“Re Eth ETF approval, we are holding the line at 25% odds altho tbh it is a very pessimistic 25%. The lack of engagement seems to be purposeful vs procrastination. No positive signs/intel anywhere you look. Personally hope they do approve it but it just ain’t looking good.”

The first approval window for ETH-spot ETFs is in May.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A BTC breakout from the Tuesday (March 26) morning high of $70,228 could give the bulls a run at the March 14 ATH of $73,808. A return to the ATH would bring the $75,000 handle into play.

On Tuesday, SEC-related chatter and BTC-spot ETF market flow data need investor attention.

Conversely, a break below the $69,000 support level could signal a drop to the $64,000 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 59.46, suggests a BTC move to the ATH $73,808 before entering overbought territory.

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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse responded to the Alderoty posts, saying,

“Gensler’s SEC has repeatedly acted outside the law – not going unnoticed by Judges admonishing the agency for a “gross abuse of the power entrusted to it by Congress” (DEBT Box case) and for acting without “faithful allegiance to the law” (Ripple case). Let’s not also forget Gensler’s lack of attention to SBFraud.”

Notably, XRP gave up more significant gains as investors reacted to the news. However, US case law establishes precedent and suggests a significantly lower penalty, with one caveat… If Ripple continued to breach Section 5 of the 1933 Securities Act after the complaint, the penalty could become punitive.

US Case Law and Post-Complaint Activity

On Monday, Brad Garlinghouse highlighted a significant point about the case and the SEC push for $2 billion, saying,

“The SEC plans to ask the Judge for $2B in a case that involved no allegations (let alone findings) of fraud or recklessness. There is absolutely no precedent for this. We will continue to expose the SEC for what they are when we respond to this.”

Ripple could cite case law to address the $2 billion claim. In SEC v Govil, the 2d Circuit court held that the SEC may not request a crippling disgorgement award without proving that investors suffered actual financial harm.

Other case law that may assist Ripple in bringing down the penalty to a reasonable amount include,

• Liu v SEC: A penalty must not exceed the wrongdoer’s net profits and must go to the victims.
• Morrison v NAB: The Supreme Court ruled that the SEC only has jurisdiction over US-based sales.

Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton shared the respective case laws in November, predicting a sub-$150 million penalty.

While Ripple will likely cite case law to argue for a lower penalty, post-complaint activity is relevant. The SEC may pursue a punitive penalty if it can show that Ripple continued breaching the Securities Act after the complaint. In a February court order, Judge Sarah Netburn stated,

“The SEC credibly argues that the District Judge may consider post-complaint conduct when determining whether an injunction is necessary and just.”

Judge Netburn added,

“Courts have no hesitation in concluding that, in calculating the size of a penalty necessary to deter misconduct, the extent of a defendant’s wealth is a relevant consideration.”

The SEC must file a redacted version of the remedy-related opening brief by March 26. Ripple must file its opposition brief by April 22 and a redacted version by April 24.

XRP Price Action

Wladimir van der Laan is considering returning to Bitcoin development in response to the COPA court win against CSW, according to his recent blog post.  

He was seemingly astonished by the judge’s declaration that Craig Wright (CSW) is not the author of the Bitcoin White Paper, did not operate under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, did not create the Bitcoin System, and is not the author of the initial versions of the Bitcoin software.

Van der Laan pointed to the fact that after years of gaslighting and harassment, the legal system’s decision was unexpected but welcomed.

He labeled Wright as a fraud and a terrible person who used his fraud to harm others intentionally.

Van der Laan hinted at potentially becoming more active in Bitcoin development now that this legal battle is over. However, he made no promises due to the difficulties he faced in recent years.

“Now that this is over, I might become more active in bitcoin development again. No promises though. The last few years have been difficult for me, for this reason and others. But it absolutely helps to have this out of the way,” he wrote.

He stressed the significance of the court ruling not only for Bitcoin but also for open-source development. The developer added that copyright trolls will ultimately lose even with their financial backing and forgery attempts.

The Dutch software developer is best known for his significant contributions to Bitcoin Core, the software that powers the Bitcoin network. He has been a key figure in the Bitcoin development community.

As reported by U.Today, a UK court ha ruled that Australian computer scientist Craig Wright is not the pseudonymous creator “Satoshi Nakamoto” behind Bitcoin, dismissing his claims after a trial initiated by the Crypto Open Patent Alliance.

UBS is not looking for the S&P 500 to end up any higher by the end of 2024.

Analysts at the bank say a ‘soft landing’ is their base case for the US economy, including a moderation of economic growth, further falls for the inflation rate, and lower interest rates.

• We expect this to create a supportive backdrop for equity markets.
• However, we think a lot of good news is already priced in at the index level.

UBS are cautious in the near term, expecting some volatility ahead as investors and traders adjust expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing.

The US equity markets were in a cautious mood before the US inflation numbers on Good Friday. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 declined by 0.27% and 0.31%, respectively. The Dow fell by 0.41%.

While the US market session will set the tone, the Asian economic calendar also needs consideration.

Consumer confidence numbers from Australia could influence retail-linked and interest rate-sensitive ASX 200-listed stocks.

An improving consumer confidence environment could fuel household spending and demand-driven inflation. In March, the RBA continued to consider uncertainty about the outlook for household spending. A boost in consumer confidence could bring an RBA rate hike back to the table.

Economists forecast the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index to decline by 1.6% to 84.6.

Beyond the numbers, investors must also consider earnings, intervention and BoJ chatter from Japan, and stimulus commentary from Beijing. Big names on the earnings calendar include PetroChina (0857), China Telecom (0728), Kerry Logistics Network (0636), and Cosco Shipping HK (0517).

On Tuesday, the ASX 200 futures down up 29 points, while the Nikkei futures were up by 40 points.

ASX 200