Weekend:

USD/JPY
traded a little higher early in the session. We had machine order
data from Japan that put a very minor wobble into expectations of a
Bank of Japan tightening in policy tomorrow, along with the
announcement of an unscheduled JGB buying operation to take place on
Tuesday through Thursday. After hitting a high just over 149.30 USD/JPY
subsequently has dribbled back to around 149.00 to be barely changed
on the session. Expectations
of a Bank of Japan pivot away from negative rates and yield curve
control continued to build. In the points above, for example, you’ll
find Nomura calling the BOJ tightening a ‘done deal’ and Goldman
Sachs shifting their expectation for the pivot to tomorrow from
previously forecasting an April move.

Despite
iron ore hitting its lowest level since May 2023, under $100, AUD/USD
gained a few tics higher. Its managed to sustain the small positive
on the session, helped along by data from China today for key
indicators from China; business investment, retail sales, industrial
production and unemployment showing what some are referring to as
continued ‘green shoots’ for the economy. Business
investment, retail sales, and
industrial
production
all
beat expectations. Unemployment, however, rose.

Oil
opened with a small gap to the downside but that has closed. As a
side note, Morgan Stanley raised their Q3 Brent crude forecast to $90
/ barrel, from $80.

In
geopolitics we had another missile test firing from North Korea,
along with prolonged comments from Putin, who won his sham election
for another six year term. In his remarks Putin warned that a
full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO is possible if Western
troops enter the fighting:

• ‘Anything
  is possible in today’s world. It is clear to everyone that this would
  be one step from a full-scale world war three’

Essentially, strategic investors could interpret is as major bullish signal when funding rate declines during a price rally, for a number of reasons.

Firstly, dropping funding rates may reflect improving market efficiency or decreasing market volatility. In such cases, traders may perceive the market as more stable and less risky, leading to increased buying interest and bullish sentiment.

Secondly, this reduction in the cost of leverage can incentivize more traders to enter the market or increase their position sizes, leading to increased buying pressure and more upward price movement. It could also signal to new entrants that despite 55% price gains in the past week, Avalanche market is far from overheated.

If this scenario plays out as predicted, AVAX price could surge further toward $70 in the week ahead.

AVAX Price Prediction: $75 Could be the Next Target

Drawing inferences from the 89% decline in Avalanche funding rate amid a 55% rally, Avalanche (AVAX) price looks well-positioned for enter another leg-up toward $75 in the week ahead.

However, in the short-term, the bulls could face major initial resistance at the $65 territory. A decisive breakout above that level could trigger a major rally towards $75.

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There is a new meme coin sensation in the ecosystem dubbed BOOK OF MEME (BOME). Over the past 24 hours, the meme coin has recorded a jump of 300%, placing its price at $0.01751. BOME has showcased intense grit over the past week as it moved from a low of $0.000858 about two days ago to a high of $0.01826 in early trading hours.

BOME and competitors

BOME’s rally is nothing new in the nascent meme coin ecosystem. With its launch this past week, the parabolic growth trend recorded with PEPE and BONK’s emergence remains visible in BOME, underscoring a similar trend for highly publicized meme coins.

At the moment, BOME’s volatility is positive with its trading volume up 180% to $2.71 billion, making it the 13th most traded cryptocurrency in the market today. This intense volume that has surpassed the duo of PEPE and BONK in the past two days has pushed BOME’s market capitalization to $922.44 million.

With the current growth momentum, BOME is closing in on the duo of PEPE and BONK in terms of market capitalization. While PEPE’s market cap comes in at $3,483,981,703, that of BONK is pegged at $1,929,425,855, two valuations BOME may surpass if it continues on this similar trajectory.

Stability post-hype

BOME is at a phase where the hype is superseding all fundamentals, and the phase is likely to fade off, as seen historically. From PEPE to Shiba Inu (SHIB) and BONK, meme coins are known to experience prolonged periods of cool-off, a trend that might also be recorded with BOME.

The emergence of BOME comes at a time when the general market is experiencing a major uplift with the influence of spot Bitcoin ETF. With tokens like SHIB surviving the wrath of the crypto winter, BOME might need to certify itself with positive use cases to match up with established projects in the industry.

Nomura says that a Bank of Japan exit from its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and yield curve control (YCC) tomorrow is “basically a done deal”.

Adding that the only uncertainty is whether the central bank keeps its
commitment to expanding the monetary base:

• “A lot of people expect that to be dropped, myself
  included”
• “If they keep it, it will be a dovish
  surprise.”

Also, on JGB yields falling, comments from Mizuho Securities:

• “It’s kind of buy the fact,” said Shoki Omori, chief Japan
  desk strategist at Mizuho Securities. “All the information is
  basically out, so people are no longer scared about what the BOJ
  will do tomorrow.”
  While the 10-year yield may jump above 0.8% initially
  following the BOJ policy decision, demand for bonds from life
  insurers and other long-term investors into Japan’s fiscal
  year-end this month could push it as low as 0.7% ultimately,
  Omori said.

Info via Reuters report.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will hand down the board’s decision next Tuesday sometime after 0230 GMT.

The price indeed reached the lower boundary of the ascending channel, within which a diagonal triangle formation is presumed to be taking place. This decline is viewed as corrective wave iv, taking the form of a flat pattern. An attempt to break out beyond the channel proved unsuccessful, resulting in a minor rise followed by a pullback.

Presumably, this marks the beginning of the formation of the final wave v within the mentioned diagonal triangle. A level is indicated on the chart, the breakout of which may serve as a signal to initiate buy positions.

Investment idea: Buy at 1.0900, Stop Loss at 1.0875, Take Profit at 1.1000.

Origin: FreshForex

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The direct link between the OIG investigation and the SEC v Ripple case influences SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sale ruling. The SEC may want to avoid exposing any adverse findings from the OIG investigation and scrutiny of the Hinman speech-related documents.

The OIG could release findings from the investigation at any time.

Empower Oversight Intensifies Scrutiny of the SEC

On March 14, Empower Oversight sent a letter to FOIA Officer Raymond McInerney, requesting records regarding possible ethical violations. The letter also raised concerns about former SEC Chair Jay Clayton, stating,

“Additionally, there are potential concerns regarding former SEC Chair Jay Clayton. During his tenor as Chairman, Mr. Clayton publicly stated that Bitcoin is not a security and affirmed Mr. Hinman’s statement that Ether is not a security.”

BTC and ETH saw price spikes in response to the Clayton comments. The SEC filed charges against Ripple Labs on Chair Clayton’s last day at the SEC.

Empower Oversight stated Mr. Clayton joined crypto hedge fund One River Asset Management on leaving the SEC. One River Asset Management reportedly focused on BTC and ETH but not XRP. Former SEC Chair Clayton allegedly had involvement with crypto-related firms while serving as the SEC Chair.

In the letter to the FOIA, Empower Oversight claims,

“In 2022, Mr. Clayton was named as an adviser for Electric Capital, a crypto-focused venture capital firm that was established in 2018, while Mr. Clayton was serving as SEC Chair. Notably, Electric Capital has invested in Consensys, which is a developer of Ether.”

The documents could reveal improper influence over the actions of Hinman and Clayton and efforts of the SEC Ethics division to address possible ethical violations. Importantly, adverse findings could end SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

XRP Price Action

The cryptocurrency market is in a problematic state, with key players Ethereum and Ripple facing significant downtrends, while Solana emerges as a beacon of bullish momentum. This divergence in performance offers insights into the current market sentiment and potential future movements.

Ethereum has recently slipped below critical support levels, challenging the resilience of the bullish structure established over the preceding months. After reaching all-time highs, ETH has encountered substantial selling pressure, leading to a stark retraction in price.

Currently grappling with the $3,500 level, Ethereum’s next significant support lies around the $3,300 mark, closely aligned with the 200-day moving average. If Ethereum fails to reclaim its position above this threshold, the asset could see further losses, potentially testing the $3,000 psychological level.

Resistance for Ethereum is now forming at $3,800, where the asset must break through to reverse the prevailing bearish sentiment. The volume profile shows thinning out at higher prices, which could facilitate a more rapid recovery if buying pressure increases.

XRP’s precarious position

XRP’s situation appears even more tenuous as it teeters on the edge of what some analysts are calling a catastrophe. After enduring a series of legal battles that have left investors wary, XRP is struggling to maintain support at the $0.58 level. A breach below this could trigger a sell-off, driving prices toward the next support at $0.50. On the resistance front, XRP faces a hurdle at $0.65, where previous attempts to rally were quashed by bears.

The moving averages on XRP’s chart are converging, which could either signify consolidation before an upward move or prelude further declines if the price action remains negative. Traders are closely monitoring the $0.60 level, as a sustained closing below this could signal a bearish trend in the making.

Solana’s bullish outlier

Contrasting sharply with its counterparts, Solana stands out as the market’s bullish outlier. Amid the market correction, SOL has been charting an impressive upward trajectory. With local support established at $150, Solana’s price action suggests a strong buy-in from investors at these levels. The immediate resistance lies at $190, and a breakout above this could set SOL on a path to retest its recent highs.

Solana’s ascent is underpinned by robust on-chain metrics, indicating growing adoption and a healthy ecosystem. The price has been consistently finding higher lows, a bullish indicator in technical analysis. Furthermore, the RSI for SOL is now approaching overbought territory, signaling strong buying momentum that could sustain further price increases.

Current sentiment in nutshell

The divergence in performance among these three assets is a reflection of broader market sentiment. While Ethereum and XRP suffer from bearish pressures, Solana’s strength is indicative of the market’s appetite for risk and volatility. This sentiment is compounded by the move toward NFTs, DeFi and other blockchain applications, areas where Solana has established a competitive edge.

As Ethereum and XRP navigate turbulent waters, Solana’s relative stability could be a sign of the market’s shifting priorities. However, the interconnected nature of the cryptocurrency market means that a reversal in the fortunes of larger assets like ETH could have cascading effects on the entire ecosystem, including SOL.

Historically, when Ethereum has led a market rally, many alternative coins have followed suit. However, the decoupling of Solana’s performance from Ethereum’s suggests that the market is starting to differentiate between blockchain projects based on the amount of risk those can offer instead of fundamental value.

While Ethereum and XRP are showing signs of struggle, they also present opportunities for high-risk, high-reward strategies, should the market conditions shift favorably. Solana’s resilience and bullish momentum position it as a hedge against the volatility of its larger counterparts.