20-Day Line Tells a Story

The relationship to the price of natural gas and the 20-Day MA tells a story over the past few days. Notice that Monday ended above the 20-Day line and yesterday’s close was below the 20-Day line. At the time of this writing natural gas is on track to close weak, in the lower third of the day’s range and again below the 20-Day line. Since the line had shown support during the trend’s rise, successful tests of the 20-Day line as resistance continue to keep the possibility of a deeper retracement as a possibility.

Further Weakness Below 2.635

A break below Monday’s low of 2.635 is a sign of weakness, and it opens the door to a deeper retracement. However, a dip below Tuesday’s low of 2.70 will provide an earlier signal of pending weakness. On the downside, the initial target is the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.47. Also, the 50-Day MA is a little lower than the 200-Day line at 2.43.

Recovery from Shallow Retracement is Bullish

Notice that Monday’s low found support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the internal upswing. However, the larger upswing has a minimum 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full trend 2.55. It provides a potential support area that is above the 200-Day line. The fact that the recent retracement found buyers before testing support of the 38.2% Fibonacci level is a sign of strength. That is, if it follows through with additional bullish signals. Once there is a daily close above 2.95, natural gas would have cleared an important price level to indicate that the trend is indeed improving.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

𝐂𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬??The popularity of coffee as a globally traded commodity, second only to oil, underscores its economic significance. Rising urban populations with increased disposable incomes are driving demand for specialty and mass-market coffee offerings. This trend is particularly prominent in tier 1 and tier 2 cities, where a blend of affordability and quality drives consumer preferences.

Specialty coffee shops, offering exotic blends and premium experiences, are gaining traction among discerning consumers seeking unique coffee experiences. Moreover, the shift towards remote work has spurred demand for cafes offering amenities like free internet and comfortable seating, positioning them as alternatives to traditional office spaces.

𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐄𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞:

Coffee Shop Market size was valued at US$ 212.97 Bn. in 2023 and the total revenue is expected to grow at 3.5% through 2024 to 2030, reaching nearly US$ 270.95 Bn.

𝐒𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐋𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐬 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/request-sample/113030/

𝐂𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐞𝐠𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

𝐛𝐲 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞

Specialty Coffee Shop

Mass Market

The mass market section of the coffee shop industry dominates the global market by having the largest customer base for reasonably priced coffee, which is typically purchased in raw form from nearby grocery stores, cafés, and restaurants. The mass market has enormous potential because there is a sizable consumer base that can afford to pay US$ 1.50-3.50, which is a highly sought-after price range for coffee. Specialty coffee shops cater to a certain customer base and are considered high-end, offering the most unusual coffee options at a premium price point. However, the trend of specialty coffee shops is increasing as blue-sky businesses create massive chains at reasonable prices to get into the mass market.

𝐛𝐲 𝐂𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐢𝐳𝐞

Metropolitan

Urban

Rural

𝐂𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰

Coffee shops have become integral social hubs, offering more than just a caffeine fix. They serve as venues for socializing, business meetings, and remote workspaces, catering to a diverse clientele seeking quality coffee and conducive environments.

𝐑𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐃𝐅 𝐒𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐩𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭: (𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐓𝐎𝐂, 𝐋𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬 & 𝐅𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬, 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭) : https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/request-sample/113030/

𝐂𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬??

North America: Leads the global market with significant coffee shop revenues in the US, supported by a dense network of cafes and robust consumer demand. Major chains like Starbucks continue to dominate, despite challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Europe: Shows rapid growth with a burgeoning coffee culture and increasing consumer preference for specialty coffee. The region’s high import volume of green coffee underscores its evolving market dynamics and potential for further expansion.

Asia Pacific: Witnessing substantial growth, driven by emerging markets like China and India. China’s market is poised to reach 47.9 billion Yuan by 2023, reflecting increasing urbanization and coffee consumption trends.

Competitive Landscape:

Key players like Starbucks and CCD are innovating with new product offerings and expanding their global footprint. Innovations in packaging, sustainability practices, and customer experience enhancements are pivotal in shaping market dynamics and consumer preferences.

𝐂𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫𝐬

1. The Kraft Heinz Company

2. The Coca-cola company

3. JM Smucker Company

4. JAB Holding Company

5. Starbucks

6. McCafe

7. Tully’s coffee

8. Ediya Espresso

9. Gloria Jean’s coffees

10. Caribou Coffee

11. Caffe Nero

12. Doutor coffee

13. Coffee bean and Tea leaf

14. Nestle SA

𝐂𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲

Market Research Report on Coffee Shop Market capabilities an investigation approximately this marketplace and its numerous factors having an effect on the marketplace and ecosystem. This report educates stakeholders on the investment feasibility, market competition, and key players of the Coffee Shop market. The report covers the sector from a qualitative and quantitative information perspective. The report covers a competitive analysis of the Coffee Shop market. It provides a comprehensive list and includes an in-depth explanation for each requirement. Research uncovers a long list of primary and secondary sources used in Coffee Shop Market analysis, such as governmental organizations, customer feedback, journals, and whitepapers.

𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐫𝐲, 𝐕𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐭 @ : https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-coffee-shop-market/113030/

𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞:

What is Coffee Shop?

What will be the CAGR at which the Coffee Shop market will grow?

What is the growth rate of the Coffee Shop Market?

Which are the factors expected to drive the Coffee Shop market growth?

What are the different segments of the Coffee Shop Market?

What growth strategies are the players considering to increase their presence in Coffee Shop?

What are the upcoming industry applications and trends for the Coffee Shop Market?

What are the recent industry trends that can be implemented to generate additional revenue streams for the Coffee Shop Market?

Who are the leading companies and what are their portfolios in Coffee Shop Market?

What segments are covered in the Coffee Shop Market?

𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐎𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬:

Past Market Size and Competitive Landscape

Past Pricing and price curve by region

Market Size, Share, Size & Forecast by different segment

Market Dynamics – Growth Drivers, Restraints, Opportunities, and Key Trends by Region

Market Segmentation – A detailed analysis by segment with their sub-segments and Region

Competitive Landscape – Profiles of selected key players by region from a strategic perspective

Competitive landscape – Market Leaders, Market Followers, Regional player

Competitive benchmarking of key players by region

PESTLE Analysis

PORTER’s analysis

Value chain and supply chain analysis

Legal Aspects of Business by Region

Lucrative business opportunities with SWOT analysis

Recommendations

𝐀𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬:

♦ Tube Filling Machine Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/tube-filling-machines-market/148306/

♦ Global Variable Displacement Pumps Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-variable-displacement-pumps-market/25544/

♦ Grid Connected PV Systems Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/grid-connected-pv-systems-market/66884/

♦ Oil and Gas Waste Heat Recovery Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/oil-and-gas-waste-heat-recovery-market/71655/

♦ Adaptive Water Management Solution Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/adaptive-water-management-solution-market/66977/

♦ Marine Electrical Consumables Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/marine-electrical-consumables-market/71348/

♦ Global Land Incineration Plants Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/land-incineration-plants-market/12280/

♦ Global Fire Protection Valves and Fittings Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-fire-protection-valves-fittings-market/22982/

♦ Global Seed Drills Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-seed-drills-market/22765/

♦ Global Turbine Gearbox for Thermal Power Market: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-turbine-gearbox-for-thermal-power-market/77626/

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This release was published on openPR.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,301.49

• Firmer US Treasury yields provide an additional impulse to the US Dollar.
• Stock markets remain in the red, reflecting the dismal market mood.
• XAU/USD maintains the downward route and challenges the $2,300 threshold.

XAU/USD bearish momentum accelerated on Wednesday, and the bright metal trades at around $2,300.00 a troy ounce mid-American afternoon, with the US Dollar firmer against all major rivals. As reflected by stock markets, a poor market mood remains behind the Greenback’s broad strength. European indexes closed in the red, while Wall Street is also in a bearish route. The Nasdaq Composite is an exception, posting modest gains amid NVIDIA’s comeback, underpinning the tech sector since the beginning of the day.

Firmer government bond yields contributed to the XAU/USD slide. The United States (US) 10-year Treasury note currently offers 4.31%, up 7 basis points (bps) in the day, while the 2-year note yields 4.74%, up 5 bps.

Regarding the US Dollar, it also found strength in market talks, suggesting the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely deliver just a 25 bps interest rate cut before year-end, far from the roughly 100 bps trim anticipated earlier in the year.

Data-wise, US figures kept disappointing. The country released May New Home Sales, which fell a whopping 11.3% in the month. The country will release more interesting macroeconomic figures on Thursday, as the calendar includes May Durable Goods Orders, the final estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), weekly unemployment figures and the May Goods Trade Balance.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD slid for a second consecutive day, reaching an intraday low of $2,293.54 during US trading hours. From a technical point of view, the risk of a bearish extension has increased. The daily chart shows the pair is below a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA)  while slowly but steadily getting closer to a bullish 100 SMA, currently at $2,249.60. At the same time, technical indicators head firmly south within negative levels and far from signaling downward exhaustion, supporting the case of another leg south.

The case for a bearish continuation is even stronger in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has fallen below all its moving averages, while a firmly bearish 20 SMA crossed below a flat 100 SMA, usually a sign of persistent selling interest. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned south after failing to overcome its midline, maintaining a clear downward slope. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator accelerated south, now hovering around 30 with no signs of changing course.

Support levels: 2,293.50 2,279.60 2,265.60

Resistance levels: 2,316.60 2,329.50 2,337.00

XAU/USD Current price: $2,301.49

• Firmer US Treasury yields provide an additional impulse to the US Dollar.
• Stock markets remain in the red, reflecting the dismal market mood.
• XAU/USD maintains the downward route and challenges the $2,300 threshold.

XAU/USD bearish momentum accelerated on Wednesday, and the bright metal trades at around $2,300.00 a troy ounce mid-American afternoon, with the US Dollar firmer against all major rivals. As reflected by stock markets, a poor market mood remains behind the Greenback’s broad strength. European indexes closed in the red, while Wall Street is also in a bearish route. The Nasdaq Composite is an exception, posting modest gains amid NVIDIA’s comeback, underpinning the tech sector since the beginning of the day.

Firmer government bond yields contributed to the XAU/USD slide. The United States (US) 10-year Treasury note currently offers 4.31%, up 7 basis points (bps) in the day, while the 2-year note yields 4.74%, up 5 bps.

Regarding the US Dollar, it also found strength in market talks, suggesting the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely deliver just a 25 bps interest rate cut before year-end, far from the roughly 100 bps trim anticipated earlier in the year.

Data-wise, US figures kept disappointing. The country released May New Home Sales, which fell a whopping 11.3% in the month. The country will release more interesting macroeconomic figures on Thursday, as the calendar includes May Durable Goods Orders, the final estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), weekly unemployment figures and the May Goods Trade Balance.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD slid for a second consecutive day, reaching an intraday low of $2,293.54 during US trading hours. From a technical point of view, the risk of a bearish extension has increased. The daily chart shows the pair is below a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA)  while slowly but steadily getting closer to a bullish 100 SMA, currently at $2,249.60. At the same time, technical indicators head firmly south within negative levels and far from signaling downward exhaustion, supporting the case of another leg south.

The case for a bearish continuation is even stronger in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has fallen below all its moving averages, while a firmly bearish 20 SMA crossed below a flat 100 SMA, usually a sign of persistent selling interest. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned south after failing to overcome its midline, maintaining a clear downward slope. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator accelerated south, now hovering around 30 with no signs of changing course.

Support levels: 2,293.50 2,279.60 2,265.60

Resistance levels: 2,316.60 2,329.50 2,337.00

September arabica coffee (KCU24) today is down -7.10 (-3.01%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN24) is down -73 (-1.64%).

Coffee prices today are moderately lower after updated weather forecasts called for rain next week in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, easing drought concerns and fueling long liquidation in coffee futures.   Coffee prices Tuesday fell back after previously surging to 2-week highs on Monday due to concerns that drier-than-normal conditions would adversely affect Brazil’s coffee crops.  Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region last week received no rain for the third consecutive week.  Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil’s arabica crop.

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by fears that excessive dryness in Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb global production.  On May 22, coffee trader Volcafe said Vietnam’s 2024/25 robusta coffee crop may only be 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, as poor rainfall in Vietnam has caused “irreversible damage” to coffee blossoms.  Volcafe also projects a global robusta deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, a smaller deficit than the 9-million-bag deficit seen in 2023/24 but the fourth consecutive year of robusta bean deficits.

Last Thursday’s bi-annual report from the USDA was bearish for coffee prices.  The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS)projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.2% y/y to 176.235 million bags, with a +4.4% increase in arabica production to 99.855 million bags and a +3.9% increase in robusta production to 76.38 million bags.  The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will climb by +7.7% to 25.78 million bags from 23.93 million bags in 2023/24.  The USDA’s FAS projects that Brazil’s 2024/25 arabica production would climb +7.3% y/y to 48.2 mln bags due to higher yields and increased planted acreage.  The USDA’s FAS also forecasts that 2024/54 coffee production in Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, will climb +1.6% y/y to 12.4 mln bags.

The pace of the Brazilian coffee harvest has picked up, a bearish factor for coffee prices.  Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee harvest was 44% completed as of June 18, faster than 39% last year at the same time and faster than the 5-year average of 40%.

A rebound in ICE coffee inventories from historically low levels is also negative for prices.  ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories on February 21 fell to a record low of 1,958 lots, although they recovered to an 11-1/2 month high last Thursday of 5,995 lots.  Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 24-year low of 224,066 bags on November 30, but they recovered to a 16-month high Monday of 835,444 bags.

Tight robusta coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee beans, are a bullish factor.  On March 26, Vietnam’s agriculture department projected that Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year would drop by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought.  Also, the Vietnam Coffee Association said that Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee exports would drop -20% y/y to 1.336 MMT.  Late Monday, Vietnam’s Customs Department reported that Vietnam’s May coffee exports fell -47% y/y to 79,358 MT, the lowest amount for the month of May since 2009.  Also, Jan-May coffee exports fell -5.8% y/y to 817,154 MT.  USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam’s robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season.

There has recently been some bearish coffee export news.  On June 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May green coffee exports surged 90% y/y to 4 million bags.  On June 5, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global Apr coffee exports rose +16.8% y/y to 10.24 million bags, and Oct-Apr global coffee exports were up +11.1% y/y at 80.99 million bags.  Brazil’s exporter group Comexim, on February 1, raised its Brazil 2023/24 coffee export estimate to 44.9 million bags from a previous estimate of 41.5 million bags.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee beans.

This past year’s El Nino weather event has been bullish for coffee prices.  An El Nino pattern typically brings heavy rain to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting coffee crop production.  The El Nino event has brought drought to Vietnam’s coffee areas this year, according to an official from Vietnam’s Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change.

In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected on May 3 that 2023/24 global coffee production would climb +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year.  ICO also projects global 2023/24 coffee consumption will rise +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus. 
More Coffee News from Barchart

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Citi predicts that oil prices will plummet to the $60s range by 2025 as inventories build following a tight market this summer, signaling a bearish outlook despite current robust demand and higher prices.

Oil has recouped the losses from early June when the OPEC+ group’s indication that it could begin returning some supply to the market in the fourth quarter sent bearish signals across the market.

Early on Friday, the international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded above $85 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was above $82 a barrel, as signs of tightening physical markets started to emerge.

The market expects solid summer demand in the third quarter but fears that the quarterly consumption growth will start waning in the fourth quarter, pressuring oil prices downwards.

Citi is one of the most prominent bears among major banks, expecting oil to drop into the $70s range later this year and further down to the $60s range in 2025 due to solid inventory builds.

“Global inventories will be building a lot next year,” Citi’s global energy strategist Eric Lee told Yahoo Finance in an interview this week.

“We do think that there is a bit of a tight stretch [with supply] through the summer, so we do see prices staying in the low- to mid-80s for a little longer,” the strategist added.

Related: Supply Concerns and Demand Optimism Are Boosting Oil Prices

“But as we’re looking through the second half of the year into 2025, we really see markets getting a lot weightier.”

Citi also expects global oil demand growth to slow down as “Oil demand can grow at a slower and slower rate relative to GDP and in fact peak before the end of this decade,” Lee told Yahoo Finance.

Citi holds one of the most bearish near and long-term views on oil prices and demand.

Goldman Sachs, for example, said in a report this week that “Peak oil demand is still a decade away.”

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency said that global oil demand would peak before 2030. This forecast drew criticism from OPEC, whose Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said that “peak oil demand is not on the horizon,” and that IEA’s forecast “is a dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.”

Goldman’s analysts, for their part, said, “While some prominent forecasters have predicted oil demand will peak by 2030, our researchers expect oil usage will increase through 2034.”

“We think peak demand is another decade away, and more importantly, after the decade it takes to peak, it plateaus, rather than sharply declines, for another few years,” write Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Asia-Pacific Natural Resources and Clean Energy Research, and analyst Amber Cai in the team’s report.

In the near term, Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude at $86 per barrel this summer amid strong consumer demand, which will put the market into a sizeable deficit in the third quarter.

The investment bank also sees a floor of $75 per barrel under Brent due to physical demand for crude, which tends to rise amid lower prices, including in China and in the U.S. for the refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).  

Most banks expect oil prices to hold above $80 a barrel this summer and decline in the fourth quarter and early next year into the $70 range.

JP Morgan expects oil prices to average $75 a barrel next year, sliding from an expected range of $80-$90 this summer.

Commodity analysts will monitor trends in interest rates and global economic growth to use as assumptions for their forecasts later this year, but they will also closely watch OPEC+’s next move.

While the group has signaled willingness to begin unwinding part of the current supply cuts, the cartel and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia are unlikely to leave oil prices lingering in the low $70s and plunging to the $60s, as none of the alliance’s producers can balance their budgets at these relatively low prices.     

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

XAU/USD Current price: $2,319.23

• Mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials and Canadian inflation dented the market mood.
• Consumer Sentiment in the US contracted by less than anticipated in June.
• XAU/USD under pressure, bears aiming to pressure the $2,300 threshold.

Gold traded lifeless throughout the first half of Tuesday, confined to a tight range just below the $2,330 mark, further sliding after Wall Street’s opening. US indexes trade mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average heading south but the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite posting gains. The focus is on NVIDIA as the AI chipmaker finally found the strength to bounce following a three-day slump. In the absence of relevant news, the focus remained on the tech sector.

At the same time, investors are assessing inflation figures and Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. On the one hand, Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% YoY in May, higher than the 2.9% posted in April and above the 2.6% forecast. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) core CPI saw a yearly increase of 1.8%, up from the 1.6% growth previously recorded. The news spurred concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and reminded speculative interest of the risks of trimming interest rates too early.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed is not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates. Even further, Bowman expressed willingness to raise rates if inflation stalls. Finally, she added that the labor market remains tight and only saw modest progress on inflation this year. Also, Governor Lisa Cook noted that the central bank is on track for a rate cut if the economy’s performance meets her expectations, but she was unable to anticipate when. Cook was far more optimistic than Bowman about future rate cuts, limiting US Dollar strength mid-US afternoon.

Finally, Consumer sentiment in the US kept sliding in June, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 100.4 from 101.3 (revised from 102.00) in May. The reading, however, beat the 100.0 expected.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades around $2,320, and the daily chart suggests it may maintain the downward bias. The pair is finding sellers around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day while still holding above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. However, technical indicators gain bearish momentum within negative levels, in line with an extended slide, particularly on a break below $2,306.45, the immediate support level.

The bearish case is firmer in the near term. XAU/USD accelerates south below all its moving averages, which anyway remain directionless. The 20 SMA slowly grinds lower, although between the longer ones, not enough to confirm additional selling interest. Nevertheless, technical indicators head firmly south within negative levels, reflecting persistent selling interest.

Support levels: 2,306.45 2,295.20 2,279.60

Resistance levels: 2,334.10 2,346.70 2,360.30

XAU/USD Current price: $2,319.23

• Mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials and Canadian inflation dented the market mood.
• Consumer Sentiment in the US contracted by less than anticipated in June.
• XAU/USD under pressure, bears aiming to pressure the $2,300 threshold.

Gold traded lifeless throughout the first half of Tuesday, confined to a tight range just below the $2,330 mark, further sliding after Wall Street’s opening. US indexes trade mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average heading south but the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite posting gains. The focus is on NVIDIA as the AI chipmaker finally found the strength to bounce following a three-day slump. In the absence of relevant news, the focus remained on the tech sector.

At the same time, investors are assessing inflation figures and Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. On the one hand, Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% YoY in May, higher than the 2.9% posted in April and above the 2.6% forecast. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) core CPI saw a yearly increase of 1.8%, up from the 1.6% growth previously recorded. The news spurred concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and reminded speculative interest of the risks of trimming interest rates too early.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed is not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates. Even further, Bowman expressed willingness to raise rates if inflation stalls. Finally, she added that the labor market remains tight and only saw modest progress on inflation this year. Also, Governor Lisa Cook noted that the central bank is on track for a rate cut if the economy’s performance meets her expectations, but she was unable to anticipate when. Cook was far more optimistic than Bowman about future rate cuts, limiting US Dollar strength mid-US afternoon.

Finally, Consumer sentiment in the US kept sliding in June, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 100.4 from 101.3 (revised from 102.00) in May. The reading, however, beat the 100.0 expected.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades around $2,320, and the daily chart suggests it may maintain the downward bias. The pair is finding sellers around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day while still holding above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. However, technical indicators gain bearish momentum within negative levels, in line with an extended slide, particularly on a break below $2,306.45, the immediate support level.

The bearish case is firmer in the near term. XAU/USD accelerates south below all its moving averages, which anyway remain directionless. The 20 SMA slowly grinds lower, although between the longer ones, not enough to confirm additional selling interest. Nevertheless, technical indicators head firmly south within negative levels, reflecting persistent selling interest.

Support levels: 2,306.45 2,295.20 2,279.60

Resistance levels: 2,334.10 2,346.70 2,360.30

Strength Confirmed Above 2.95

Today’s price behavior reiterates the importance of natural gas getting above the most recent swing high of 2.95, also a weekly high, before buyers start to get more aggressive. Until then, resistance could be seen that takes natural gas down to again test support at this week’s low of 2.635, and possibly lower. There remains a series of lower swing highs and lower lows until the 2.95 high is breached.

Retracement Likely Complete

Nonetheless, there are reasons to believe that the 2.635 low from Monday may be the end of the retracement. It completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (2.62), and yesterday’s strong bullish reversal ended with a key reversal day (open below prior day, close above prior day). The key reversal day reflects a shift in sentiment in only one day, from the sellers being in charge to the buyers taking back control of price action. Yesterday’s swing low also set up a measured move. The measured move is reflected in a rising ABCD pattern shown on the chart.

Initial Upside Target of 3.32

The second move or CD leg of the pattern has the potential to at least match the price appreciation seen in the first move or AB leg up. Price symmetry is reflected when the two swings match. It completes an initial target at 3.32. Once symmetry is present between the swings, a potentially significant pivot level has been identified. Either price breaks out above the pivot zone, or it behaves as resistance and a pullback ensues. Also, a choppy relatively sideways pattern could develop as well around the pivot point.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,329.11

• United States inflation and FOMC meeting Minutes stand out this week.
• Upcoming elections in Europe keep investors in cautious mode.
• XAU/USD trades with a soft tone around $2,330, bearish scope well-limited.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, with XAU/USD hovering around $2,330.00. A certain caution prevails across financial markets as investors await fresh news from the macroeconomic and political sides. In the United States (US), the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and the May US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.

Other than that, investors are keeping an eye on European upcoming elections as France and the United Kingdom will soon go to the polls. Speculative interest also looks at Russia after President Vladimir Putin mentioned potential changes to the country’s nuclear policy, escalating tensions with the West.

The US Dollar posted a modest advance at the beginning of the day but turned lower with Wall Street’s opening amid an upsurge in US equities following Friday’s poor performance. Little variation around government bond yields and a scarce macroeconomic calendar help to keep XAU/USD within familiar levels.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD is technically neutral, according to the daily chart, although the bearish potential seems well-limited. The pair is currently battling a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators lack directional strength just below their midlines, reflecting the absence of speculative interest rather than suggesting bulls are about to give up.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair develops below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA flat between also directionless longer ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere just below their midlines. The bright metal traded as low as $2,316.61 on Friday, the level to pierce to expose the $2,300 threshold.

Support levels: 2,316.60 2,301.00 2,288.70

Resistance levels: 2,334.10 2,346.70 2,360.30

XAU/USD Current price: $2,329.11

• United States inflation and FOMC meeting Minutes stand out this week.
• Upcoming elections in Europe keep investors in cautious mode.
• XAU/USD trades with a soft tone around $2,330, bearish scope well-limited.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, with XAU/USD hovering around $2,330.00. A certain caution prevails across financial markets as investors await fresh news from the macroeconomic and political sides. In the United States (US), the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and the May US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.

Other than that, investors are keeping an eye on European upcoming elections as France and the United Kingdom will soon go to the polls. Speculative interest also looks at Russia after President Vladimir Putin mentioned potential changes to the country’s nuclear policy, escalating tensions with the West.

The US Dollar posted a modest advance at the beginning of the day but turned lower with Wall Street’s opening amid an upsurge in US equities following Friday’s poor performance. Little variation around government bond yields and a scarce macroeconomic calendar help to keep XAU/USD within familiar levels.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD is technically neutral, according to the daily chart, although the bearish potential seems well-limited. The pair is currently battling a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators lack directional strength just below their midlines, reflecting the absence of speculative interest rather than suggesting bulls are about to give up.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair develops below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA flat between also directionless longer ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere just below their midlines. The bright metal traded as low as $2,316.61 on Friday, the level to pierce to expose the $2,300 threshold.

Support levels: 2,316.60 2,301.00 2,288.70

Resistance levels: 2,334.10 2,346.70 2,360.30

A small position on dips makes sense because given enough time, we could see buyers push this market to the upside and break above the $3 level. But I think that happens sometime later in the year as we start to approach fall. So that’s why I use an ETF. I don’t really care about day-to-day fluctuations. Natural gas is a great market to lose money in and most retail traders find that out really quickly. Remember, it’s driven by supply and demand, transmission, the lines in America, for example, and of course, the weather patterns of the Northeast and part of the United States.

Peripherally, you can add whether or not Russian gas is being bought by Europeans who are currently at war with them peripherally via transmission through Ukraine. So, you can see how much nonsense it’s kind of baked into this market. When you say that out loud, looking at the four hour chart from a bit of a distance, you can see that we are also perhaps in the middle of a rising wedge. So maybe another shot higher and then a plunge that could put us down to about $2.33, which is a very viable price this time of year. At that point, I would probably be looking to add to my ETF position.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price licks its wounds early Monday in the aftermath of Friday’s sell-off. 
• The US Dollar holds gains amid risk-aversion and subdued US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price closes the week below 50-day SMA even after the symmetrical triangle breakout.
• The daily RSI drops back below 50 while Bear Cross remains in play. Fedspeak awaited.

Gold price is nursing losses early Monday, having witnessed a more than 1% sell-off on Friday. Gold traders now look forward to a slew of speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers due later on Monday for fresh policy cues and its impact on the US Dollar (USD).

Gold price stays vulnerable ahead of Fedspeak

Persistent US Dollar strength and a sharp upsurge in Palladium price weighed heavily on Gold price last Friday. The Greenback extended its recovery momentum alongside the US Treasury bond yields after the S&P Global preliminary US business activity jumped to a 26-month high. The Composite PMI Output Index that tracks the manufacturing and services sectors rose to the highest level since April 2022 at 54.6 this month. The final reading in May was at 54.5.

Markets’ pricing of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in September remained at about 60% after the data release, little changed from late Thursday and at the time of writing, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Renewed signs of US economic resilience gave a boost to the US Dollar at the expense of the Gold price.

Additionally, significant exchange-traded funds (ETF) flows into Palladium drove the white metal sharply higher and reduced the appeal of Gold price as an alternate investment in the precious metals group.  

Early Monday, a sense of caution prevails as the US PCE inflation week kicks in and investors still scouting for hints on the Fed’s next interest move while bracing for the outcome of the French elections on Sunday. Also, traders stay unnerved heading into the half-yearly close.

Against this backdrop, investors scurry toward the safe-haven US Dollar, keeping it afloat against its major six currency rivals and the Gold price. It remains to be seen if Gold price extends the downside in the upcoming sessions should the Fed speak send a hawkish message, pushing back against expectations of a September Fed rate cut.

Also, the persisting risk trend and the end-of-the-month flows will play a pivotal role in the Gold price action in the lead-up to Friday’s key US inflation data release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Despite a triangle breakout confirmed last Thursday, Gold price failed to extend the upside break and turned south, yielding a weekly closing below the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,342.

Such a move has revived sellers, now aiming for Gold price to close Monday below the triangle support line at $2,325. Daily closing below that level will lead to the triangle pattern failure.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved back below the 50 level, currently near 47.50, suggesting that the downside appears more compelling for Gold price.

Further, a Bear Cross validated last week, after the 21-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis, remains a cause for concern for buyers.

Gold price needs to reclaim the 50-day SMA at $2,342 to revive the previous week’s recovery momentum.

Further up, the two-week high of $2,366 will be challenged. A sustained move above that level will expose the June 7 high of $2,388.

If sellers flex their muscles then the initial demand area is seen at the $2,310 round level. The next relevant support is seen at the $2,300 threshold.

Acceptance below the latter will put the May 3 low at $2,277 back in the spotlight.

 

• Gold price licks its wounds early Monday in the aftermath of Friday’s sell-off. 
• The US Dollar holds gains amid risk-aversion and subdued US Treasury bond yields.
• Gold price closes the week below 50-day SMA even after the symmetrical triangle breakout.
• The daily RSI drops back below 50 while Bear Cross remains in play. Fedspeak awaited.

Gold price is nursing losses early Monday, having witnessed a more than 1% sell-off on Friday. Gold traders now look forward to a slew of speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers due later on Monday for fresh policy cues and its impact on the US Dollar (USD).

Gold price stays vulnerable ahead of Fedspeak

Persistent US Dollar strength and a sharp upsurge in Palladium price weighed heavily on Gold price last Friday. The Greenback extended its recovery momentum alongside the US Treasury bond yields after the S&P Global preliminary US business activity jumped to a 26-month high. The Composite PMI Output Index that tracks the manufacturing and services sectors rose to the highest level since April 2022 at 54.6 this month. The final reading in May was at 54.5.

Markets’ pricing of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in September remained at about 60% after the data release, little changed from late Thursday and at the time of writing, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Renewed signs of US economic resilience gave a boost to the US Dollar at the expense of the Gold price.

Additionally, significant exchange-traded funds (ETF) flows into Palladium drove the white metal sharply higher and reduced the appeal of Gold price as an alternate investment in the precious metals group.  

Early Monday, a sense of caution prevails as the US PCE inflation week kicks in and investors still scouting for hints on the Fed’s next interest move while bracing for the outcome of the French elections on Sunday. Also, traders stay unnerved heading into the half-yearly close.

Against this backdrop, investors scurry toward the safe-haven US Dollar, keeping it afloat against its major six currency rivals and the Gold price. It remains to be seen if Gold price extends the downside in the upcoming sessions should the Fed speak send a hawkish message, pushing back against expectations of a September Fed rate cut.

Also, the persisting risk trend and the end-of-the-month flows will play a pivotal role in the Gold price action in the lead-up to Friday’s key US inflation data release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Despite a triangle breakout confirmed last Thursday, Gold price failed to extend the upside break and turned south, yielding a weekly closing below the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,342.

Such a move has revived sellers, now aiming for Gold price to close Monday below the triangle support line at $2,325. Daily closing below that level will lead to the triangle pattern failure.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved back below the 50 level, currently near 47.50, suggesting that the downside appears more compelling for Gold price.

Further, a Bear Cross validated last week, after the 21-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis, remains a cause for concern for buyers.

Gold price needs to reclaim the 50-day SMA at $2,342 to revive the previous week’s recovery momentum.

Further up, the two-week high of $2,366 will be challenged. A sustained move above that level will expose the June 7 high of $2,388.

If sellers flex their muscles then the initial demand area is seen at the $2,310 round level. The next relevant support is seen at the $2,300 threshold.

Acceptance below the latter will put the May 3 low at $2,277 back in the spotlight.