Banks Enter the Bitcoin-Spot ETF Market Fray

On Thursday, news hit the wires of two US banks offering BTC-spot ETFs to wealth management clients.

Bloomberg reported Bank of America’s (BAC) Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo (WFC) started offering BTC-spot ETFs to their clients. However, Vanguard remains on the sidelines. In January, Vanguard published a Q&A, saying crypto is more of a speculation than an investment.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A BTC return to $62,000 would give the bulls a run at the Wednesday high of $64,008. A break above the Wednesday high of $64,008 would bring the all-time high of $69,276 into play.

BTC-spot ETF market flow data needs consideration.

However, a fall through the $59,176 support level would give the bears a run at the $57,000 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 79.42, shows BTC in overbought territory. Selling pressure may intensify at the Wednesday high of $64,008.

However, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI had more weightage. In February, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 to 50.9. Economists forecast a fall to 50.6.

According to the February Survey,

• Manufacturing production rose at the most marked pace since May 2023.
• New export orders increased for the second month, with manufacturers reporting improved demand conditions.
• Firms expanded purchasing activity in response to an improving demand environment.
• Unfinished business declined in February despite manufacturers reducing headcounts.
• The rate of cost inflation slowed further, with input prices rising at the least marked pace in seven months.
• Firms reduced selling prices for the second month to win new business.

The pickup in new overseas orders could ease deflationary pressures. However, the focus will shift to Beijing. Lawmakers will meet next week to discuss economic forecasts and policy. Following a series of monetary policy moves, the markets remain hopeful of a fiscal stimulus package to bolster the Chinese economy.

Aussie Dollar Reaction to the China Private Sector PMIs

The AUD/USD reacted to the NBS PMI numbers, initially dropping to a low of $0.64982 before climbing to a post-stat high of $0.65059.

However, in response to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the Aussie dollar dipped to a low of $0.65023 before rising to a post-stat high of $0.65076.

On Friday, the Aussie dollar was up 0.13% to $0.65060.

Brad Garlinghouse, BlackRock, and XRP-Spot ETFs

In February, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse skirted around questions relating to BlackRock (BLK) and XRP-spot ETFs, saying,

“I’m not going to comment on that, and I know BlackRock has said some things publicly. We think it makes sense for the XRP community overall.”

Considering BTC price action since the January 11 launch of the Nine BTC-spot ETFs, the hint of a move toward an XRP-spot ETF market could supercharge an XRP rally.

Investors experienced a likely XRP reaction to an XRP-spot ETF filing in November. On November 13, XRP rallied to a session high of $0.7503 on fake news of BlackRock applying for an iShares XRP Trust (XRP-spot ETF).

Near-term, SEC v Ripple case-related news will remain the focal point. However, court rulings from other SEC v crypto cases may also affect SEC plans for the US digital asset space. The most high-profile case is the SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case.

Coinbase filed a Motion to Dismiss (MTD) in August, arguing the SEC lacks the statutory authority to regulate crypto exchanges. The door could also open to an XRP-spot ETF market if Judge Failla grants the Coinbase MTD.

The MTD also garnered the attention of Capitol Hill, highlighting the significance of the SEC v Coinbase case. Senator Cynthia Lummis filed an Amicus Brief in August supporting the Coinbase MTD.

Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand proposed the Responsible Financial Innovation Act in 2022. The legislation aims to foster innovation while protecting US retail investors. Significantly, the bill would give the CFTC more powers to regulate the digital asset space.

XRP Price Action

Robert Kiyosaki, prominent investor and entrepreneur, famous for his classic nonfiction book on managing personal finance “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” published a bullish tweet on Bitcoin after its recent astounding maneuver, which took BTC above the $62,000 level.

Over the period of the past 24 hours, the world’s flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin skyrocketed by more than a whopping 11%, briefly jumping above the $63,000 level.

Robert Kiyosaki praises Bitcoin vs. U.S. dollar

Financial and investment expert Kiyosaki posted a tweet to comment on the mind-blowing surge Bitcoin has staged within the last 24 hours, soaring from the $57,140 zone to the $63,650 level. A pullback followed that massive rise, taking BTC down a little and landing it on the $62,770 level, where it is exchanging hands at press time.

Earlier this week, the financial expert took to the X social media platform to let his 2.1 million followers know that he was buying Bitcoin. The big reason for this was that Kiyosaki believes the banking crisis is getting worse now, and risks are rising in the geopolitical sphere as well.

The financial guru also made a point of mentioning that central banks around the world are preparing to launch their own centralized cryptocurrencies (CBDCs) in order to spy on the population. For these reasons, the “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author tweeted, he was buying more Bitcoin and also silver coins to use them instead of “fake US dollars” as money.

Should Bitcoin crash, however, Kiyosaki stated recently, he would be happy about that and would simply acquire more of the leading digital currency. “Sale” is his favorite word about financial markets since it presents an opportunity to buy assets on the dip.

Kiyosaki recently critiqued the Federal Reserve, claiming that it has ruined the U.S. economy and made the low and middle class poorer than they were.

Here’s what’s pushing Bitcoin up

Bitcoin has been stubbornly rising recently over the growing interest from spot exchange-traded funds and the overall bullish sentiment increasing thanks to it. Spot ETFs were approved by the SEC on Jan. 11, and since then, these companies led by BlackRock and Fidelity have been scooping up 12 times the Bitcoin that miners are able to mint per day.

High risk warning:

Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

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FOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected news, blogs and other sources of economic and market information for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically hereby acknowledges clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided on an “as-is” basis as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice, and we do not purport to present the entire relevant or available public information with respect to a specific market or security. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information, or with respect to any of the content presented within its website, nor its editorial choices.

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Finance Magnates CY Limited

Meanwhile, Bloomberg journalist Matthew Boesler encountered difficulties obtaining information as inquiries were redirected among government departments, raising questions about the reliability of everything the BLS is doing.

The Federal Reserve has consistently emphasized its reliance on data to inform decisions regarding monetary policy. So, if the data is unreliable, where does that leave most who are not ” super users”?

Lathered In Relief

From a cross-asset perspective, the component in the PCE data still underscores the challenges the Fed may encounter in navigating monetary policy amid evolving inflationary conditions. Excluding energy and housing, services inflation surged by 0.6% last month compared to December. This type of inflation, often called “sticky” inflation, represents a significant challenge for the Fed and overall price dynamics. The 0.6% increase marks the most robust growth in services inflation since March of 2022, a notable period coinciding with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate liftoff.

Although the in-line core inflation readings might lather a bit of relief, especially as the event risk is now behind us, which can sometimes serve as a bullish catalyst on its own, it’s essential to acknowledge that the warmer, bordering on hot inflation data underscores the prevailing belief that navigating the final stretch of managing inflation will likely be a challenging and uneasy journey for all. However, we join the prevailing belief that the direction of travel is lower.

Forex Markets

149.20 Given How Are You Left?

If you are a dollar-yen trader like us, you should expect some volatile times leading up to the next Bank of Japan meeting as traders jump on and off the BoJ policy hamster wheel. As we suggested yesterday, if not for the constant and overly noisy PCE coverage, USDJPY would have traded closer to 149 ( 149.20 was the low post-PCE).

Still, given the noisy end-of-month rebalancing, especially with fully hedged funds needing to adjust Yen hedges after spectacular gains on Tokyo stocks this month, I would not read too much into mid-day New York price action that coincides with WMR London Fix, where month-end rebalance noise tends to crescendo

A drop below 140 USD JPY (135 is our H2 target) will also require support from the Fed to initiate rate cuts, narrowing the policy divergence with the Bank of Japan (BoJ). But currently, the recent series of robust US economic activity and inflation data at the beginning of this year challenges any bearish US dollar outlook.

High risk warning:

Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

Advisory warning:

FOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected news, blogs and other sources of economic and market information for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically hereby acknowledges clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided on an “as-is” basis as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice, and we do not purport to present the entire relevant or available public information with respect to a specific market or security. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information, or with respect to any of the content presented within its website, nor its editorial choices.

Disclaimer:

FOREXLIVE™ may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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