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GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 22.02.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The British pound has taken off against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday, breaking above the crucial ¥162.50 level. We had been bouncing around for a while, and trying to figure out whether or not we can break that area. We finally got our answer on Tuesday, and now it looks as if this market is going to do everything it can to take off to the upside. Ultimately, this is a market that is probably reacting to PMI numbers coming out of the United Kingdom, as a finally gave it an excuse to rally. While they were great, they weren’t nearly as bad as people had anticipated.

It’s also worth noting that the Bank of Japan and its yield curve control continues to hamper the growth of the Japanese yen. After all, keeping the 10 year JGB down to 50 basis points will be an issue, and something that will cause a lot of pressure to be found against the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan will have to print currency to buy those bonds. In other words, the market is simply flooded with Japanese yen at the moment, and it appears that the Bank of England is likely to remain rather hawkish in the meantime, as inflation and employment are both more resilient in the United Kingdom than originally thought.

When you look at the structural set up, we had been bouncing around and forming a bit of a bottoming pattern, and now it looks like we finally are ready to take advantage of it. It’s very likely that this market could go looking to the ¥165 level above, which is the next major barrier. We’d seen quite a bit of selling pressure in that area, so I think it does make certain amount of sense that we would try to see whether or not it holds on the way back up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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Hello traders. Welcome to this technical blog post where we will delve into the (EURJPY)  currency pair. By the end of this post, you should have a clearer understanding of the path EURJPY Elliott wave analysis is following and how you can participate in the upcoming significant movement on this pair. So, please join me on this journey.

If you’ve been keeping up with us on any of our social media platforms or reading our blog posts, you’ve likely come across our bullish outlook for Yen pairs, as illustrated in our posts, charts, or videos. We cover a total of 78 instruments, including 7 Yen pairs, among which EURJPY is included.

EURJPY Elliott Wave Analysis – 25th April Weekly Chart Update

Above is the weekly chart we shared with members on 04.25.2024, illustrating a long-term bullish sequence on EURJPY. The chart depicts a super cycle degree impulse wave pattern that initiated in June 2016, following the conclusion of the grand super cycle degree wave ((II)). Consequently, we find ourselves in wave ((III)) of the super cycle degree, with the current position being within wave (III) of the super cycle degree. Looking further, we’re currently in wave III of (III) of ((III)). Based on this analysis, the long-term trend strongly favors the upside.

EURJPY Elliott Wave Analysis – 25th April Daily Chart Update

Now, let’s examine the EURJPY daily chart as of the close of the trading day on 04.25.2024. The  chart above illustrates the sub-waves of wave III. Wave II of (III) concluded at the low in August 2022, and we’re now in III of (III). Additionally, wave III is in its 5th wave – wave ((5)) of III. However, wave ((5)) may have considerable room to ascend before completion, currently progressing in wave (1) of ((5)), which commenced in December 2023. Therefore, throughout 2024 thus far, we’ve maintained a bullish stance on EURJPY. Within wave (1) of ((5)), we’ve been scouting for opportunities to buy pullbacks in 3, 7, or 11 swings, such as the following setup shared with members on 04.13.2024

EURJPY Elliott Wave Analysis – 13th April H4 Update

On 04.13.2024, we shared the H4 chart above with group 1 members. We expected wave 4 of (1) to end between 162.397-160.685 before starting an upward move to finish wave 5 of (1) in a diagonal pattern. As predicted, the price action matched our expectations. The rally we anticipated began right at the upper limit of the extreme zone, hitting 162.24 precisely.

EURJPY Elliott Wave Analysis – 26th April H4 Update

The subsequent H4 chart above, shared with members on 04.25.2024, reveals EURJPY’s advancement from 162.24 with an impulse. Though the H4 wave count has been adjusted to align with current price action, the outcome remains consistent to the upside. Presently, price is in wave (v) of ((iii)) of 3 of (1). With the long-term, medium-term, and short-term bullish sequences remaining intact, there is still considerable upside potential. Moving forward, our strategy remains unchanged. While we disregard selling, we will continue to seek LONG opportunities in pullbacks that conclude within the extreme zone.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/eurjpy-elliott-wave-analysis-ride-bullish-wave/

• EUR/USD navigates an inconclusive range near 1.0780.
• The Dollar picks up a mild pace ahead of data, Fedspeak.
• Investors continue to assess the policy divergence ahead of US CPI.

EUR/USD struggles to regain impetus after Thursday’s marked advance, while a test of the key resistance area around 1.080 still remains elusive. In the meantime, spot is expected to maintain a cautious trade ahead of the key publication of the flash Michigan Consumer Sentiment for the month of May and speeches by Fed’s Bowman, Barr and Goolsbee.

Around the Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented on Thursday on the persisting policy restrictiveness, noting the potential need for additional time to bring inflation down to the Fed’s target level. Earlier on Friday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic hinted at a possible economic slowdown, although the timing for rate cuts remains uncertain.

Still around the Fed, FOMC Governor Michelle Bowman, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and FOMC Governor Michael Barr are all due to speak.

Meanwhile, the narrative surrounding the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of its G10 peers continues to dominate the macro scenario in the FX universe.

On this, the FedWatch Tool tracked by CME Group sees the probability of a Fed’s rate reduction in September nearly 70%.

EUR/USD technical outlook

On the upside, EUR/USD is likely to face first resistance at the May high of 1.0812 (May 3), which comes before the intermediate 100-day SMA of 1.0829 and the April top of 1.0885 (April 9). North of here is the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8), which precedes the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11), all before the psychological threshold of 1.1000.

Looking south, a break of the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16) might mean a return to the November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1). Once this zone is cleared, spot may test the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023), which is ahead of the 2023 low of 1.0448 (October 3) and the round level of 1.0400.

 

GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 20.09.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The British pound has bounced from the 50-Day EMA during the trading session on Tuesday, as it looks like we are continuing to try to figure out where to go next. Ultimately, the Bank of Japan has an interest rate meeting on Friday that a lot of people will be paying attention to, so therefore it’s worth noting that this pair may be volatile. Furthermore, we have to ask questions about risk appetite and where that’s going, as the markets are trying to figure out what to do about interest rate decisions, and of course inflation itself.

All things being equal, this is probably more about the Japanese yen than anything else, so I don’t necessarily pay too much attention to Britain in this equation, at least not this week. If the Bank of Japan can somehow scare the market back down, then it’s possible that the Japanese yen could start to strengthen. However, I’m not holding my breath for this and I recognize that the markets will continue to look at the interest rate differential overall, as it is wide enough to drive a tractor at the moment.

Japan has a major issue, because it has massive amounts of debt that has to deal with, and therefore interest rates are particularly brutal on the Japanese. With that being said, I’m very cautious about getting excited about owning the yen, as I think that this is a longer-term structural problem that Japan has to deal with. In other words, all of that massive debt that the Japanese have taken out is going to continue to cause major issues.

That being said, I think that the ¥185 level above is crucial to pay attention to, and therefore if we can break above that level I think we probably have a situation where the market could really take off. If we break down below the 50-Day EMA, then we could be looking at a move down to the ¥180 level underneath which is a major support level on longer-term charts as well. In general, I anticipate the next couple of days may be noisy, but we may have more clarity after the Friday Bank of Japan press conference.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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USD/JPY Forecast Video for 01.05.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the course of the week, but then turned around to break above the ¥135 level. By doing so, it looks as if the market is trying to get to the ¥137.50 level, which was a major resistance barrier. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see buyers on dips, more or less based on shorter-term charts. The Japanese on Friday morning in Asia reiterated their desire to keep yield curve control going, at least for the time being, this had the Japanese yen sell off quite drastically.

It’s also worth noting that the Friday session smashed through the top of a shooting star from the previous week, so now it looks like the buyers have completely overrun everything. However, that doesn’t mean that we go straight up in the air immediately, but once we break above the ¥137.50 level, I suspect this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” type of market, we go much higher to go looking toward the ¥150 level again.

As far as selling is concerned, I don’t have any interest in doing so, at least not until we break back down below the ¥130 level, but that looks to be very unlikely to happen anytime soon. Ultimately, this is a market that I think just formed a massive double bottom, and of course breaking above that ¥137.50 level is a confirmation of that potential signal. Either way, I would anticipate a lot of noisy behavior, but I still think that there’s a lot of upward momentum given enough time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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• The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Thursday against the Japanese yen but has since turned around despite the fact that there are members at the Bank of England that have voted to cut rates.
• Ultimately, there were to members on the Monetary Policy Committee that voted for cutting rates.
• This would be the first signs of the Bank of England think about cutting rates, but ultimately the interest rate differential between the United Kingdom and Japan is massive, and therefore I think you get a situation where traders continue to hang on to this pair.

• 

The technical analysis for the GBP/JPY pair is fairly straightforward in the sense that we have been in a massive uptrend for months, and of course we have seen the 50-Day EMA act as a trend line quite perfectly since the beginning of the year. In other words, every time we pull back, I’ll be looking to get into this pair is closer the 50-Day EMA is possible. This of course assumes that we are going to pull back, and quite frankly the only reason we did pull back to begin with from the recent swing high as that the Bank of Japan got involved. Regardless though, central bank intervention rarely sticks for the long term, and it certainly doesn’t look like it’s going to here. Remember, the Bank of Japan cannot raise rates too much, or it will absolutely destroy the Japanese economy.

Underneath, I believe that the trend is defined by the ¥190 level, and as long as we can stay above there the trend is very much intact. This does not mean that we go straight up in the air or that it’s easy to get to the ¥200 level, but I think ultimately that’s the target. I will be looking to buy every dip as a potential value plays, as it offers “cheap British pounds” when it comes to the measurement against the feckless Japanese currency. I have no interest whatsoever in trying to short this pair, or anything else denominated in Japanese yen.

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GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 18.09.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The British pound has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during the course of the week, and therefore I think we’ve got a scenario where I think eventually, we will find buyers. The ¥180 level underneath is a significant support level from what I can tell, and therefore I would be surprised to see the market breakdown below there. In fact, I think any move toward that area more likely than not will invite plenty of value hunting.

On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the ¥185 level on a weekly close, that would be a sign that we are ready to go much higher. I think in the meantime we are more likely than not going to continue to consolidate overall, so therefore this is more of a “buy on the dips” type of market, but perhaps from the shorter time frames instead of a weekly chart.

All things being equal, this is a situation where the market has been very noisy and is currently trying to work off some of the excess energy from the move higher. Markets do not go straight up in the air forever; therefore, I think the choppiness that we are seeing now is simply the normal phenomenon that you see from time to time in the markets. That being said, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to sell this market, because I do not believe that the Bank of Japan is ready to change its monetary policy.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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Most Read: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD – Technical Analysis and Price Outlook

The U.S. dollar asserted its strength on Friday, riding on higher U.S. Treasury yields in anticipation of next week’s highly awaited U.S. consumer price index data. Investors are closely watching the CPI figures, as they could guide the Fed’s next step in terms of monetary policy. That said, a hot CPI report could spark a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, further boosting the greenback. Conversely, softer-than-anticipated numbers could dampen the dollar’s strength by rekindling hopes for early rate cuts.

Putting fundamentals aside now, the next section of this article will focus on analyzing the technical outlook for three U.S. dollar pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Here we will take an in-depth look at important price thresholds that can serve as support or resistance in the coming days. These levels can not only provide valuable information for risk management, but also play a crucial role in strategic decision making when establishing positions in the currency market.

Want to know where EUR/USD is headed over the coming months? Explore all the insights available in our second-quarter forecast. Request your complimentary guide today!

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EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD declined on Friday following an unsuccessful attempt to surpass its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 1.0790, a robust technical barrier, causing the exchange rate to dip towards 1.0750. If the pullback gathers traction in the coming days, support awaits at 1.0725, followed by 1.0695. Further downside movement could lead to a retreat towards 1.0645.

In the scenario of a bullish reversal, the first hurdle on the upward journey emerges at 1.0790. Breaching this ceiling might pose a challenge, yet upon a successful breakout, the pair could potentially rally towards trendline resistance at 1.0810. Upside progress beyond this region could open the door to move towards a key Fibonacci level at 1.0865.

EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART

EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView

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USD/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/JPY rose on Friday, tentatively approaching the 156.00 mark. If gains continue in the coming trading sessions, resistance looms at 158.00, followed by 160.00. Traders need to approach any upward movement towards these levels cautiously, refraining from blinding riding with momentum, given the risk of Tokyo intervening in the FX space to prop up the yen, which could quickly send the pair tumbling.

Conversely, if sellers return and prices start heading lower, the first support to monitor materializes at 154.65, followed by 153.15. Additional losses below this point may boost bearish impetus, creating the perfect environment for a drop towards trendline support and the 50-day simple moving located slightly above the 152.00 handle.

USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART

USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView

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Change in	Longs	Shorts	OI
Daily	-3%	4%	0%
Weekly	17%	3%	11%

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GBP/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GBP/USD dipped slightly on Friday but held firm above the 1.2500 mark. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; any failure to do so might precipitate a decline toward 1.2430. Although prices could stabilize around this region before a potential rebound, a breakdown could pave the way for a descent toward April’s low at 1.2300.

On the other hand, if buyers mount a comeback and propel prices above the 200-day SMA, confluence resistance spans from 1.2600 to 1.2630, an area that marks the convergence of the 50-day simple moving average with two significant trendlines. Taking out this barrier could inject optimism into the market, fueling further gains for the pound and potentially leading to a move towards 1.2720.

GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART

GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView