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11 04, 2024

Argentina Taps Waste Gas To Mine Bitcoin

By |2024-04-11T18:24:24+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


Cryptocurrency companies have been increasingly looking to power mining operations in more sustainable and affordable ways, as governments worldwide crack down on energy-intensive crypto operations by introducing more regulations in the sector. We have previously seen companies across the U.S. establish mining operations on existing oil and gas sites, using waste gas from fossil fuel production activities to power mining. But this is getting more and more difficult as the government pursues a green transition and some states introduce strict regulations on digital currencies. Now, many crypto companies are looking to Argentina to set up similar operations and bolster the country’s flailing currency. 

As governments worldwide put pressure on oil and gas companies to decarbonise, many have sought innovative ways to prevent CO2 from being released into the atmosphere. This has largely been supported by the incorporation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology into operations. However, some have begun to work with cryptocurrency companies that are seeking to use waste energy from gas-flaring activities to power digital currency mining. Previously, gas released from flaring on oil sites was not captured and reused, as it was deemed to not be economically viable. Governments are increasingly calling on oil and gas companies to stop highly polluting flaring practices. However, many companies are finding an alternative solution by letting crypto companies use their waste gas


Some of the first of these operations took place in 2019, when Giga Energy Solutions signed agreements with several oil and gas producers in East Texas to use their waste energy. Giga puts shipping containers filled with thousands of Bitcoin miners on an oil well, diverting the natural gas into generators. This gas is then transformed into the electricity that is used to power the miners. This helps oil and gas companies reduce their emissions by around 63 percent compared to conventional gas flaring activities.

Now, Giga is looking to expand its crypto-mining operations into new markets. The Mendoza province in Argentina is home to the world’s second-largest shale gas reserve – Vaca Muerta, which could provide immense quantities of waste energy to be used by digital currency miners. In March, Giga announced plans to expand into Argentina following the successful rollout of operations across the U.S. and its entrance into Shanghai. It will partner with the oil and gas company Phoenix Global Resources, as well as the IT services company Exa Tech, to develop a 2 MW project on Vaca Muerta. 



This will help the oil and gas producers both reduce emissions as well as turn waste into something valuable. Brent Whitehead, the co-founder of Giga, explained “By capturing stranded natural gas to power modular data centres for energy-intensive computing, Giga is actively contributing to reducing global methane emissions.” 





Argentina has been battling an economic crisis with an inflation rate that rose above 211 percent in December, according to official data. This marked the highest inflation level since the 1990s. The country’s libertarian President Javier Milei has been hoping to avoid hyperinflation through strict austerity measures. In December, the new government devalued the peso currency to try and tackle inflation. 

As the country has faced greater financial insecurity, with a highly volatile currency, the government has increasingly embraced digital currencies in recent years. Milei is seen as a crypto-friendly President and at the end of last year, the government “ratified and confirmed” that contracts can be set in Bitcoin. Grayscale Investments stated, “Milei sees Bitcoin as a crucial tool in countering the inefficiencies and corruptions of centralised financial systems.” If Argentina is seen to welcome cryptocurrency, this could encourage other countries in the region to follow suit. 

In addition, while Bitcoin has had its ups and downs in recent years, its value has increased by 170 percent over the last six months and has touched several all-time high prices, making it very attractive. Giga has achieved revenues of over $10 million so far this quarter, according to the co-founder of the company Matt Lohstroh. Giga plans to launch small-scale operations before expanding. The company expects to eventually reduce carbon emissions by around 30,000 tonnes a year at the Vaca Muerta upstream facility, with excess power being sold to the Argentinian grid. 



However, it is not the only crypto company looking to develop operations in Argentina, which is one of the biggest methane emitters globally. There is a huge opportunity to develop crypto mining operations in Argentina, particularly under the leadership of a pro-crypto president. Giga will likely be one of many crypto companies to enter the Argentinian oil and gas market over the coming years with companies such as these offering a win-win scenario for fossil fuel companies.  

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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11 04, 2024

Surging oil prices may challenge the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight

By |2024-04-11T18:24:21+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments




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11 04, 2024

Oil prices moving higher, Brent crude above $90 per barrel

By |2024-04-11T18:24:17+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) are on the rise again, with Brent crude oil now sitting well above $90 per barrel. Multiple factors have impacted oil commodity prices, including hotter-than-expected inflation data, a boom in travel, and risks affiliated with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Market Domination Anchors Josh Lipton and Julie Hyman break down the movement in oil prices and take a look at how prices could play out going forward.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination.

Editor’s note: This article was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video Transcript

JOSH LIPTON: The price of Brent crude on the rise again here. Reaching $91 a barrel in today’s trade. So this has been interesting, Julie. Prices moving now back up to their highest level really in months. Brent is up about 4% this week, and we different sort of factors driving this– strong economy. Obviously, we were just talking to Michael about the jobs report we got today. Blockbuster OPEC production cuts. But also, of course, geopolitical conflict is also front and center as well.

JULIE HYMAN: Yeah, and it’s become more– I mean, at this point, as we know, when you have a geopolitical conflict that then goes on for a little while without any meaningful change, it doesn’t affect consistently necessarily the price of an asset, but this week, when we had speculation and reports out of Israel that it was anticipating some sort of retaliatory attack from Iran, that’s then the, you know, X factor or the latest catalyst that helped push prices higher.

We did speak to some folks this week who said there’s a lot of speculation in the oil market as well. So you have to keep that in mind. It looks like we’re setting up for the best week for WTI since February 9th in terms of the magnitude of the gain and the best for the XLE. That’s the energy ETF going back to January 26. But there was still underperformance on the part of those energy stocks versus the actual commodity. That’s something we’re going to talk about a little bit later in the show. But it is something that the, um, energy stock bulls have been pointing out here.

JOSH LIPTON: Yeah, it is a question, and we are talking to a smart strategist later about this– about at what point, Julie, it becomes more of an issue for the Fed. Like if you have Brent at $91. Is it– is it $95? Is it $100 and sort of– and staying there? So we’ll– we’ll ask some smart people later about that.

JULIE HYMAN: Well, we just talked to Michael Gambon. He said it is something to keep an eye on.



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11 04, 2024

Crude oil prices see a sharp jump; can they sustain gains? How can they impact Indian stock market sentiment?

By |2024-04-11T18:24:16+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


Crude oil prices have seen a significant rise in the last few days amid simmering tensions in West Asia following an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria.

As per media reports, Israeli warplanes bombed Iran’s embassy in Syria on Monday, April 1. Iran claimed the attack killed seven of its military advisers, including three top commanders. The attack on the Iranian embassy marks a big step up in Israel’s conflict with its adversaries in West Asia. On the following day, Iran said it would take revenge on Israel for the attack.
The fresh flare-up of tensions has raised concerns about potential disruptions in crude oil supply, as Iran is the third-largest producer of crude oil within OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).

Crude oil benchmark Brent Crude is now above the $91 per barrel mark. On Friday, Brent crude settled at $91.17 a barrel, rising over 4 per cent for the week.
Apart from geopolitical tensions, healthy economic growth of the US and signs of economic recovery in China have also boosted crude oil prices. This year so far, Brent Crude prices have jumped over 18 per cent.
India is the third-largest consumer and importer of crude oil, importing over 80 per cent of its crude oil needs. An escalation in crude oil prices can disrupt India’s fiscal calculations, damaging the economy, putting pressure on its currency, and negatively impacting foreign capital inflow.

Another important factor is that a sharp rise in crude oil prices will exacerbate persistent inflation and further undermine the likelihood of rate cuts, which are already expected to be delayed and minimal. An increase in inflation would deal a serious blow to market sentiment.
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Crude oil price outlook for short term

The majority of experts expect crude oil prices to move higher in the short term due to supply-related factors and escalating geopolitical tensions. However, crude oil prices could ease in the second half of the year after, near the US elections.

Also Read: Explained | Why are crude oil prices elevated after OPEC+ policy decision and how will it impact India?
“Short-term outlook for crude oil prices is positive until the second quarter of the year (June Q2) according to global markets.
Stable demand coupled with supply constraints from OPEC & OPEC+ is driving crude oil prices higher. However, a weakness is anticipated in the second half of the year, particularly post-June, as the US is expected to increase production aggressively in the lead-up to the elections,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP and a research analyst at LKP Securities.

Trivedi believes crude oil could rally towards the $90-$94 mark in the short term, but strong resistance is foreseen around these levels based on past price movements in August 2022 and September 2023.
Also Read: Buy or sell: BHEL to Bajaj Finserv — Sumeet Bagadia recommends three stocks to buy on Monday — April 8
According to V K, Vijayakumar Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, Brent Crude may move in the $89 – 92 range in the short run.

Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities expects crude oil prices to remain volatile to positive bias in the short term due to geopolitical tensions and good macroeconomic numbers from China.
However, he added that due to the US election, the potential upside in the crude oil prices could be limited.
Also Read: Weekend Wrap: From Vedanta to Hindustan Zinc, top market movers this week

Kaynat Chainwala, Senior Manager- Commodity Research at Kotak Securities pointed out that during the April JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) meeting, OPEC extended output cuts till June and asked for better compliance from members like Iraq and UAE pumping above their quotas, further tightening supplies in Q2. At the same time, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to ease this year.
Also Read: FY25 Outlook: Can Nifty 50 repeat the feat of FY24? 5 crucial challenges that loom
Chainwala said an escalation in geopolitical tensions has improved the risk premium. With tightening supplies and improving demand, oil prices look constructive for the short term.

Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services finds the outlook for oil positive despite Brent inching towards $90, as the global economic activity is showing signs of rebounding and is likely to be led by China and the US, where the recent economic data’s have been encouraging even as the supply side remains a concern due to geopolitical events amid falling fuel inventories in the US.
The underlying trend remains positive and Mer sees Brent oil moving towards $95-$97 and WTI oil towards $90-$92 in the short term.
However, some correction could be seen in crude oil prices since they have already gained significantly.

How can rising crude oil prices affect the Indian stock market?

For now, experts do not see crude oil prices impacting domestic market sentiment. However, they agree that if crude oil prices rise and sustain above the $90 per barrel mark, they can negatively impact the overall market sentiment.

Trivedi of LKP Securities underscored that Indian equities are currently not highly reactive to crude oil price rises, as domestic factors have a stronger influence on fund flows in the market. However, if crude oil prices surge suddenly or start to hold above $95 in WTI, it could negatively affect Indian markets, particularly companies reliant on oil.
Trivedi believes the timing of the Indian elections will keep the focus on domestic politics until around the first week of June, after which the impact of crude oil prices may become more apparent.

Vijayakumar is of the view as long as Brent crude remains in the $89-92 range, it won’t cause any serious problems for India’s macros. But if it crosses $92 and moves beyond $95 it can impact the Indian economy and the rupee will also come under pressure. This will have negative implications for the stock market, too.
As per Kalantri of Mehta Equities, rising crude oil prices may not have a significant impact on the Indian market in the near term as due to the upcoming election, the government will not pass this burden to the public. However, some sectors might be impacted like tyres, paints and some oil companies.
But, if WTI crude oil crosses and sustains above $90 then there could be an adverse impact on the Indian equity market, said Kalantri.

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11 04, 2024

North Sea Oil and Gas Firms Continue Drilling Despite Climate Goals

By |2024-04-11T18:24:15+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


All major North Sea oil countries are expected to continue drilling for oil and gas as they fail to agree on climate measures. The major oil-producing countries operating in the North Sea have all announced ambitious production goals for the coming years, despite pressure from European governments and environmentalists to reduce fossil fuel production in favour of renewable energy projects. 

A new report found that none of the major oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea have plans to stop drilling in time to achieve the 1.5oC global heating limit. The Oil Change International report says that the U.K., Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Denmark have not been able to align their oil and gas policies with their climate promises under the Paris Agreement. The report suggested that the policies in Norway and the U.K. were furthest from the Paris climate agreement as they were both “aggressively” exploring and licensing new oil and gas fields. Meanwhile, the Netherlands hopes to increase its oil and gas production. 


While Germany produces only small quantities of oil and gas in the region, the government has failed to set adequate climate policies for a green shift. Denmark came out on top, having reduced its oil production by half in the last five years. The Scandinavian country has set an end date for oil and gas production and has cancelled new state-initiated licensing rounds. However, environmentalists are calling on the Danish government to close loopholes that allow new licensing under certain circumstances to be closed by the early 2030s rather than in 2050. 

The co-author of the report, Silje Ask Lundberg, emphasised the need for governments in the region to do more to curb oil production and act on climate pledges. Lundberg stated, “Failure to address these issues not only undermines international climate goals but also jeopardises the liveability of our planet.” 



Many believe that the five North Sea countries should be leading the way when it comes to climate action, rather than contributing to the problem. These are some of the world’s richest countries and it is unjust to expect the developing world to undergo a green transition while they continue to benefit from oil and gas production. Truls Gulowsen, the head of the Norwegian branch of the environmental group Friends of the Earth, stated of Norway’s role in the North Sea, “Despite having all the tools in the world to ensure a just transition, our government’s choice is to continue to be Europe’s most aggressive oil and gas explorer. This is completely out of place, and totally unaligned with the Paris Agreement and our climate responsibility.”





The U.K. has been heavily criticised for its ongoing support of oil and gas production, as the government announced 24 new North Sea oil and gas licences in January. Licenses were given to 17 oil firms, including Shell and BP, to drill in the Central North Sea, Northern North Sea, and West of Shetland areas. Opposition MPs and environmentalists labelled the move as “grossly irresponsible” and suggested that the government was overstating the economic benefits of the North Sea and compromising the U.K.’s climate leadership. 

Graham Stuart, the minister for energy security and net zero, defended the move, stating, “If we didn’t have new oil and gas licences we would import new [liquefied natural gas] from abroad which is four times as carbon-intensive as the gas produced here. I accept it’s counterintuitive but it’s not a complex argument to see it’s the right thing to do.” He added, “New oil and licences strengthen our ability to get to net zero, they strengthen and support our climate leadership.”

However, critics suggest that although the move secure billions in oil and gas revenues, it will do little to secure the country’s energy supplies or decrease energy bills because the new licences will mostly produce oil that the U.K. typically exports to European refineries. Others accuse the government of greenwashing for suggesting that new oil and gas production could ever contribute to the country’s decarbonisation efforts. 



Meanwhile, in Norway, oil and gas companies plan to invest a total of $21.85 billion in 2024, marking an increase from $20.5 billion in 2023. This is an increase from the previous forecast of around $18 billion. This comes following several new developments and the expansion of existing projects, as well as inflation and a weak currency. Despite deriving around 98 percent of its domestic energy from renewable sources, Norway continues to be Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, with an output of around 4 million bpd. The government’s aim to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 appears to be at odds with its strategy to continue to explore for and develop new oil and gas fields. 

Instead of leading the world in a shift away from fossil fuels to renewable alternatives, five of the world’s richest countries and proponents of a green transition continue to support oil and gas production in the North Sea. The countries have no clear plan to cut production or work together to establish steps to achieve their climate pledges when it comes to North Sea operations, undermining their roles as ‘climate leaders’. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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11 04, 2024

Daily Sugar Market Update By Vizzie – 05/04/2024

By |2024-04-11T18:24:14+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


ChiniMandi, Mumbai: 5th April 2024

Domestic Market

Domestic sugar continue to trade stable

Domestic sugar prices in major markets were reported to be stable after a mixed session yesterday. However, with a larger monthly quota, they are likely to face more pressure in the coming days. Furthermore, demand in the major markets is expected to be low, putting pressure on prices.

In Muzaffarnagar, M-grade sugar is priced between Rs 3,770 and Rs 3,800 per quintal, while S-grade sugar is expected to cost between Rs 3,420 and Rs 3,450. Agrimandi predicts that the price of S grade sugar in the Kolhapur market will fall to between Rs 3,380 and Rs 3,460 per quintal within the next two weeks.

Ex-mill Sugar Prices as on  April, 5 2024 :

State

S/30

[Rates per Quintal]

M/30

[Rates per Quintal]

Maharashtra

₹3440 to 3470

₹3520 to 3550

Karnataka

₹3620 to 3650

Uttar Pradesh

₹3760 to 3790

Gujarat

₹3471 to 3501

₹3521 to 3561

Tamil Nadu

₹3650 to 3800

Madhya Pradesh

₹3600 to 3610

₹3650 to 3660

Punjab

₹3825 to 3860

(All the above rates are excluding GST)

Destination-wise Spot Prices as on April, 5 2024 :

City

Grade

Rate

Delhi

M/30

₹4,005.75

Kanpur

M/30

₹3,958.50

Kolhapur

M/30

₹3,738.00

Kolkata

M/30

₹3,979.50

Muzaffarnagar

M/30

₹3,953.25

 

International Market

At the time of writing this update London White Sugar #5 front month contract is trading at $647.00 ton, whereas the New York Sugar #11 front month contract is trading at 22.25 c/lb.

Currency, Commodity & Indian Indices

The rupee traded against the US dollar at 83.326 whereas USD was trading with BRL at 5.0549, Crude futures traded at ₹7207, Crude WTI traded at $86.53 barrel. Sensex closed 20.59 points higher at 74248.22 whereas Nifty ended 0.95 points lower at 22513.70

News Round-Up

Government allows 64,494 tonnes of sugar export to Maldives

Government allows 64,494 tonnes of sugar export to Maldives

Government has no plans to resume sale of subsidised rice for ethanol production: Food Secretary

Government has no plans to resume sale of subsidised rice for ethanol production: Food Secretary

Wheat price won’t be affected: RBI Governor on heatwave predictions

Wheat price won’t be affected: RBI Governor on heatwave predictions

 



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11 04, 2024

Suing Big Oil Is Becoming a Lucrative Business

By |2024-04-11T18:24:13+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


First it was a group of children in Montana. Then, in Portugal, a group sued their local governments for allowing climate change to happen. The Montana group even won. It’s open season for suing governments—and Big Oil.

Of course, the supermajors have been a top target for environmentalist groups and some local authorities in the U.S. for years, but the lawsuits have not really resulted in any significant victories for the plaintiffs—yet.

But now it seems that anyone who has reason to be unhappy with their lot can just take Big Oil to court, which is exactly what one Belgian farmer did a month ago. According to Hugues Falys, “Climate change is having a tangible impact on my work and life: yield losses, extra work, and the stress that comes from dealing with a disrupted crop calendar.”

“My profession is intimately linked to the climate. In recent years, climate change has caused farmers a great deal of damage and left us uncertain about the future,” the farmer explained in March. Yet rather than suing all the Big Oil majors, Falys singled out TotalEnergies—possibly because it is the largest fuel distributor in Belgium.

Falys’s case opens in mid-April, and it may be interesting to keep an eye on developments in the courtroom as a possible sign of things to come. Meanwhile, Shell’s appeal against a landmark climate ruling by a Dutch court also began this month in The Hague.

Back in 2021, the District Court in The Hague ordered the oil supermajor to slash its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 in a first-of-its-kind ruling in a climate case brought by environmentalists that could set precedents for other oil companies. The court said Shell must start doing this immediately and include the so-called Scope 3 emissions, those generated by the use of its producers, per the order.

Shell appealed the ruling and, at the hearing, will argue that the original ruling had no legal basis and that it also overstepped the boundaries of judiciary authority, per the Financial Times. The environmentalist organization that won the original case, for its part, will present the same argument it used in 2021: that Shell has an obligation to act in accordance with studies suggesting the oil and gas industry causes changes in weather patterns and in accordance with international agreements such as the Paris Agreement.

Meanwhile, that same group of activists, Friends of the Earth, is threatening to sue ING—a Dutch lender that, like all lenders, does business with the oil and gas industry. The reason: that the bank does business with the oil and gas industry.

In January this year, Friends of the Earth sent the CEO of ING, Steven van Rijswijk, a notice of legal liability, informing him that the bank had violated its legal obligations “by contributing to dangerous climate change.”

In another remarkable development in the litigation world, a climate NGO claims that Big Oil majors can be sued for what they call “climate homicide.” The theory is that Big Oil knew about climate change but hid it, while climate change caused fatalities. For now, many believe this theory is outlandish and it would break down in court but its authors are not giving up, saying there has been interest from prosecutors.

Suing Big Oil is already a business, and in some cases it can be a lucrative business. Pushing the boundaries of what grievances can be taken to court is a marked feature of the litigation push against Big Oil—and a sign of tough times to come for an industry with a big climate change target on its back.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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11 04, 2024

Wall Street Remains On The Sidelines as Oil Jumps to $90

By |2024-04-11T18:24:11+02:00April 11, 2024|Gold News|0 Comments


After a slow start to the year, energy has emerged as the sector to watch with crude oil futures soaring to a five-month high in the wake of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran has vowed revenge on Israel after an airstrike on its embassy complex in Syria on Monday left two top generals and five military advisors dead, while yet another Ukrainian drone attack has struck one of Russia’s biggest oil refineries. WTI crude for April delivery has rallied to $86.76 per barrel while Brent May futures rose to $90.98. 

Lately, the energy sector has garnered the most momentum amongst  11 U.S. market sectors after rocketing 11.5% over the past 30 days; in comparison, the utilities sector has posted the second-highest gains after climbing 6.6% while the S&P 500 has notched 1.3% higher over the timeframe.


It’s headlines, not fundamentals” that lifted WTI, Mizuho’s Robert Yawger says, adding the biggest impact by the Middle East conflict has, so far, been to raise the cost of transport and insurance for ships plying the Red Sea. However, he has conceded that the latest strike in Syria “just ticks that much closer to dragging Iranian production into the conflict. Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity meant to turn down the heat on the situation, there is definitely a chance the Iranians response will not be as measured this time,” Yawger says.

However, not all analysts think that the oil price rally is merely being driven by headlines and sentiment. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that oil fundamentals remain strong and oil prices are set to trade in the lower $90s. StanChart has pointed out that fundamentals in oil markets remain strong, leaving OPEC with ample room to increase output in Q3 without either causing inventories to rise or prices to weaken. Related: Oil Surges Over $90 as UAE Cuts Diplomatic Ties with Israel



According to StanChart, one of the remarkable features of this year’s oil price rally is that market bulls have largely been missing in action. StanChart notes that Wall Street remains guarded about the oil price outlook, with the analysts’ Q2 Brent forecast of USD 94/bbl currently the only forecast above USD 90/bbl among 34 Wall Street forecasts. Indeed, both the median and the mean of the Q2 Bloomberg consensus panel currently stand at USD 83/bbl, virtually unchanged from the beginning of the year despite the markets tightening considerably. StanChart notes that even erstwhile oil price bulls have relatively low Q2 price forecasts. The bearish price views would be justified if fundamentals were looking weak, inventories were high and/or’ OPEC policy appeared uncertain or if geopolitics appeared benign. However, StanChart points out that none of these conditions hold, with the exact opposite being true. StanChart concedes that this cautious approach may yet prove to be correct, but says that several months of tighter fundamental readings and a near USD 15/bbl YTD price rally could finally persuade the bulls to cross the aisle.





Further Oil Price Gains

The latest Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data released by the EIA on 29 March puts the all-time record high for U.S. crude oil output at 13.295mb/d, which was the country’s average output in both November and December 2023. StanChart has, however, predicted that U.S. output will remain flat with the all-time high not likely to be surpassed until August 2024 and again in October. 

StanChart reckons that the U.S. market swung into a deficit of over 1.7 mb/d in both February and March, with the seasonal recovery in demand offsetting the recovery in U.S. output from its January low. The commodity experts estimate there was a counter-seasonal Q1 inventory draw of 1.12 mb/d, which led to a significant tightening compared with the inventory build recorded in Q1-2023. StanChart attributes the ongoing oil price rally to the 3 mb/d relative improvement from Q1-2023, and sees further price gains coming in Q2-2024.

Thankfully for the bulls, a section of Wall Street is beginning to warm up to oil and gas stocks.

According to Citi, Energy (XLE) is now the most crowded U.S. quant factor, noting that the sector tends to underperform over the next one to six months when it becomes red-hot. However, not everybody is convinced by the energy sector’s huge momentum. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley remains pessimistic about the U.S. stock market in general; however, MS has upgraded energy stocks to overweight from neutral, noting that energy companies have lagged the performance of oil, and the sector is favorably valued.



Taking the Fed’s recent messaging into account and assuming it is less concerned about inflation or looser financial conditions, commodity-oriented cyclicals and energy, in particular, could be due for a catch-up,” they have said.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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11 04, 2024

Oil Prices Surge as Geopolitical Risk Rises

By |2024-04-11T18:24:10+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


Oil Prices Surge

WTI crude oil’s current bullish trend, closely following Brent crude’s movements, has placed it at a crucial point for traders. This trend, driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions and economic factors, is pivotal in determining the future direction of oil prices.

Heightened Geopolitical Tensions Influencing Market

The surge in WTI crude oil prices is primarily due to escalating geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, especially tensions involving Israel and Iran. Such conflicts often lead to uncertainties in oil supply, thereby influencing global oil prices. This situation has directly contributed to the upward movement of WTI prices.

Brent Crude’s Impact on WTI

Parallel to these geopolitical developments, Brent crude has experienced a significant rally, surpassing $91 per barrel. This upward trend in Brent, a global oil benchmark, has directly influenced WTI prices. The close correlation between these two benchmarks means that trends in Brent often have a similar effect on WTI, as seen in the current market situation.

Economic Factors Shaping the Oil Market

In addition to geopolitical issues, economic elements are also shaping the oil market. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies and the global economic health significantly impact oil prices. The Fed’s measures to manage inflation and promote economic stability are crucial in this context. A strong economic recovery can lead to increased oil demand, supporting…

Oil Prices Surge

WTI crude oil’s current bullish trend, closely following Brent crude’s movements, has placed it at a crucial point for traders. This trend, driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions and economic factors, is pivotal in determining the future direction of oil prices.


Heightened Geopolitical Tensions Influencing Market

The surge in WTI crude oil prices is primarily due to escalating geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, especially tensions involving Israel and Iran. Such conflicts often lead to uncertainties in oil supply, thereby influencing global oil prices. This situation has directly contributed to the upward movement of WTI prices.


Brent Crude’s Impact on WTI




Parallel to these geopolitical developments, Brent crude has experienced a significant rally, surpassing $91 per barrel. This upward trend in Brent, a global oil benchmark, has directly influenced WTI prices. The close correlation between these two benchmarks means that trends in Brent often have a similar effect on WTI, as seen in the current market situation.

Economic Factors Shaping the Oil Market

In addition to geopolitical issues, economic elements are also shaping the oil market. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies and the global economic health significantly impact oil prices. The Fed’s measures to manage inflation and promote economic stability are crucial in this context. A strong economic recovery can lead to increased oil demand, supporting higher prices, while economic slowdowns or policy changes that impact growth can lead to lower oil prices.

EIA Report: A Mixed Bag for Oil Traders

The recent U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report revealed a rise in U.S. crude oil stocks, contrary to analysts’ expectations of a decrease, with a significant build of 3.2 million barrels. This increase contrasts with the substantial decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories, which exceeded analysts’ forecasts. High nationwide gasoline prices, stable OPEC+ production, and various refinery outages in the U.S. are influencing these trends. The market is balancing these factors, indicating both potential supply growth and increased fuel demand, especially as the summer driving season approaches.


Supply-Demand Imbalance

The oil market is currently experiencing a supply shortage, exacerbated by OPEC+ production cuts and reduced investment in oil exploration. On the demand side, there’s a resurgence as global economies recover from the pandemic. This imbalance between supply and demand is a critical factor supporting the current bullish sentiment in the oil market.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Weekly May WTI Crude Oil

Trend Indicator Analysis

The main trend is up. This week, the market blew through our first target at $84.87, putting $88.31 on the radar. With this move, the new main bottom becomes $71.52.  A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.  

Retracement Level Analysis

The contract range is $39.02 to $88.31. Its retracement zone at $63.67 to $57.85 is the major support zone. This area stopped the selling the week-ending June 16, 2023 at $65.18. This is a major long-term value zone.

The intermediate range is $58.73 to $88.31. Its retracement zone at $77.10 to $79.95 is resistance. The market is currently testing this area.

The minor range is $65.00 to $85.75. Its retracement zone at $73.52 to $70.03 is another value zone.

The short-term range is $88.31 to $65.18. The market is currently on the strong side of its retracement zone at $79.47 to $76.75, making it near-term support.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the May WTI crude oil market the week-ending April 12 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $79.47.  

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $79.47 will signal the presence of strong buyers. If this creates enough near-term momentum then we could see an acceleration to the upside with the main top at $88.31 the next target. There is little resistance on the weekly chart until this level.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $79.47 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into the short-term 50% level at $76.75. Holding this level could create a rangebound trade. If it fails to hold as support then $73.52 to $70.03 will become the next target zone.

Short-Term Market Forecast

The short-term outlook for WTI crude oil remains bullish. Geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions are expected to maintain supply concerns, which support higher prices. Additionally, the performance of Brent crude remains a relevant factor for WTI trends. The actions of the Federal Reserve and the path of global economic recovery will also be crucial factors to monitor.

However, this bullish outlook comes with potential risks. Any significant reduction in geopolitical tensions or changes in economic policies, especially by the Federal Reserve, could change the market direction. Traders should stay alert to these evolving situations.

In summary, the combination of geopolitical and economic factors, along with supply-demand issues in the oil market, suggests a continued upward trend for WTI crude oil in the short term. However, this trend depends on a complex and changing global scenario, requiring traders to monitor developments closely and adapt their strategies accordingly.

Technically speaking, there appears to be enough upside momentum to take a shot at $88.31 next week, followed by the elusive $90.00 level. The uptrend is likely to remain in motion until hit by an opposing force like a weekly closing price reversal top.



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11 04, 2024

Poor US export sales, large South American crop weigh on soybeans

By |2024-04-11T18:24:08+02:00April 11, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


Source: Sosland Publishing Co.
Recap for April 4

  • Soybean futures were pressured Thursday by lower-than-expected export sales and abundant South American production. Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures ended mixed while Minneapolis wheat futures closed with solid gains. Traders processed news that a Russian grain trader had refuted prior reports that some of its exports were being restricted by local authorities. Strong export sales gave support to corn futures, as did a weakening US dollar, but gains were limited by ample supplies and a forecast for good planting weather. May corn added 3½¢ to close at $4.35¼ per bu. Chicago May wheat ticked up ¼¢ to close at $5.56¼ per bu; later months were narrowly mixed. Kansas City May wheat declined 3¢ and closed at $5.77½ per bu; later months were narrowly mixed. Minneapolis May wheat added 6¾¢ and closed at $6.46¼ per bu. May soybeans were 2¼¢ lower and closed at $11.80 per bu; March 2025 and beyond were slightly higher. May soybean meal was up $3.50 to close at $333.50 per ton. May soybean oil lost 0.7¢ to close at 48.15¢ a lb.
  • US crude oil prices continued to climb Thursday. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added 1.16¢ to close at $86.59 per barrel. 
  • US equity markets dropped on Thursday after a Federal Reserve official alluded to the possibility that interest rate cuts may not happen in 2024. Rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East also pressured stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 530.16 points, or 1.35%, to close at 38,596.98. The Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 64.28 points, or 1.23%, to close at 5,147.21. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 228.38 points, or 1.4%, to close at 16,049.08. 
  • The US dollar index closed lower for a third straight day Thursday. 
  • US gold futures ended their rally streak Thursday. The April contract gave back $5.60 to close at $2,288.80 per oz.

Recap for April 3

  • Wheat futures launched a rebound Wednesday after sliding lower since the new week, month and quarter began. Lifting wheat was a round of short covering, technical trading, a weakening dollar and geopolitical news after Russia halted exports on some ships owned by one of the biggest local grain trading houses. Corn futures, too, firmed on short covering as the dollar weakened, though gains were limited by ample supplies and forecasts for good planting weather later this month on the heels of rainy, snowy conditions this week that improved soil moisture. Also, technical buying and short covering were behind soybean futures’ bounce from one-month lows induced by lackluster demand and increasing South American supplies. May corn added 5¼¢ to close at $4.31¾ per bu. Chicago May wheat jumped 10¾¢ to close at $5.56 per bu. Kansas City May wheat soared 17¼¢ higher and closed at $5.80½ per bu. Minneapolis May wheat added 12¢ and closed at $6.39½ per bu. May soybeans advanced 8¼¢ to close at $11.82¼ per bu. May soybean meal was up $1.70 to close at $330 per ton. May soybean oil added 0.25¢ to close at 48.85¢ a lb.
  • US crude oil prices hit the highest levels since late October Wednesday on concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries and a vow of revenge against Israel by Hamas-backer Iran, the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added 28¢ to close at $85.43 per barrel. 
  • US equity markets were mixed Wednesday, the Dow industrial index slipping while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained, the latter snapping a two-day losing streak after Fed chairman Jerome Powell said a strong economy hasn’t changed the expectation interest rate cuts will be warranted later this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 43.10 points, or 0.11%, to close at 39,127.14. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 5.68 points, or 0.11%, to close at 5,211.49. The Nasdaq Composite added 37.01 points, or 0.23%, to close at 16,277.46. 
  • The US dollar index closed lower again Wednesday. 
  • US gold futures jumped higher again Wednesday. The April contract added $33.40 to close at $2,294.40 per oz.

Recap for April 2

  • US wheat futures continued lower Tuesday, a day after the USDA said winter wheat was in the best early spring shape since 2019. Beneficial rains in the forecast for the dry southern Plains added pressure as did cheap grain on the global market that limited US export demand. Corn futures also dipped as forecasts indicated good spring planting weather ahead that eased concerns about the USDA’s lower-than-expected acreage outlook issued late last week. Soybean futures trended higher before breaking through previous support levels, which initiated technical selling and lower closing prices. May corn fell 9¢ to close at $4.26½ per bu. Chicago May wheat declined 11¾¢ to close at $5.45¼ per bu. Kansas City May wheat fell 12¼¢ and closed at $5.63¼ per bu. Minneapolis May wheat dropped 7¼¢ and closed at $6.27½ per bu. May soybeans shed 11¾¢ to close at $11.74 per bu. May soybean meal was down $5.10 to close at $328.30 per ton. May soybean oil added 0.36¢ to close at 48.6¢ a lb.
  • US crude oil prices were higher again Tuesday, pushing the Brent benchmark above $89 a bu for the first time since October. Support came from escalating Middle East conflict and a Ukrainian drone strike on one of Russia’s biggest refineries. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added $1.44 to close at $85.15 per barrel. 
  • The US dollar index closed lower Tuesday. 
  • US gold futures jumped higher Tuesday. The April contract added $24.50 to close at $2,261 per oz.
  • US equity markets closed lower Tuesday, pressured by climbing bond yields, rising crude oil prices and widening doubts that the Federal Reserve fully contained inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 396.61 points, or 1%, to close at 39,170.24. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 37.96 points, or 0.72%, to close at 5,205.81. The Nasdaq Composite fell 156.38 points, or 0.95%, to close at 16,240.45. 

Recap for April 1

  • Ample supplies weighed on US grain and oilseed futures Monday. Traders took profits off last week’s steep gains in the corn market precipitated by the USDA pegging corn acreage below expectations. Some surmised seeded area would increase due to good planting weather in forecasts. Wheat futures were pressured by expectations for improved crop conditions that did not materialize. Soybeans followed wheat and corn lower while under pressure from seasonally slowing US export demand. May corn fell 6½¢ to close at $4.35½ per bu. Chicago May wheat shed 3¼¢ to close at $5.57 per bu; later months were mixed. Kansas City May wheat fell 9¾¢ and closed at $5.75½ per bu. Minneapolis May wheat dropped 10¼¢ and closed at $6.34¾ per bu. May soybeans lost 5¾¢ to close at $11.85¾ per bu. May soybean meal was down $4.30 to close at $333.40 per ton. May soybean oil added 0.29¢ to close at 48.24¢ a lb.
  • The US dollar index closed higher Monday. 
  • US gold futures climbed Monday despite the strengthening dollar. The April contract added $19.10 to close at $2,236.50 per oz.
  • US equity markets posted mixed closes to open the second quarter Monday. The Nasdaq advanced while the Dow industrials index and S&P 500 slipped after a closely watched report, the ISM manufacturing index for March, based on a survey of purchasing managers, came in at 50.3, up from 47.8 in February and above the 48.1 reading anticipated by economists in a Wall Street Journal survey. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 240.52 points, or 0.6%, to close at 39,566.85. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 10.58 points, or 0.2%, to close at 5,243.77. The Nasdaq Composite added 17.37 points, or 0.11%, to close at 16,396.83. 
  • US crude oil prices were higher Monday. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added 54¢ to close at $83.71 per barrel. 

Recap for March 28

  • Corn futures Thursday posted their largest one-day rally since July after the USDA estimated March 1 corn stocks and projected 2024 corn plantings below trade estimates. Winter wheat futures followed corn higher even as all-wheat stocks and plantings slightly topped expectations. Meanwhile, spring wheat futures took a downturn after spring wheat and durum planting expectations topped projections. May corn jumped 15¼¢ to close at $4.42 per bu. Chicago May wheat added 12¾¢ to close at $5.60¼ per bu. Kansas City May wheat added 7¢ and closed at $5.85¼ per bu. Minneapolis May wheat dropped 6¢ and closed at $6.45 per bu. May soybeans lost 1¢ to close at $11.91½ per bu; the September future and beyond were higher. May soybean meal was down $1.30 to close at $337.70 per ton; later months were mixed. May soybean oil added 0.28¢ to close at 47.95¢ a lb.
  • The US dollar index closed higher Thursday. 
  • US gold futures soared Thursday despite the strengthening dollar. The April contract added $26.80 to close at $2,217.40 per oz
  • US equity markets were mixed Thursday. The S&P 500 notched a 22nd record-high close of 2024 and its best first quarter since 2019. Support was drawn from a report noting the US economy grew in the fourth quarter even more than previously thought, according to the government’s revised estimate for gross domestic product. A University of Michigan survey said consumer confidence rose to its highest level in almost three years. The DJIA also closed at a record high. The US stock and bond markets will be closed for Good Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 47.29 points, or 0.12%, to close at 39,807.37. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 5.86 points, or 0.11%, to close at 5,254.35. The Nasdaq Composite fell 20.06 points, or 0.12%, to close at 16,379.46. 
  • US crude oil prices climbed Thursday. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added $1.82 to close at $83.17 per barrel. 

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