid supply; LNG sendout was described as high, and Norwegian flows were reported above 340 mcm/day in one update.  ^[19]

The important difference vs. 2023–2024: storage

As of 12/12/2025 (6AM CEST), Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed:

• EU storage ~70.92% full (about 809.86 TWh stored)  ^[20]

A Reuters-cited market update published Saturday reported EU storage around 71.29%, versus 80.89% at the same time last year—an important structural tightening even if prices are currently calm.  ^[21]

A market setup that can stay calm—until it can’t

ING’s latest analysis argues Europe’s gas market is “more comfortable” near term due to a wave of LNG supply and relaxed storage rules, but lower storage makes Europe more vulnerable to cold spells or supply shocks, especially given speculative positioning in TTF (risk of a short-covering rally).  ^[22]

Asia: LNG benchmarks ease as supplies stay ample; China demand signals remain mixed

Asian LNG pricing softened alongside Europe, with Reuters noting spot LNG slipping to a ~20‑month low on ample supply and mild weather—conditions that tend to discourage urgent buying, but can also tempt price-sensitive importersback into the spot market.  ^[23]

On pricing, the JKM futures proxy showed levels around $10.70/mmBtu into Friday’s close.  ^[24]

On demand, Reuters’ recent reporting has emphasized:

• High spot LNG prices in 2025 restrained China’s spot buying and could push China behind Japan in annual LNG imports, though winter can still pull cargoes when cold snaps hit.  ^[25]

Forecasts: what the EIA is now projecting for prices, storage, and 2026 fundamentals

The EIA’s December Short-Term Energy Outlook (released Dec. 9) lifted its winter view after the early-December cold snap.

Key points from the EIA outlook:

• Henry Hub spot price forecast to average about $4.30/mmBtu this winter heating season (Nov–Mar), 22% higher than last winter.  ^[26]
• EIA expects December to run ~8% more heating degree days than the 10-year average, driving higher space-heating demand.  ^[27]
• Despite stronger winter pricing, EIA expects rising production to help moderate prices next year, with U.S. dry gas production forecast around 109 Bcf/d in 2026.  ^[28]
• EIA projects U.S. LNG exports averaging 14.9 Bcf/d in 2025 and 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026—a structural support for demand even in warmer weeks.  ^[29]

Week-ahead outlook (Dec. 15–19, 2025): the catalysts most likely to move natural gas prices

Here are the factors most likely to decide whether the market extends this week’s selloff or snaps back.

1) Weather model risk: warmth is priced in—so the asymmetry flips

By Friday, LSEG projected U.S. demand (including exports) falling sharply next week versus this week—one reason traders sold aggressively.  ^[30]

The market implication is straightforward:

• If forecasts stay mild, it’s difficult for bulls to regain control quickly.
• If the 6–10 day and 8–14 day outlooks shift colder (or HDDs rise), the market can rebound fast—because so much selling has already occurred and winter volatility remains high.  ^[31]

2) Next U.S. storage report: Thursday, Dec. 18

The next EIA storage report is scheduled for Dec. 18 under the regular release cadence.  ^[32]

Also worth noting for planning around year-end: EIA’s schedule shows holiday shifts later this month (e.g., Dec. 24 and Dec. 31 releases moved to Wednesday at noon).  ^[33]

Why it matters:

• Another oversized withdrawal could support prices only if weather risk is not collapsing at the same time.
• A smaller withdrawal (or any sign of demand softness) could reinforce the “storage is comfortable” narrative.

3) LNG feedgas and outage headlines

With feedgas near record levels, any unexpected LNG disruption (or restart) can quickly move balances—especially during winter. Recent attention has focused on facility uptime (including Freeport) and the steady expansion of export capability.  ^[34]

4) Europe’s wind and temperature pattern (and what it does to gas-for-power)

European gas prices have been highly sensitive to wind output forecasts this season. Reuters coverage this week pointed to wind-driven demand swings supporting prices at times even while the broader market stayed weak.  ^[35]

5) Storage tightness in Europe: a slow-burn bullish factor

Even if TTF is quiet now, EU inventories are notably below last year’s level for mid-December—meaning a late-December cold spell can matter more than traders expect today.  ^[36]

The bottom line for natural gas prices heading into next week

This week was dominated by a classic winter reversal: a cold-driven spike followed by a rapid selloff once warmer forecasts appeared, amplified by near-record U.S. production and still-adequate storage.  ^[37]

For the week ahead, the market is essentially trading one question:

Do forecasts stay mild long enough to keep demand sliding, or do weather models reintroduce cold risk that forces a rebound?  ^[38]

As always in December, the “correct” answer can change in a single model run—which is why natural gas volatility tends to stay elevated even when prices are falling.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice.

References

1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.eia.gov, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.eia.gov, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.gie.eu, 21. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 22. think.ing.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.eia.gov, 27. www.eia.gov, 28. www.eia.gov, 29. www.eia.gov, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.eia.gov, 33. ir.eia.gov, 34. www.tradingview.com, 35. www.tradingview.com, 36. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 37. www.tradingview.com, 38. www.tradingview.com

Next Upside Objectives

With the initial measured move now recognized, attention shifts to the second-phase target: a 127.2% projection of the current leg pointing to $4,454. However, the standing record high at $4,381 must first be decisively cleared before that longer extension becomes realistic.

Strong Weekly Structure

Despite the intraday pullback, gold remains set to finish the week in the top third of its range and deliver the highest weekly close in history. A daily close above last week’s high of $4,264 will confirm a weekly breakout and trend continuation, marking the third consecutive week of higher weekly highs and lows while also securing the third straight weekly close above the two top channel lines that failed to sustain October’s initial breakouts.

Dynamic Support Levels

The two most significant dynamic support areas lie at the 10-day average, currently $4,225, and the 20-day average at $4,170. Although gold has progressed steadily higher since October’s low, momentum has remained largely muted—now facing its most important test yet as it attempts a convincing breakout into new record territory and signals unambiguous bull trend continuation.

Outlook

Gold has checked the $4,353–$4,356 measured box and produced the strongest weekly close ever, but immediate selling off the high warns of potential near-term consolidation or correction. Hold the 10-day and 20-day averages on any weakness and clear $4,381 to resume the assault toward $4,454; failure to defend those averages risks deeper profit-taking while the larger uptrend stays intact.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Global Benchmarks WTI (CL=F) And Brent (BZ=F) Locked In The High 50s And Low 60s

Spot Levels Spreads And What They Signal About The Barrel

U S benchmark WTI crude CL=F trades around 57 30 dollars, down roughly 0 30 dollars, which is about 0 52 percent on the day. Sea borne benchmark Brent BZ=F sits near 60 96 dollars, off about 0 32 dollars, also around 0 52 percent lower. That leaves Brent carrying a premium of roughly 3 7 dollars per barrel over WTI, which is consistent with a market that is oversupplied but still pays extra for seaborne flexibility and non U S grades.

Other key blends confirm the same soft structure. Murban crude trades close to 62 00 dollars and is down almost 0 93 percent. Louisiana Light sits near 59 62 dollars with only a mild decline, while the OPEC Basket is around 61 28 dollars and down just under 1 percent. Heavy sour Mars U S, which is structurally tighter because of sanctions and refining demand, still trades near 70 36 dollars even after a decline of about 1 35 percent. Premium West African Bonny Light remains elevated near 78 62 dollars despite a nearly 2 84 percent drop.

Refined products and U S gas also point to pressure. Gasoline is trading around 1 749 dollars per gallon and slipping by a little more than half a percent. U S natural gas sits near 4 088 dollars with a loss of about 3 38 percent. When crude benchmarks, refined products and gas move lower together, the message is simple. Demand is not tight enough to absorb the available molecules, and the market is trading barrels on an oversupply narrative, not on a scarcity story.

Structural Oversupply Keeps WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F Under A Downward Bias

The forward balance explains why every short term bounce in CL=F and BZ=F is being faded. The latest global outlook projects a 2026 oil surplus of 3 84 million barrels per day. That figure is only reduced by 250 thousand barrels per day from the prior month, but the composition matters. Expected demand growth is around 860 thousand barrels per day, while supply growth is near 2 4 million barrels per day. In other words, supply is rising at almost three times the pace of demand.

In that environment, the high 50s on WTI and just above 60 dollars on Brent are not anomalies. They are exactly where the strip should trade when the next year’s projected glut is measured in millions of barrels per day rather than a marginal imbalance. The problem is not a lack of awareness among producers either. Canada’s Cenovus plans to increase oil output into 2026. Suncor targets a major production boost over the same horizon. Equinor is deploying roughly 400 million dollars to lift volumes at a new Arctic oilfield. An Australian state has launched its first gas tender in seven years. None of these moves reflects a producer base preparing for scarcity. They reflect a supply side that is still building capacity even as balances already point to surplus.

For WTI CL=F, which sits around 57 30 dollars, this supply backdrop is exactly why rallies into the low 60s keep reversing. The global barrel is long, and every extra dollar on the screen is an invitation for producers and hedgers to sell forward.

Russian Revenues Urals Discounts And The Brent BZ=F Risk Premium Cap

Russian fundamentals play directly into the Brent curve and the discounts versus benchmark. In December, Russia’s combined oil and gas revenues are projected around 5 15 billion dollars, equivalent to roughly 410 billion rubles. That is almost 50 percent lower than the same month a year earlier and represents the weakest level since August 2020, when revenues hovered near 5 1 billion dollars, or about 405 billion rubles, during the pandemic demand collapse.

In November, Russian oil and gas revenues already fell about 35 percent year on year as the price of Russian crude slumped while the ruble strengthened. Total oil exports including crude and products dropped by roughly 420 thousand barrels per day to 6 9 million barrels per day as buyers reassessed the sanctions risk on Russia’s biggest exporters. The fall in flows combined with weaker prices and a wider Urals discount cut Russian oil revenues to about 11 billion dollars, down roughly 3 6 billion dollars from a year before.

Even with the pressure, Russia produced around 9 367 million barrels per day in the last reading, only 10 thousand barrels per day above October and still about 165 thousand barrels per day below its formal OPEC plus quota. For the global benchmark BZ=F, the important point is not only volume but price. A wider Urals discount into Asia puts persistent downward pressure on other sour and medium grades. Asian refiners that can run discounted Urals do not need as much Brent linked crude at full price. That weakens the ability of Brent to build a sustained risk premium, which is why BZ=F trades near 60 96 dollars with a soft tone even as sanctions tighten around Russian flows.

China And India Redirect The Physical Barrel And Undercut WTI CL=F Exports

The trade flows behind CL=F and BZ=F are being reshaped by China and India as they chase discounts and differential cuts. Chinese term buyers have requested about 49 5 million barrels of Saudi crude, a sharp rise from roughly 36 million barrels the previous month. This change came after Saudi Aramco cut the Arab Light differential to the weakest level in almost five years. That price cut made Saudi barrels more competitive against both Russian and Atlantic Basin grades, anchoring more Chinese demand to Middle Eastern supply.

India continues to exploit discounted Russian barrels. Russian oil imports into India are set to reach a six month high, as refiners are actively seeking non sanctioned Russian cargoes available at deep discounts. Every barrel India pulls from Russia or Saudi Arabia is a barrel it does not need from the U S Gulf Coast or the North Sea.

For U S blends connected to CL=F, this matters directly. Louisiana Light trading near 59 62 dollars shows modest weakness, while Mars U S near 70 36 dollars confirms that sour grades remain tight. The more Russia and Saudi Arabia discount into Asia, the more U S barrels must compete on price to clear exports. That dynamic is what keeps WTI CL=F anchored in the high 50s. When Asian refiners can secure cheaper barrels elsewhere, U S exporters must concede on price or accept lower volumes.

Macro Fed Cuts Tanker Seizures And A Surprisingly Weak Risk Premium In Brent BZ=F

Macro policy and geopolitics are normally bullish inputs for crude. Right now, they are being overwhelmed by fundamentals. The U S Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate to a 3 50 percent to 3 75 percent range, which should in theory support commodities and risk assets. At the same time, the administration seized a Venezuelan VLCC named Skipper on its way to Cuba and has signaled its intention to intercept more ships carrying Venezuelan crude. The U S is also preparing to seize additional tankers tied to sanctioned flows, putting segments of the shadow fleet on notice.

Despite all of this, Brent BZ=F trades only slightly above 61 dollars and has recently logged about a 2 percent decline on a day with multiple bullish headlines. The market is effectively saying that rate cuts and tanker seizures are not enough to offset the persistent surplus and soft global demand. Even an oil tanker rate shock, with daily tanker rates reportedly up around 467 percent, is not translating into sustained price strength. Higher freight costs add noise and volatility but do not fix an underlying surplus of crude.

The macro backdrop is not aggressively supportive either. Global electric vehicle growth is slowing in the United States and flattening in China. That moderates long term demand but does not deliver an immediate collapse. Instead, the near term economic picture remains sluggish, reinforcing the idea that energy demand growth will underperform supply growth into 2026. In this environment, traders default to selling rallies in CL=F and BZ=F rather than paying up for barrels on geopolitical fear.

Technical Structure WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F Behave Like Markets In A Grinding Downtrend

The technical setup for WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F is aligned with the fundamental story. On WTI, price gapped higher at the Friday open and then faded, closing the gap and drifting lower. The chart shows a well defined downtrend line and a 50 day exponential moving average acting together as a ceiling. Every push toward that confluence is rejected, turning short term strength into an opportunity for short entries rather than the start of a trend reversal. Only a decisive move above 60 dollars would even open a discussion about a run toward 62 dollars, and the tape is not showing that kind of momentum right now. Instead, the prevailing pattern is a gentle but persistent grind lower with rallies failing quickly.

For Brent BZ=F, price also opened higher but then reversed, treating 60 dollars as a fragile floor rather than a robust base. The 60 dollar mark is a round psychological level and a technical pivot. Holding above it keeps the market in a controlled slide. A break below it would be an unambiguous negative signal and could drag both Brent and WTI into deeper losses as funds reprice their early 2026 assumptions. In practice, that would align price action with the forecast that sees oil trading near 60 dollars next year. The market appears to be front loading that forecast today.

Gas Products Nigeria Pipeline Incident And The Broader Energy Tape Around Crude

Outside crude, the rest of the energy complex is confirming the soft tone rather than contradicting it. U S natural gas trading near 4 088 dollars and down more than 3 percent indicates that even winter pricing is struggling against supply and storage. Gasoline at 1 749 dollars per gallon and modestly weaker shows that refined product demand is not tight enough to pull crude higher.

In Nigeria, an explosion on the Escravos Lagos gas pipeline occurred on the evening of December tenth near communities in Delta State. The event caused a pressure drop consistent with a loss of containment and forced the operator to activate emergency response procedures. The line is a significant conduit of gas to industrial users and power plants in southwestern Nigeria. The operator has emphasized community safety and environmental protection while the cause is being investigated.

The incident came only days after a deal between the state oil company and Heirs Energies to capture and monetize flared gas at their OML seventeen joint venture near Port Harcourt. Under that arrangement, flared gas will be redeployed into power generation, industrial uses, liquefied petroleum gas and compressed natural gas. This aligns with Nigeria’s gas development and energy transition strategy. However, gas flaring volumes in Nigeria rose about 12 percent in 2024, the second largest increase globally behind Iran. The contrast between rising flaring and efforts to capture gas underscores how much supply remains underutilized. For crude benchmarks, this is further evidence that the broader hydrocarbon system is long molecules, not short.

OPEC Plus New Projects Citi’s 60 Dollar Call And Why The Curve Still Looks Heavy

Forward signals from producers and banks are broadly consistent with the present price zone. A major investment bank projects oil falling toward 60 dollars in early 2026. Brent BZ=F hovering around 61 dollars and WTI CL=F near 57 dollars already reflect that trajectory. The curve is essentially compressing toward that level now instead of waiting a full year.

OPEC is maintaining a bullish narrative on 2026 demand, but its own numbers show a world that is not particularly tight. The forecast of 860 thousand barrels per day demand growth against 2 4 million barrels per day supply growth points squarely to a surplus outcome unless there are fresh and credible cuts. At the same time, producers are not holding back. Cenovus is planning higher output. Suncor is targeting a major production lift. Equinor is spending 400 million dollars to raise flows at an Arctic project. The 44 billion dollar Alaska LNG project has secured a key regulatory approval, moving toward a final investment decision on a supply pipeline in late 2025 and the full project in 2026. Saudi Arabia is signing upstream exploration deals in Syria with the aim of eventually pushing Syrian output back toward 400 thousand barrels per day.

China has added 7 2 gigawatts of coal capacity to reinforce energy security. New energy vehicles in China still sold about 1 82 million units in the latest month, representing 53 2 percent of sales and 21 percent growth. This mix illustrates gradual structural change rather than sudden destruction of oil demand. Combined with expanding oil and gas supply, it reinforces the theme of a heavy barrel in 2026 rather than a tight one.

Geopolitics Shadow Fleet Tanker Rates And Why The Risk Premium Stays Contained

Geopolitical risk is real but insufficient to flip the market’s direction. The United States has already seized a Venezuelan VLCC and is signaling more tanker seizures for sanctioned crude. Parts of the Russian shadow fleet have been hit by explosions or operational disruptions in other regions, and several Russian cargoes have wandered for weeks as sanctions and insurance issues complicate deliveries. Tanker freight rates have surged by several hundred percent, reflecting rerouting, insurance premia and ton mile distortions.

Even with these developments, WTI CL=F remains capped under 60 dollars, and Brent BZ=F trades only marginally above 60 dollars. That tells you that positioning is built around the surplus narrative. Traders are treating disruptions as temporary and reversible events inside a structurally oversupplied system. The risk premium exists but is shallow and short lived, and it is being arbitraged away by the sheer volume of barrels chasing buyers.

Trading Stance On WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F Tactical Bearish Structural Headwinds Verdict Sell Rallies

When prices volumes balances policy and charts are combined, the conclusion is straightforward. WTI CL=F trades near 57 30 dollars and faces strong resistance below 60 dollars with 62 dollars as a distant upper boundary. Brent BZ=F sits around 60 96 dollars and depends on the 60 dollar line to avoid a deeper leg lower. The projected 3 84 million barrels per day surplus for 2026, the mismatch between 860 thousand barrels per day demand growth and 2 4 million barrels per day supply growth, the steady expansion plans by major producers, and the trend of rallies being sold rather than extended are all aligned.

For WTI CL=F, the rational stance is to treat approaches to the 59 to 62 dollar area as opportunities to sell into strength with initial downside focus on the mid 50s and potential extension into the low 50s if macro data softens further. For Brent BZ=F, the sensible posture is underweight or short biased on moves into the 62 to 65 dollar band, with downside risk into the high 50s if the 60 dollar floor fails.

In practical terms, the tape is not pricing crude as a buy and hold opportunity at current levels. It is pricing CL=F and BZ=F as markets where the path of least resistance remains lower until either credible coordinated cuts remove millions of barrels per day from the forward balance or demand growth accelerates materially above the current 860 thousand barrels per day profile.

That’s TradingNEWS

Seller Control Persists

Despite arriving at this key confluence, sellers remain in clear control at writing with price pinned near session lows. This keeps today’s $4.07 low vulnerable heading into next week unless a meaningful intraday rally emerges before the close—currently showing no signs of materializing, though the significance of the 50-day line leaves room for a potential hold.

First 50-Day Test Since Reclaim

The 50-day average was decisively reclaimed in October and has not been revisited as support since. Friday marks the first touch in that span, making a defensive buyer response entirely normal and expected behavior. The low also reached the lower Bollinger Band (not shown), adding another classic oversold marker that often precedes at least short-term relief.

Deeper Downside Contingency

A decisive decline through today’s low would confirm continued weakness and target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $3.89—though that level lacks strong confluence and is therefore suspect as a final floor. A clean break there quickly exposes the 200-day average at $3.58 as the next major downside objective.

Monthly Reversal Risk Rising

Since July’s $2.62 swing low, natural gas has posted three straight months of higher highs and lows, defining a clear monthly uptrend. December delivered a new higher high at $5.50 before the current sharp retracement. Friday’s brief breach of last month’s $4.09 low—now being actively tested—raises the odds of a one-month bearish reversal, with a weekly or monthly close below confirming the pattern and its bearish implications.

Outlook

Natural gas has arrived at the highest-probability bounce zone with the 50-day average, channel line, and last month’s low all converging near $4.07–$4.09. A strong defense here fits historical behavior and could spark a tradeable relief rally; failure and close below $4.09 triggers a monthly reversal and opens a fast move toward $3.89 and ultimately the 200-day at $3.58.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver is having a “two-speed” day on Friday, December 12, 2025: it set a fresh all-time high early in the session, then pulled back sharply as traders locked in profits and macro headwinds returned.

By early afternoon in New York, spot silver (XAG/USD) was down about 3% near $61.7–$61.9 per ounce, after printing a record around $64.64–$64.66 earlier in the day.  ^[1]

So if you’re asking “silver price today — why is it down?” the short answer is: a classic profit-taking reversal from record highs, helped along by a firmer U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and risk-off crosswinds that pushed traders to reduce exposure ahead of key U.S. data next week.  ^[2]

Below is a complete, publication-ready breakdown of what moved silver today, what today’s leading analysts are watching, and where the next key levels and scenarios sit.

Silver price today: the latest levels (spot and futures)

• Spot silver (XAG/USD): fell about 3% to roughly $61.7 after hitting a record $64.64 earlier Friday (New York afternoon).  ^[3]
• Early read (morning): at 8:15 a.m. ET, one widely followed daily pricing snapshot showed silver around $64.47, underscoring how quickly the reversal developed later in the session.  ^[4]
• COMEX silver futures (reference point): the widely tracked Yahoo Finance futures series shows Dec. 12, 2025trading with a low near $61.88 and close around $62.17 (after a high above $65).  ^[5]

Big picture: even after today’s drop, silver is still sitting near record territory and remains up roughly 5% on the weekand well over 100% year-to-date, depending on the benchmark quoted.  ^[6]

Why is silver down today? The 5 main drivers behind the drop

1) Profit-taking after a historic run (the most direct catalyst)

Silver didn’t fall out of nowhere—it fell after making history.

Reuters attributed the move primarily to profit-taking, noting silver slid nearly 3% after touching a new record high.  ^[7]
FXStreet’s late-day analysis echoed that framing: silver “retreats from record high as investors lock in profits,” describing a drop of more than 3% after the new peak.  ^[8]

When an asset is up more than 100% in a year, “sell the rip” behavior becomes more common—especially into a weekend and after a string of consecutive up days.

2) The U.S. dollar stopped falling (and that matters for XAG/USD)

Silver is priced globally in dollars. When the USD firms, metals often feel pressure because they become more expensivefor non-U.S. buyers.

Reuters noted the dollar held steady after falling in recent sessions—something traders explicitly flagged as a headwind for dollar-priced metals.  ^[9]
In a separate Reuters FX report Friday, the dollar index rose to about 98.44, rebounding from a two‑month low even though it remained weaker on the week.  ^[10]

That “USD bounce” doesn’t need to be huge to trigger a metal pullback when positioning is stretched.

3) Treasury yields rose as markets digested Fed divisions and “higher-for-longer” risk

Precious metals are non-yielding assets. When bond yields rise, metals can lose some relative appeal—especially after a big rally.

Reuters’ global markets wrap reported U.S. 10‑year yields rising to around 4.186%, with investors reacting to Fed commentary and mixed signals.  ^[11]
And on the Fed itself, Reuters highlighted that multiple officials dissented on the most recent rate cut decision and voiced concern that inflation remains too high—reinforcing uncertainty around how quickly cuts can continue.  ^[12]

That combination—slightly higher yields + a less one‑way Fed outlook—often hits silver harder than gold because silver is “more volatile” and more sensitive to swings in risk appetite and macro pricing.

4) Risk-off spillover: tech/AI volatility triggered de-risking across markets

Friday wasn’t just a silver story. It was also a day where stocks dropped and investors worried about frothy AI trades.

Reuters reported major indexes falling sharply, with tech shares under pressure and yields rising.  ^[13]
FXStreet also tied the silver pullback to broader risk-off conditions, noting U.S. stocks declined while yields climbed and “AI-bubble” worries resurfaced.  ^[14]

When equities get hit, traders sometimes reduce risk across portfolios, including trimming “winner” positions like silver to raise cash or rebalance exposure.

5) Technical exhaustion: overbought signals and a textbook reversal pattern

Several Dec. 12 technical notes pointed to overstretch.

• FXStreet warned the rally looked overbought, citing RSI signals and bearish divergence as silver struggled to hold above $64.  ^[15]
• Another FXStreet update described a bearish engulfing pattern and negative RSI divergence, flagging elevated near‑term retracement risk.  ^[16]
• FXStreet’s later analysis added that silver broke below its rising channel after the peak and framed a pullback toward prior breakout levels as “healthy,” unless it turns into a deeper breakdown.  ^[17]

In plain English: after a vertical climb, stop-losses and profit targets tend to cluster. Once selling starts, the move can accelerate fast—especially in a market known for sharp percentage swings.

Today’s news backdrop: silver is down now, but the “bull case” headlines didn’t disappear

Even with Friday’s pullback, many of the same forces that helped push silver to records are still being cited in today’s coverage:

Silver’s “critical minerals” angle is now a mainstream driver

Multiple reports today pointed to silver’s addition to a U.S. critical minerals list and the knock-on effects on supply chains and tariff expectations.  ^[18]

That matters because it can incentivize inventory shifts (metal moving into U.S. warehouses) and complicate global availability—both of which can amplify price moves.

Physical tightness, deficits, and inventory reshuffling remain central themes

The Silver Institute and Metals Focus have repeatedly emphasized that 2025 is on track for another structural market deficit—a key plank of the bull narrative.  ^[19]
ING’s recent research also described a tariff-driven flow of metal and tightness in key hubs, arguing volatility is likely to remain a defining feature into 2026.  ^[20]

Industrial demand is not just “solar” anymore — AI and data centers are now in the story

Business and market coverage in December has increasingly linked silver demand to the AI build‑out, data centers, and electronics—on top of EVs and solar.  ^[21]

This “dual-use” identity (industrial + precious metal) is one reason silver can surge dramatically—and also why it can reverse sharply on risk-off days.

Forecasts and analyst views dated Dec. 12, 2025: what’s next for silver?

Today’s published outlooks are not unanimous. But they cluster around a few consistent ideas:

Near-term: volatility and “retest” risk is front and center

FXStreet’s end-of-day note suggested silver may be headed toward a test of prior breakout zones—roughly the $59–$60region—while emphasizing that a retest can be constructive if it holds.  ^[22]

Key upside targets cited today: $65, then higher extensions

Earlier on Dec. 12—before the selloff—FXStreet noted that silver was consolidating above $64 and pointed to potential upside tests near $65, with higher technical extensions beyond that if momentum resumes.  ^[23]

Separately, Reuters (in its earlier precious-metals framing) noted that some analysts see technical momentum pointing toward $75—a level that has become a recurring “next milestone” in bullish commentary.  ^[24]

Support levels highlighted today (the levels traders are watching now)

Across today’s technical updates, several support areas were repeated:

• $61.00 (near-term “line in the sand” in some technical commentary)  ^[25]
• $60.09 / ~$60.00 (recent lows and psychological level)  ^[26]
• ~$59.40–$59.85 (prior record/high‑turned‑support zone and channel area cited in analysis)  ^[27]
• $57.75–$57.25 (deeper correction zone discussed if the pullback accelerates)  ^[28]

On the upside, FXStreet framed $62 as a near-term pivot to watch after the drop, with resistance returning near the mid‑$64s if bulls regain control.  ^[29]

What to watch next week (and why it matters for silver)

Today’s selloff happened with traders already looking ahead.

1) U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and delayed macro data

Reuters and FXStreet both pointed to next week’s U.S. jobs data as a key catalyst.  ^[30]

If jobs data comes in hot, yields can rise and the dollar can strengthen—often a headwind for silver. If it cools, rate-cut expectations can reaccelerate—often supportive for precious metals.

2) The Fed narrative: “cuts happened, but division is growing”

The Fed has cut, but dissent and inflation concern remain part of the story, according to Reuters reporting.  ^[31]

For silver, that means the market may swing rapidly between:

• “More cuts are coming” (bullish metals), and
• “The Fed may pause / inflation is sticky” (supportive for USD/yields, sometimes bearish metals).

3) Risk appetite and the AI trade

Because silver is tied to industrial growth expectations and risk positioning, sharp moves in tech and broader equity sentiment can bleed into silver—especially after a year like 2025 where silver became one of the standout momentum trades.  ^[32]

Bottom line: silver is down today — but the market is still in “record territory mode”

Silver’s drop on Dec. 12, 2025 is best described as a violent reset after a record high, driven by profit-taking, a firmer dollar, higher yields, and technical exhaustion.  ^[33]

At the same time, the rally’s underlying pillars—tight physical conditions, structural deficit narratives, and industrial demand tied to electrification and AI-era infrastructure—remain prominent in today’s reporting.  ^[34]

That tension is why many analysts expect more volatility rather than a smooth trend from here.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

References

1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. fortune.com, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.fxstreet.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.fxstreet.com, 15. www.fxstreet.com, 16. www.fxstreet.com, 17. www.fxstreet.com, 18. www.fxstreet.com, 19. silverinstitute.org, 20. think.ing.com, 21. www.businessinsider.com, 22. www.fxstreet.com, 23. www.fxstreet.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.fxstreet.com, 26. www.fxstreet.com, 27. www.fxstreet.com, 28. www.fxstreet.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. silverinstitute.org

Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) rose in its latest intraday trading, benefiting from the dominance of the main medium-term ascending trend with the price moving alongside a supporting trendline. The stock is attempting to shed the negative pressure of its previous 50-day SMA. However, this effort is being constrained by the arrival of negative signals from the RSI indicators after they reached extremely overbought levels, which may temporarily halt a full recovery.

Therefore we expect the stock to rise in its upcoming trading, provided the support level at $155.00 holds, targeting the resistance level of $180.30.

Today’s price forecast: Neutral

Gold prices added roughly 3% in the week, flirting with the $4,350 mark on Friday, to finally settle at around $4,330. Despite its safe-haven condition, the bright metal rallied in a risk-on scenario, amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.

Gold appreciates as investors bet against the Fed

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut at its last 2025 meeting, reducing the Federal Funds Target Range (FFTR) to 3.50–3.75%, as expected. Out of the 12 voting members, Stephen Miran argued for a 50 bps cut, while Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, preferred to keep it unchanged.

The decision came with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the usual Chairman Jerome Powell press conference. Officials revised the median 2026 projection in real GDP growth to 2.3% vs. 1.9% in the September SEP. Inflation is expected to be 2.0% in 2027 vs. 1.9% in September, and 1.9% in 2028 vs. 1.8% projected in September. Regarding employment, projections remained unchanged, while the 2028 estimate was down to 4.2% from 4.3%. Also, Core PCE inflation is now expected to finish 2025 at 3.0%, ease to 2.5% in 2026, to 1% in 2027 and to 2.0% in 2028. Finally, policymakers foresee one rate cut in 2026 and another one in 2027

Powell’s presser revolved around the Fed’s dual mandate: the Chair highlighted that policymakers are juggling to bring inflation down while avoiding unnecessary damage to the labour market. However, he also added that the economy is not overheated and that rate hikes remain off the table.

Market players took some time to assess the mixed announcement, but ended up betting against the Fed: investors expect at least two interest rate cuts in 2026, which led to renewed optimism. High-yielding assets rallied to the detriment of the Greenback. Safe-haven Gold also gained on broad USD weakness.

US employment data in focus

Meanwhile, the United States (US) released some relevant employment figures. On the one hand, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average showed that the private sector added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, better than the previous three negative readings.

Also, the number of job openings on the last business day of September stood at 7.658 million, while for October it rose to 7.67 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday.

Finally, the country released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 6 on Thursday, which unexpectedly jumped to 236K from 192K in the previous week. The reading also surpassed the 220K expected, fueling speculation that the Fed will have to deliver at least two rate cuts in 2026, and hence, further pressuring the US Dollar.

Focus on US first-tier data

In the upcoming days, the US macroeconomic calendar will be quite busy, with employment and inflation figures taking centre stage. Fed speakers will return to the scenario, most likely with hawkish messages. S&P Global will release the preliminary estimates of the December Purchasing Manager’s Indexes (PMIs) on Tuesday. On the same day, the country will release October Retail Sales, expected to rise modestly by 0.3%, and the November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will also include some of the missing October data.

On Thursday, it will be the turn of another weekly unemployment report and fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Given that employment and inflation updates will follow and not precede the Fed’s decision, there’s a good chance that such numbers will result in increased volatility ahead of the winter holidays in the northern hemisphere. In the current scenario, and if employment-related figures hint at persistent weakness, the USD is likely to end the year on the back foot.

XAU/USD technical outlook

In the weekly chart, XAU/USD trades near its recent high and has room to extend its advance. The 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads north almost vertically, well below the current level, while above the 100- and 200-week SMAs, underscoring a robust bullish trend. Price holds well above its key averages, and the 20-week SMA at $3,838.86 offers critical dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains above its midline but lost its upward strength, reflecting a modest loss of speed after recent gains. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 75, yet without suggesting upward exhaustion. The bullish bias could suffer if the pair returns to levels below $4,250, yet for the most part, the pair is likely to retest record highs.

Taking a look at the daily chart, XAU/USD is bullish, yet likely to enter a consolidative stage. The 20-day SMA climbs above the 100- and 200-day SMAs as all three trend higher, underscoring a firm bullish bias. The shorter SMA provides dynamic support at around $4,172. Technical indicators have reached overbought territory and partially lost their upward strength, hinting at a potential corrective decline in the upcoming sessions. Still, the broader uptrend prevails, with speculative interest likely to push the bright metal towards the $4,380 region and beyond.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Natural gas price succeeded in resuming the bearish corrective attack, targeting extra support level at $4.200, reminding you that monitoring the price behavior now to confirm the expected targets in the upcoming trading.

The stability above this support will push it to begin forming bullish waves, to target $4.550 level reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level near $4.750, while breaking the current support will ease the mission of pressing on the bullish channel’s support at $3.950, increasing the chances of moving to the negative scenario in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.200 and $4.550

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair didn’t move anything by forming sideways trading due to its stability continuously below the resistance at 208.80, forming an obstacle for resuming the bullish trend.

The price might form temporary corrective trading, but the stability within the bullish channel levels and the continuation of forming extra support at 206.90 level, these factors support the chances of renewing the bullish attack, to expect surpassing the current resistance by recording new gains that might extend 209.30 and 209.75.

The expected trading range for today is between 207.40 and 208.90

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend