At this stage, a flurry of amendment filings could refuel bets on the SEC approving the first batch of ETH-spot ETFs, with final deadlines in May 2024.

ETH declined by 2.44% to $3,500 on Wednesday (March 27). Significantly, ETH has fallen 14.5% from the March 12 high of $4,091. In contrast, BTC was down 5.8% from the March 14 ATH high of $73,808. The diverging pattern likely stems from sentiment toward the BTC halving event, the BTC-spot ETF market, and the chances of an ETH-spot ETF market.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A breakout above the Wednesday (March 27) high of $71,821 could signal a potential move to the March 14 ATH of $73,808. A break above the ATH would bring the $75,000 handle into play.

On Thursday, BTC-spot ETF market flow data and SEC-related activity need consideration.

Conversely, a break below the $69,000 support level could give the bears a run at the $64,000 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 57.91, suggests a BTC move to the ATH of $73,808 before entering overbought territory.

Given the holiday, we should see market conditions take on a quieter look and feel to end the week tomorrow. US markets will be open though, so it isn’t a complete shutdown. During which, we will get the PCE price index and also an appearance by Fed chair Powell here. But more importantly, Japanese markets will also be open and that might be the big one to watch.

“A quick knock out punch would have been nice, but at the end of the day, the wheels of justice move slowly, eventually siding with the good guys. The CB Judge gave the SEC the benefit of doubt at this early stage – as she must. This is far from over.”

A partial ruling that the cryptocurrencies referenced in the case are not securities would have been a positive outcome for the broader crypto market.

It was a bad first half of the week for XRP and the broader crypto market. On Tuesday, the SEC released a redacted version of its remedy-related opening brief in the SEC vs. Ripple case. Significantly, the SEC is pursuing a $2 billion penalty for Ripple selling unregistered XRP to institutional investors.

SEC vs. Coinbase: The Background

In June 2023, the SEC charged Coinbase for allegedly operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency. Additionally, the SEC charged Coinbase for the unregistered offering and selling of securities in connection with its staking-as-a-service program.

Coinbase filed the Motion to Dismiss in August 2023, arguing the SEC lacked the statutory authority to regulate US crypto exchanges.

Coinbase shares ended the Wednesday session down 3.79% to $256.70.

XRP Price Action

In notable crypto market activity, it was revealed by Whale Alert that a substantial volume of Shiba Inu tokens, totaling two trillion SHIB, was transferred from the KuCoin exchange to an unknown wallet. This transfer, valued at over $62 million, occurred recently and has garnered attention within the meme-inspired cryptocurrency community.

According to reports from Arkham Intelligence, an on-chain explorer, the recipient of this substantial amount of SHIB tokens appears to be KuCoin itself. Further analysis indicates that the exchange’s address also held tokens worth approximately $390 million, with Shiba Inu being the biggest asset within this portfolio after a recent transfer occurred.

And another one

What is important is that the timing of this transfer coincides with the news about legal challenges faced by KuCoin and its founders. Recent reports have outlined felony charges brought against the exchange and key individuals associated with it, citing violations related to the Bank Secrecy Act and unlicensed money transmission from DoJ and CFTC.

Following these allegations, the exchange experienced a significant outflow of funds, estimated to be around $1.2 billion. However, it appears that the transfer of two trillion SHIB tokens was an internal operation conducted by the exchange itself, rather than a result of user-initiated actions.

This development once again underscores the complexities surrounding regulatory compliance within the cryptocurrency industry. As authorities intensify efforts to enforce regulatory standards, the crypto community awaits further updates regarding recent legal proceedings and their potential impact on KuCoin, Shiba Inu and the market in general.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller spoke earlier.

Headlines are focused on his reasons for delaying cuts.

Reuters, for example:

• Fed’s Waller still sees ‘no rush’ to cut rates amid sticky inflation data

Bloomberg:

• Fed’s Waller Says No Rush to Cut Interest Rates

CNBC:

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller says no rush to cut interest rates

And, I already posted on another headline:

Comments from Waller’s speech and Q&A are here:

In one of those you’ll see references to similar from Bostic and Kashkari. Waller is not a lone voice here.

Kashkari

And markets are beginning to be swayed:

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Folks, don’t get caught with an outdated view of Fed rate cuts. Its looking more and more like the bank will delay rate its first rate cut. FOMC members are flicking the switch to ‘wait’ right in front of our eyes.

Yes, there are still two more CPI readings to come from the US before June. Indeed we’ll get more info on Friday with the PCE report (I’ll have more on this to come later today, it’s a hugely important data point, and markets will be closed when it hits!). So, if inflation dribbles lower again (I don’t think it will) then maybe June is still a prospect, but from what I am seeing and hearing the first cut will be later and there won’t be three this year.