Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market simultaneously decreased sharply in key production areas. The average price was recorded at 92,300 VND/kg, down 2,500 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 2,500 VND/kg, down to 92,200 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices also decreased by 2,500 VND/kg, reaching 92,300 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today decreased by 2,500 VND/kg, down to 91,800 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a purchase price of 92,300 VND/kg, down 2,500 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

After two consecutive sharp declines, the domestic coffee price level has receded far from the previously recorded 96,000-97,000 VND/kg range.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,081 VND/USD, up 5 VND.

World coffee prices

World coffee prices continued to fall sharply in the most recent trading session. Both Robusta on the London exchange and Arabica on the New York exchange sank into red.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 131 USD/ton, equivalent to 3.38%, to 3,741/ton.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 3,914 USD/ton but then reversed to a sharp decrease, sometimes down to 3,709 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 13,281 lots.

Robusta futures for November 2026 decreased by 127 USD/ton, equivalent to 3.31%, to 3,712 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms decreased by 124 USD/ton and 122 USD/ton, respectively, to 3,682 USD/ton and 3,651 USD/ton.

The July 2026 Robusta contract decreased by 303 USD/ton, to 3,761/ton. However, this term has low trading volume because it is close to maturity, so the September contract reflects the market trend more clearly.

On the New York floor, Arabica also continued to decline. The Arabica futures contract for September 2026 decreased by 7.80 US cents/lb, equivalent to 2.46%, to 309.80 US cents/lb.

Arabica futures for December 2026 decreased by 7.75 US cents/lb, equivalent to 2.54%, to 297.25 US cents/lb.

The March and May 2027 terms decreased by 8.05 US cents/lb and 8.70 US cents/lb, respectively, to 292.20 US cents/lb and 290.45 US cents/lb.

Arabica contract for July 2026 decreased by 7.35 US cents/lb, to 324.25 US cents/lb. However, this term has very low trading volume, so it is not the main reference for market trends.

Coffee price assessment

Coffee prices continued to adjust after the previous hot increase. The fact that Robusta and Arabica prices both decreased shows that profit-taking pressure is still high in the international market.

In the short term, after prices increase too quickly, coffee contracts are likely to fall into a state of technical adjustment. When new buying power weakens, selling activity may pull prices down deeper, especially for items that have increased sharply in previous sessions.

However, the current decline does not mean that price supporting factors have disappeared. The market is still closely monitoring weather developments in Brazil, especially during the harvest period and preparing to enter the coffee tree flowering period.

Brazil is the world’s largest Arabica producer. Therefore, weather risks, harvest progress or grain quality in this country can still strongly impact Arabica prices on the New York exchange.

From a global supply-demand perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) once recorded a decrease in the ICO aggregate price index in May 2026, in the context of the market reacting to the prospect of improved supply.

Supply prospects are also a factor putting pressure on prices in the medium term. The Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) forecasts that Brazil will have a large coffee crop in the 2026-2027 crop year, thanks to the recovery of Arabica production.

Rabobank of the Netherlands also assessed that the expectation of a large coffee crop in Brazil may put pressure on global prices, as general weather conditions are favorable for crop development.

For Robusta, supply from Vietnam continues to be an important factor. The USDA/FAS report in Vietnam forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year will increase to 32.5 million bags converted to green beans, thanks to production expansion after a period of high coffee prices.

This shows that the Robusta market may be under pressure from the prospect of improved supply. Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta producer, so information about Vietnam’s output and exports still has a major impact on international Robusta prices.

However, the coffee market still has potential for major fluctuations. Inventory, weather in Brazil, El Niño developments and farmers’ sales activities in major producing countries will continue to dominate prices in the coming time.

Copper price activated the negative attempts, to press on the moving average 55, approaching the initial target at $5.9500 to settle near $6.0500.

Reminding you that the stability below the barrier near $6.3000, beside stochastic attempt to provide negative momentum supports the chances of resuming the bearish corrective attempts by reaching below the moving average 55 and reaching the extra negative stations near $5.8200 and $5.7100.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.1500

Trend forecast: Bearish

2026.07.08 2026.07.08
Oil Price Surges as US-Iran Ceasefire Over. Forecast as of 08.07.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has given Donald Trump an opportunity to declare that it’s all over. The deal is canceled, and everything is back to square one. Judging by the rally in Brent, that seems to be the case. However, are investors being led up the garden path? Let’s discuss this and develop a trading plan.

Major Takeaways

• The US is ready to withdraw from the deal with Iran.
• The oil market turned bullish again.
• China continues to stabilize the market.
• Long positions on Brent can be considered with targets of $82.5 and $84.5.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Oil

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. In recent weeks, the markets have lived with the sense that the worst of the conflict in the Middle East was behind them. Brent quickly returned to pre-war levels, and Macquarie and Citigroup predicted that prices would fall to $60 per barrel in the coming months. Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by the US response, appeared at first glance to be a black swan event. In reality, it was entirely predictable. The positions of the two sides were simply too far apart.

The main drivers behind Brent’s drop to February lows were record US exports—which allowed Europe and Asia to meet demand for the next 2–3 months—a reduction in global reserves to their lowest level since December 1990, and a sharp decline in Chinese imports. Against this backdrop, the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resulted in oil shipments that proved unnecessary.

OECD Government Oil Stocks

Source: Bloomberg.

Adding to the bearish pressure are OPEC+ plans to raise production by 180,000 bpd, Iran’s rapid increase in exports, and the swift recovery of output in Gulf states. As a result, even 30–60 tankers passing through the world’s key oil chokepoint were enough to fuel concerns about a potential supply surplus. According to Vortexa, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz before the escalation reached 40% of pre-conflict levels.

Interestingly, China has once again increased its oil purchases. While some have described Beijing as a savior of the global economy, its actions are largely driven by market conditions: China tends to buy more when Brent prices decline and scale back imports when prices rise.

Chinese Oil Imports

Source: Bloomberg.

In general, given the reluctance of OECD countries to quickly rebuild their stockpiles prior to Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude was indeed closer to $60 than to $80 per barrel. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East changed everything. The oil market quickly shifted from contango to backwardation, where more distant contracts are cheaper than those for immediate delivery. This indicates either strong demand or supply constraints. Clearly, the latter is the case.

Donald Trump’s words that it’s all over and he doesn’t want to deal with Iran suggest that investors can expect more intense hostilities than before unless the US leader changes his mind.

Weekly Trading Plan for Brent

Brent‘s rebound from the lower boundary of the $70–80 range signaled profit-taking on short positions and triggered a reversal. A further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would provide grounds for increasing long positions with targets of $82.5 and $84.5. Alternatively, if the US and Iran return to the negotiating table, Brent crude will likely remain stuck in this consolidation range.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of UKBRENT in real time mode

Copper price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the contradiction of the main indicators against holding below $6.3000 barrier, the price needs to settle below $5.9500 level, reinforcing the chances of targeting the corrective stations, which might begin at $5.8200 and $5.7100.

Surpassing the barrier will cancel the corrective scenario, to open the way for recording clear gains by its rally towards $5.4300 initially, to attempt to surpass $6.5200, to confirm the continuation of the positivity in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.2600

Trend forecast: Bearish

Price movements in platinum are often sharper than gold or silver due to its limited availability and reliance on a few global mining regions. Automotive regulations, global production levels, and technology usage influence the platinum price today. As platinum becomes more relevant in clean energy applications, its daily rate has gained importance for both buyers and investors.

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market decreased sharply after the previous surge. The average price was recorded at 94,800 VND/kg, down 2,100 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 2,000 VND/kg, down to 94,700 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices also decreased by 2,000 VND/kg, reaching 94,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today decreased by 1,900 VND/kg, down to 94,300 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a purchase price of 94,800 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate from 94. 300-94. 800 VND/kg. The gap between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 500 VND/kg.

Despite a sharp decrease, the domestic coffee price level is still higher than the price range at the beginning of July. This development shows that the market is adjusting after a hot increase.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,076 VND/USD, an increase of 4 VND.

World coffee prices

World coffee prices simultaneously fell sharply in the most recent trading session, after a shock increase in the previous session.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 172 USD/ton, equivalent to 4.25%, to 3,872 USD/ton.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 4,121 USD/ton but then decreased sharply, sometimes down to 3,846 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 18,153 lots.

Robusta for November 2026 delivery fell 168 USD/ton, equivalent to 4.19%, to 3,839 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms decreased by 168 USD/ton and 169 USD/ton respectively, to 3,806 USD/ton and 3.773 USD/ton.

The July 2026 Robusta contract decreased by 172 USD/ton, to 3,892 USD/ton. However, this term is close to maturity, so the trading volume is low; the September contract reflects the market trend more clearly.

On the New York exchange, Arabica fell very sharply. September 2026 Arabica futures fell 32.35 US cents/lb, equivalent to 9.24%, to 317.60 US cents/lb.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 350.00 US cents/lb but then reversed sharply, sometimes falling back to 315.40 US cents/lb.

Arabica December 2026 futures fell 30.40 US cents/lb, or 9.06%, to 305.00 US cents/lb.

March and May 2027 terms decreased by 29.50 US cents/lb and 28.95 US cents/lb respectively, to 300.25 US cents/lb and 299.15 US cents/lb.

Coffee price assessment

According to data from Barchart, coffee prices fell sharply on Tuesday as the market returned some of the shocking increase of the first session of the week.

After coffee prices rose too quickly to a high level, the market appeared pressure to take profits and liquidate buy positions. Barchart believes that the move to raise margin requirements for coffee futures contract transactions by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also increased selling pressure.

However, the factors supporting coffee prices have not disappeared. A report by consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil’s 2026-2027 coffee harvest has only completed 52% as of July 1, lower than the 60% level in the same period last year and the 5-year average of 55%.

Slow harvest progress increases concerns that spot supply will be tightened in the short term. Previously, heavy rains in Brazil have repeatedly disrupted coffee harvesting, transportation and drying operations.

However, Somar Meteorologia said that Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s largest coffee growing region, did not record rain in the week ending July 5. This shows that weather risks need to be assessed by production region.

Standard Arabica coffee inventories on the US Intercontinental Exchange continued to decrease, down to 362,466 bags. This is the lowest area in more than 2 years, continuing to create support for prices after the adjustment.

Conversely, Robusta inventories on the European Intercontinental Exchange increased to 4,183 lots, the highest level in about 3 and a half months. The volume of goods meeting recovery standards is one of the factors putting pressure on Robusta prices.

El Niño risk is still being monitored by businesses. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assesses that El Niño is likely to strengthen in the 2026-2027 winter of the Northern Hemisphere.

El Niño could change rainfall in Brazil during the coffee flowering period in September and October, and also affect Robusta production conditions in some Asian countries.

In terms of pressure, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) still forecasts Brazil to have a large coffee crop in the 2026-2027 crop year. Rabobank of the Netherlands also raised its global Arabica surplus forecast for the 2026-2027 crop year from 7 million bags to 9.5 million bags.

Regarding Robusta, the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance) of our country said that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 6 months of 2026 increased compared to the same period. Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta producer, so increased supply is still a factor that can curb price increases in the medium term.

From a fundamental perspective, the core driver of today’s WTI crude oil rally stems from the re-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Previously, the market was trading on a de-escalation logic—expecting progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the recovery of Gulf shipping, and the potential return of Iranian crude to Asian markets—which had put under pressure on oil prices. However, the latest developments indicate that this expectation of de-escalation is being shattered.

According to reports, several commercial vessels were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker. Since the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical transit chokepoints for crude oil and liquefied natural gas, the attacks on these vessels immediately altered the market’s assessment of supply security.

The U.S. subsequently took tougher action. The Trump administration launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets and revoked waivers that previously allowed Iran to sell a limited amount of crude oil. The impact of this shift on oil prices was highly direct: on one hand, the military action means the ceasefire and negotiation framework between the U.S. and Iran is at risk of collapse; on the other hand, the revocation of Iran’s crude export waivers weakened market expectations regarding the return of Iranian supply.

Iran, meanwhile, denied responsibility for the attacks on the vessels and accused the U.S. of violating previous agreements. Iranian officials stated that the renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and the revocation of oil sale waivers disrupted existing understandings, and warned of potential countermeasures. For the market, Iran’s response means the risk of further escalation remains. If Iran takes retaliatory action or if the U.S. continues to expand its strikes, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz could rise further, leaving room for oil prices to push higher.

WTI crude oil daily chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily chart of WTI crude oil, influenced by yesterday’s escalation of the US-Iran conflict, oil prices surged during the session, closing with a gain of 5.22% and successfully reclaiming the $70 mark. This reversed the recent sluggish state of bulls in the crude oil market and significantly bolstered the market’s buying momentum.

From the moving average perspective, oil prices successfully broke through the resistance of both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages yesterday. The market’s bullish momentum has been further strengthened, and oil prices are expected to continue their technical corrective rebound in the short term.

Currently, as oil prices reclaim the $70 level, upside potential has opened up. The primary target for the rally will be to test the $75 resistance level. If oil prices can breakout strongly and consolidate above $75, they are expected to test the $80 mark in the short term.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.