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The price of crude oil rose for the third consecutive day. Today the price rose $1.44 or 1.72% to $85.15. That took the price to the highest level since October 27, 2023.
The high price today reached $85.46. The low price was at $83.85.
Technically, the price is closing above its 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2023 high. That level comes in at $84.59. It would take a move below that level to give sellers some comfort. Absent that, the buyers are in firm control.
The next topside target off the daily chart, comes in at $85.90, and then there is not a lot of resistance until around $89.85
WTI crude oil futures (CL=F) briefly topped $85 per barrel on Tuesday while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, rose above $88 per barrel.
The year-to-date rise in oil prices comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East, drone attacks against Russian refineries, and expectations that OPEC+ will maintain its production cuts at least until June.
Last month, Russia announced it would further its output reductions, prompting JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva to contemplate Brent crude oil reaching $100 per barrel by September.
“At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s actions could push Brent oil price to $90 already in April, reach mid-$90 by May and close to $100 by September,” Kaneva and her team wrote in a note last week.
Analysts across Wall Street have also been raising their price targets as crude has gained more than 15% this year.
In March, Morgan Stanley strategist Martijn Rats raised his Brent crude price forecast by $10 per barrel to $90 by the third quarter of this year given “tighter supply/demand balances.”
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts last week said, “We continue to expect Brent crude oil prices to remain well supported at the top-end of our $70-$90/bbl [per barrel] range for the remainder of the year.”
The firm wrote, “Ukraine’s escalating attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, predominantly refineries, is another source of ongoing geopolitical risk and only exacerbates the present tightness in refined products,” adding that “risks to physical oil flows remain high.”
Still, Kaneva and the team at JPMorgan expect to see Brent prices trade near current levels into the second half of this year.
“The lesson from the 2022 energy crisis taught us that there are multiple levers that can quite effectively mitigate the impact of the high prices,” JPMorgan wrote. “Our view remains that given the US dollar strength and high borrowing costs, oil prices substantially above $90 can cause severe disruptions in the global oil demand — as was the case in March-June 2022 and in September-October 2023 — in turn resulting in lower prices.”
The move in oil prices has also led to the energy sector outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year, with the S&P 500 Energy Select ETF (XLE) touching another 52-week high on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off in the stock market.
The energy sector is up 14% so far this year, outpacing the S&P 500’s 9% gain. Oil- and gas-related equities were also the biggest winners in the S&P 500 last month.
“Energy stocks are playing catch up and their history points to further near-term gains,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a client note on Tuesday.
“Oil prices have stabilized, a necessary precondition to sector outperformance. And, should we see a geopolitically-driven oil price shock this year, the group offers a unique hedge against that risk.”
Colas noted that when WTI crude prices ranged between $80 and $100 per barrel between 2008 and 2014, XLE typically outperformed.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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Spot Gold resumed its advance on Tuesday, resulting in XAU/USD reaching a fresh all-time high of $2,276.90 in the American session. The US Dollar pared gains at the beginning of the day and lost some additional ground after Wall Street’s opening, despite generally upbeat United States (US) data and the poor performance of US indexes.
The country reported that February Factory Orders were up 1.4%, beating the 1% expected and improving from -3.8% in January. Also, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of job openings on the last business day of February stood at 8.75 million. The figure surpassed the previous 8.74 million, downwardly revised from 8.86 million. The headline figure shows the labor market is still far from cooling as the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like.
Finally, several Fed officials hit the wires, although only Cleveland Federal President Loretta Mester referred to monetary policy. Mester was cautious, as despite saying she still expects the Fed can cut rates later this year, she warned that moving rates down too soon or too quickly would risk the progress made on inflation.
Wall Street is under strong selling pressure as government bond yields soar. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note peaked at 4.40% today, its highest since last December, while the 2-year note offers 4.70%, not far below the year peak.
XAU/USD bullish trend remains firm in place, according to the daily chart, as the pair has consistently advanced beyond bullish moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its bullish slope above bullish, longer ones, which also offer upward slopes. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains significantly positive, reflecting sustained buying interest. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands in overbought territory, further reflecting the upward strength.
The XAU/USD pair 4-hour chart offers a similar picture, as the bright metal extends gains well beyond bullish moving averages, reflecting the prevalent uptrend. Furthermore, the widening distance between the price and the moving averages suggest that the bullish momentum is gaining strength. Technical indicators reinforce the bullish narrative, holding within overbought readings. Despite losing upward strength, the case for a downward extension seems limited as the price holds around $2,260.
Support levels: 2,250.70 2,234.50 2,217.90
Resistance levels: 2,277.10 2,290.00 2,310.00
Spot Gold resumed its advance on Tuesday, resulting in XAU/USD reaching a fresh all-time high of $2,276.90 in the American session. The US Dollar pared gains at the beginning of the day and lost some additional ground after Wall Street’s opening, despite generally upbeat United States (US) data and the poor performance of US indexes.
The country reported that February Factory Orders were up 1.4%, beating the 1% expected and improving from -3.8% in January. Also, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of job openings on the last business day of February stood at 8.75 million. The figure surpassed the previous 8.74 million, downwardly revised from 8.86 million. The headline figure shows the labor market is still far from cooling as the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like.
Finally, several Fed officials hit the wires, although only Cleveland Federal President Loretta Mester referred to monetary policy. Mester was cautious, as despite saying she still expects the Fed can cut rates later this year, she warned that moving rates down too soon or too quickly would risk the progress made on inflation.
Wall Street is under strong selling pressure as government bond yields soar. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note peaked at 4.40% today, its highest since last December, while the 2-year note offers 4.70%, not far below the year peak.
XAU/USD bullish trend remains firm in place, according to the daily chart, as the pair has consistently advanced beyond bullish moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its bullish slope above bullish, longer ones, which also offer upward slopes. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains significantly positive, reflecting sustained buying interest. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands in overbought territory, further reflecting the upward strength.
The XAU/USD pair 4-hour chart offers a similar picture, as the bright metal extends gains well beyond bullish moving averages, reflecting the prevalent uptrend. Furthermore, the widening distance between the price and the moving averages suggest that the bullish momentum is gaining strength. Technical indicators reinforce the bullish narrative, holding within overbought readings. Despite losing upward strength, the case for a downward extension seems limited as the price holds around $2,260.
Support levels: 2,250.70 2,234.50 2,217.90
Resistance levels: 2,277.10 2,290.00 2,310.00
May arabica coffee (KCK24) this morning is up +6.40 (+3.34%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK24) is up +162 (+4.66%).
Coffee prices this morning are sharply higher, with arabica posting a 4-week high and robusta posting a new record high. Coffee prices have carryover support from Monday on concern that recent heavy rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions may have damaged coffee crops. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received 75.4 mm of rainfall in the past week, or 335% of the historical average. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil’s arabica crop.
Tight robusta coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee beans, are a major bullish price factor. , Vietnam’s agriculture department projected last Tuesday that Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year could drop by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought. Also, the Vietnam Coffee Association said that Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee exports could drop -20% y/y to 1.336 MM. In addition, Marex Group Plc forecasts a global 2024/25 robusta coffee deficit of -2.7 million bags due to reduced output in Vietnam.
A rebound in Vietnam’s coffee exports is bearish for robusta prices. Today, Vietnam’s agricultural ministry reported that Vietnam’s Q1 coffee exports rose +8.3% y/y to 599,000 MT.
In a bearish factor, Rabobank on March 14 predicted a coffee surplus of 4.5 million bags for the upcoming 2024-25 marketing year, up sharply from the 500,000 bag surplus projected for 2023-24. On the bullish side, Rabobank reduced its 2023-24 production forecast by 3.9 million bags to 171.1 million bags, mainly because of downward revisions to production estimates for Indonesia and Honduras.
Coffee inventories have rebounded from historically low levels. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories on February 21 fell to a record low of 1,958 lots, although they recovered to a 2-1/4 month high of 3,058 lots Tuesday. Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 24-year low of 224,066 bags on November 30, but they recovered to a 10-month high last Thursday of 595,209 bags.
Larger coffee exports from Brazil are bearish for prices. Cecafe reported on February 14 that Brazil’s Jan coffee exports jumped +45% y/y to 3.7 million bags. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee beans. Separately, Brazil exporter group Comexim, on February 1, raised its Brazil 2023/24 coffee export estimate to 44.9 million bags from a previous estimate of 41.5 million bags.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently reported that Jan global coffee exports rose +32.3% y/y to 12.62 million bags, and from Oct-Jan, global coffee exports rose +13.1% y/y to 45.125 million bags.
This year’s El Nino weather event is bullish for coffee prices. An El Nino pattern typically brings heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting coffee crop production. The El Nino event may bring drought to Vietnam’s coffee areas late this year and in early 2024, according to an official from Vietnam’s Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change.
In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected on December 5 that 2023/24 global coffee production would climb +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. ICO also projects global 2023/24 coffee consumption will rise +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.
The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), in its biannual report released on December 21, projected that world coffee production in 2023/24 will increase +4.2% y/y to 171.4 million bags, with a +10.7% increase in arabica production to 97.3 million bags, and a -3.3% decline in robusta production to 74.1 million bags. The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2023/24 ending stocks will fall by -4.0% to 26.5 million bags from 27.6 million bags in 2022-23. The USDA’s FAS projects that Brazil’s 2023/24 arabica production would climb +12.8% y/y to 44.9 mln bags due to higher yields and increased planted acreage. The USDA’s FAS also forecasts that 2023/24 coffee production in Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, will climb +7.5% y/y to 11.5 mln bags.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
ChiniMandi, Mumbai: 2nd April 2024
Domestic Market
Domestic sugar were reported firm
Domestic sugar prices in major markets were reported to be firm with prices inching higher by Rs 10-15 per quintal in the major markets of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Furthermore, demand is said to be stronger as trading resumed after a financial year closure.
In Muzaffarnagar, M-grade sugar range between Rs 3,760 and Rs 3,800 per quintal, while S-grade sugar is ranges between Rs 3,430 and Rs 3,470. Agrimandi expects the price of S grade sugar in the Kolhapur market to fall to between Rs 3,400 and Rs 3,480 per quintal within the next two weeks.
Ex-mill Sugar Prices as on April, 2 2024 :
State |
S/30 [Rates per Quintal] |
M/30 [Rates per Quintal] |
Maharashtra |
₹3440 to 3470 |
₹3520 to 3550 |
Karnataka |
₹3620 to 3630 |
₹3675 |
Uttar Pradesh |
₹3760 to 3790 |
|
Gujarat |
₹3461 to 3491 |
₹3511 to 3551 |
Tamil Nadu |
₹3600 to 3800 |
₹3660 to 3850 |
Madhya Pradesh |
₹3600 to 3610 |
₹3650 to 3660 |
Punjab |
₹3825 to 3860 |
|
(All the above rates are excluding GST) |
Destination-wise Spot Prices as on April, 2 2024 :
City |
Grade |
Rate |
Delhi |
M/30 |
₹4,005.75 |
Kanpur |
M/30 |
₹3,958.50 |
Kolhapur |
M/30 |
₹3,738.00 |
Kolkata |
M/30 |
₹3,979.50 |
Muzaffarnagar |
M/30 |
₹3,953.25 |
International Market
At the time of writing this update London White Sugar #5 front month contract is trading at $660.10 ton, whereas the New York Sugar #11 front month contract is trading at 22.85 c/lb.
Currency, Commodity & Indian Indices
The rupee traded against the US dollar at 83.410 whereas USD was trading with BRL at 5.0551, Crude futures traded at ₹7078, Crude WTI traded at $84.92 barrel. Sensex closed 110.64 points lower at 73903.91 whereas Nifty ended 8.70 points lower at 22453.30
News Round-Up
Season 2023-24: Latest sugar production updates by ISMA till March 31
Season 2023-24: Latest sugar production updates by ISMA till March 31
Sugar production in India reaches around 300 lakh tonnes
Sugar MSP should be increased to Rs 45 per kg: Sanjay Khatal
Sugar MSP should be increased to Rs 45 per kg: Sanjay Khatal
WTI futures traded at $85.38 per barrel, as of 9 a.m. ET. Year to date, WTI prices are up by 16.26%.
Brent futures traded around $89.27/bbl, an increase of 1.73% in the last 24 hours. Year to date, Brent prices are up by 12.91%.
WTI futures rose by 1.97% to $85.38/bbl, as of 9 a.m. ET.
West Texas Intermediate prices have drifted lower in 2024, but prices are up 42.16% over the past three years.
WTI crude fell to its 52-week low of $64.00 per barrel on May 3, 2023. It reached its 52-week high of $95.52 on Sep. 27, 2023. That’s 10.62% higher than the current futures price.
Brent futures rose by 1.73% to $89.27/bbl, as of 9 a.m. ET.
Brent crude oil is generally subject to the same supply and demand factors that influence WTI crude prices, so the long-term price chart looks extremely similar to the WTI chart.
Brent crude oil prices hit their all-time high of $147.50/bbl during the oil market boom in July 2008. However, WTI futures contract prices dropped to as low as negative $40/bbl on April 20, 2020, driven largely by a lack of U.S. storage options during the COVID-19 pandemic. Brent futures contracts remained well above zero, bottoming at around $25/bbl that day.
Brent crude fell to its 52-week low of $68.20 per barrel on May 3, 2023. It reached its 52-week high of $96.62 on Sep. 27, 2023. That’s 0.08% higher than the current futures price.
Crude oil is one of the most important commodities in the world, serving as a key energy source and as a raw material used to produce plastics, chemicals and other products. Nearly all the crude oil imported or produced in the U.S. is refined into petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel and heating oil.
The prices of U.S. WTI crude oil and international Brent crude oil are influenced by several factors that can change the market’s supply and demand balance.
The weather in the U.S. market can drastically alter near-term demand for heating oil and natural gas, sending crude oil prices higher.
Natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts worldwide can disrupt production and create oil supply shortages. The U.S. and global economies experience much higher industrial energy demand during periods of strong economic growth and lower demand during economic downturns. Finally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can significantly alter global crude oil supplies by increasing or cutting production.
WTI crude is a blend of oils extracted from U.S. oilfields in Texas, North Dakota and Louisiana and is delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma.
WTI oil has an American Petroleum Institute gravity of 39.6 degrees, considered “light.” WTI also has a sulfur content of just 0.24%, making it very “sweet.” WTI crude oil is typically the benchmark for U.S. oil prices in the trading world.
Brent crude is a sweet, light blend of oils extracted from the North Sea near Europe.
Brent crude is oil extracted from the Brent, Ekofisk, Forties and Oseberg oil fields. Brent has an API gravity of 38 degrees and a sulfur content of 0.4%, making it slightly heavier and less sweet than WTI. Brent is typically used as a benchmark for international oil markets, such as markets in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
WTI and Brent crude oil blends are both sweet, light crude oil bends used as benchmarks in financial markets. However, there are five key differences between WTI and Brent:
The difference between the spot price of Brent crude and WTI crude is called the Brent/WTI spread.
The Brent/WTI spread has historically ranged between $4/bbl and $8/bbl, but it can expand or contract based on factors related to U.S. and international supply and demand conditions. For example, the Brent/WTI spread hit nearly $14/bbl in April 2011 when protests sparked market fears of significant oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
One of the most popular ways investors speculate on crude oil and other commodity prices is by trading futures contracts. Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a standardized amount of an asset at a specific price on a particular future date.
The most popular WTI crude oil futures contracts are traded on the NYMEX. Each CL contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil, and the contracts trade Sunday to Friday from 6 p.m. to 5 p.m. U.S. ET.
The most popular Brent Crude Oil futures contracts are traded on the ICE under the symbol B, but investors can also trade the contracts on the CME Globex trading platform under the symbol BZ. Trading hours for Brent futures on CME are the same as WTI futures: Sunday to Friday from 6 p.m. to 5 p.m. U.S. ET. But Brent futures on ICE trade from 8 p.m. to 6 p.m. U.S. ET on ICE business days.
Popular oil stocks include global oil majors like Exxon Mobil (XOM), oil and gas exploration and production companies like ConocoPhillips (COP), and oil and gas midstream pipeline companies like Enbridge (ENB).
BAHAWALPUR, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News – 2nd Apr, 2024) The price of high-quality wheat was sold out at Rs 3,725 per mound in Ghalla Mandi (Grain Market) of Yazman tehsil of Bahawalpur district.
On Tuesday that fresh yield of wheat was sold at Rs 3,200 per mound in Bahawalpur, however, the price of high-quality wheat had surged to Rs 3,725 per mound in Ghalla Mandi (Grain Market) in Yazman tehsil of Bahawalpur.
The fresh yield of wheat is reaching Ghalla Mandi Yazman from nearby areas, especially from wheat fields of Cholistan.
However, average quality wheat was sold out at Rs 3,200 per mound in Bahawalpur.
Meanwhile, mustard which was sowed at large scale in Cholistan areas was sold out at Rs 6,300 to 6,700 per mound in Ghalla Mandi Yazman.
Desi Shakkar (Brown Sugar) was sold at Rs 5,300 to 6,000 while Gurr (Jaggery) at Rs 4,500 to 6,700 per 40 kilograms.
The Taneco refinery of Russian company Tatneft in Tatarstan, an industrialized region southeast of Moscow, was attacked by Ukrainian drones in the latest such attack from Ukraine on Russian refining infrastructure.
The refinery has a capacity to process 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude. Its primary refining unit, with a capacity to process about 155,000 bpd, was hit in Tuesday’s attack, according to pictures seen by Reuters.
The unit caught fire, which was swiftly extinguished, Russian media report.
They also quote Ramil Mullin, the mayor of the city of Nizhnekamsk, where the refinery is located, as saying that there have been no injured people in the attack.
“There are no injuries or serious damage,” Mullin wrote on Telegram.
“The technological process of the enterprise has not been disrupted,” the mayor added.
A source with the Ukrainian intelligence in Kyiv told Reuters that Ukraine hit a major Russian oil facility in Tatarstan to reduce Russian oil revenues.
Ukraine has stepped up attacks on oil refineries in Russia in recent weeks, which have reduced Russian refining capacity, and which, reportedly, have the White House concerned about rising international prices.
The United States has repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries due to Washington’s assessment that the strikes could lead to Russian retaliation and push up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported last month, citing sources familiar with the exchange.
According to Reuters estimates, the amount of Russian oil refining capacity that has been taken offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes is 14% of Russia’s total refining capacity.
Calculations show that 900,000 bpd of refining capacity have been taken offline by drone strikes, Reuters reported last week.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
The dollar continued to rise, reaching its highest level in more than four months, hitting as high as 105.07 on Monday, its highest level since November 15, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose. The U.S. economic data is relatively stronger than that of other developed economies, and after…
On Monday, copper prices surged following the expansion in China’s manufacturing activity for the first time in six months. In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) climbed to 50.8 from February’s 49.1, indicating growth in the world’s second-largest economy, according to experts.
On the production front, Hindustan Copper has shown notable progress. During the nine months ending December 2023, mine production of copper ore increased by approximately 21%, while metal-in-concentrate production saw a 5% rise compared to the same period last year.
Copper demand in India is poised to grow in sync with the nation’s economic expansion. Increased demand from the power sector, driven by the government’s focus on renewable energy, along with rising consumer demand for durable goods, will boost the need for copper.
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