March 25, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Invalidation of the breakouts, candlestick formation, and the volume. What are they saying about the next move?

Technical Picture of Gold

Looking at the medium-term chart, we see that although the sellers invalidated the earlier breakout above the upper border of the blue rising wedge in the week ended on Mar.15, their opponents closed ranks and pushed the price of the yellow metal to a fresh high of $2,225.30 in the previous week.

Despite this improvement, they didn’t manage to hold gained levels, which translated into a correction of the earlier move and another weekly closure below the mentioned blue resistance line.

Thanks to this decline, a doji candlestick with a prolonged upper shadow appeared on the chart, confirming the bears’ involvement in the decline.

What impact did this move have on the short-term chart?

Before we answer this question, let’s recall the quotes from the last article on gold:

(…) gold moved lower yesterday and tested the 2023 peak once again. Despite this downswing, bulls stopped their opponents and triggered a rebound, which left on the chart a red candle with a prolonged lower shadow (another pro-growth hammer).

Yesterday’s small decline materialized on a smaller volume than earlier increase, which suggests that the sellers may lose interest in further attacks.

Correct Assumptions

From today’s point of view, we see that last week’s assumption turned out to be correct and translated into another upswing that took gold not only to the red gap formed on Mar.13 (as a reminder, it was the upside target for the buyers about which I wrote in Quick Gold Alert posted on Tuesday), but also to a re-test of the barrier of $2,200.

It turned out to be a very easy challenge for the rushing bulls, who crossed it with ease – just like the previous peak. As a result, the new highest peak of the 21st century has been reached (in line with the assumption from Quick Gold Alert posted on Mar. 13).

As I mentioned earlier, the price reversed and pulled back, invalidating the earlier breakout above the previous peak and the barrier of $2,200, which caused the bears’ attack and closure of the green gap formed on Thursday (seen more clearly on the chart below).

However, despite over 1% loss, the volume that accompanied Friday’s decline was quite small, which resulted in a higher open earlier today.

From this perspective, we see that gold futures formed a green supportive gap ($2,160-$2,167.45), which suggests that further improvement may be just around the corner – especially when we factor in the current position of the 4-hour indicators.

Just take a look at the chart below.

From this closer point of view, we see that the Stochastic Oscillator slipped to its lowest level since Mar.18 (just like the CCI), which suggests that we could see a similar rebound in the coming day(s). If this is the case, and the bulls use the above-mentioned technical developments to their advantage, we could see even a re-test of the barrier of $2,200 once again.

Summing up, although gold bulls failed to hold the price above the barrier of $2,200, the lower volume that accompanied Friday’s session, today’s green supportive gap, and the current situation in the USD Index suggest that another upswing may be just around the corner.

Thank you for reading today’s gold price forecast. The full version of my analysis includes trading details, and my premium subscribers are updated regarding the trading details on a daily basis – and as you know, in the case of gold, a lot can change in one day. The regular price of my premium Quick Gold Alerts is just $49/mo. and there’s also a free, 7-day trial, so that you can conveniently check the benefits that my premium subscribers get. I encourage you to subscribe to my Quick Gold Alerts with a free weekly trial today.

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The recent two tops in were 9 trading days apart. Just like in 2011, the similarity doesn’t end there.

Patterns Repeating

The shape of the price moves that preceded the 2011 top, as well as the length of the consolidations, are also similar.

Please note the days that I marked with red arrows based on their huge volume. The first one marked the beginning of the consolidation that lasted 43 trading days. Gold price then soared and formed the double top with both tops being formed on even very big volume. After that happened, gold started to decline. First, in a back-and-forth manner, but then it accelerated sharply, and ultimately gold price declined by almost $400 in 14 trading days.

Now, please take a look at what we see in gold price now.

Once again, let’s start with the huge-volume days that I marked with red arrows. The first of those days marks the start of the consolidation. This time, it took 49 trading days, but just like in the 2011 chart, we can see three specific tops that preceded the final bottom. Then gold rallied, and after the sharp rally, it formed a double top, with each of the tops forming in very big volume.

Yes, this time, the rally was quicker and smaller than it was in 2011, but overall, the similarity is still remarkable.

Back in 2011, the follow-up was extremely bearish, so the implications for the current situation are also very bearish.

Now, since gold didn’t rally as much as it did back in 2011, based on this self-similar pattern, it might not decline as much as it did back then. Relative approach appears to be more appropriate. In this case, back in 2011 gold simply gave away the gains from the final upswing. If the same thing happens now, gold is likely to decline to just above $2,000 within the next 1-2 weeks.

Gold is up in today’s pre-market trading, but not significantly so. This is in perfect tune with the post-double-top 2011 price action – the local moves back up were normal, and they didn’t prevent gold from declining.

The interesting thing is that the current sentiment appears to be very similar to what we had in 2011. I’m not sure if you remember this, but back then it was impossible to convince people that gold was about to move lower. In fact, back then at the top, I also thought that gold would move even higher after this “brief pause” – because that’s the double-top pattern seemed like at that time.

Gold price was in uncharted waters, there was no clear analogy to anything like that. This time, we DO have this kind of analogy. One could choose to ignore it and follow the sentiment, the “this time is different, gold and stocks can’t fall” narrative, or one can look at how similar the situation were and analyze other facts with cold logic.

How logical is it to have gold breaking new highs with such a poor performance in gold stocks?

I don’t even mean the fact that miners and silver are nowhere close to their nominal 2011 highs (because, in real terms, not even gold is above its 2011 high). I mean that despite gold’s move to a new all-time high, mining stocks failed to even more above their previous yearly high.

No. They were too weak even for that. Gold miners – that are supposed to be particularly strong in the first part of the big rally – remains in a steady medium-term downtrend.

And the very short-term corrective upswing in them appears to be over.

After moving above their previous (January) highs for the second time, the junior mining stocks declined, invalidating this move. When we saw the same thing in late 2023, that was the final top.

Technical Reversals

Moving back to gold, please note that it formed a major reversal last week, ending the week $1.50 (little, but still) lower.

The was down by 1.61% and was down by 2.12%. The reversal that we saw in gold – on its own – suggest that gold is about to turn south, and that comes on top of multiple other indications that I discussed on Friday and earlier today.

The indications from gold and from gold stocks confirm each other, and the outlook for gold doesn’t look pretty. This creates a great opportunity for those who position themselves to benefit from the likely price moves instead of being hurt by them. It’s difficult to just do what the charts are very strongly suggesting instead of following the sentiment. But those who can do it, will likely prevail in a very profitable way.

Disclaimer:
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The general trend of the gold price remains upward, and a first break of the trend will not occur without moving towards the support levels of $2100 and $2050 per ounce. 

• During last week’s trading sessions, the price of gold finally surpassed the $2200 resistance level for the first time.
• Gains extended to reach the all-time high resistance level of $2222 per ounce for the yellow metal.
• Clearly, this came after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would proceed with three interest rate cuts in 2024 despite rising inflation.

The recent rise in the gold price, which began in mid-February, is driven by long-term tailwinds including rising geopolitical risks and increased buying by global central banks. This month alone, the safe-haven metal has hit new record highs on five occasions. Its rapid rise, according to Bloomberg columnists, has surprised many seasoned market watchers, as there was no clear catalyst. What has been driving bullion prices in part is the expectation of a more dovish monetary policy in the United States, which the Federal Reserve has now confirmed.

Last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continued to highlight officials’ desire to see more evidence of falling prices, but “it remains likely in most people’s eyes that we will achieve that confidence and there will be interest rate cuts.”

According to analysts, what was issued by the US Central Bank is the green light for gold traders to return. Also, the US Federal Reserve said that they are currently tolerant of the inflation that we have witnessed, and that they are tolerant that the strength of the labor market will not be an obstacle.”

Furthermore, perhaps speculation about the timing of the Fed’s long-awaited pivot has provided the trigger for the recent gains, with data showing that traders boosted their net long positions in gold in the week ended March 5 by the most since 2019. Moreover, the yellow metal is expected to benefit further when US interest rates do fall, as bullion-backed ETFs are likely to increase their holdings, according to UBS Group.

On the geopolitical front, there are a number of risks that are boosting the appeal of gold as a safe haven: Russia appears to have gained the upper hand in its war in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues unabated, and has led to a redirection of global finance and shipping. Also, the US presidential election later this year could be of major importance to the markets. Chinese buying has helped to support prices as well. In addition to central bank policy, people are stocking up on coins, bullion, and jewelry to protect their wealth from the country’s years-long real estate slump and stock market losses.

The general trend of the gold price remains upward, and a first break of the trend will not occur without moving towards the support levels of $2100 and $2050 per ounce. Gold price gains around and above the resistance of $2200 have moved all technical indicators towards strong buying saturation levels. Therefore, caution and good monitoring are necessary when considering buying gold from those peaks. Furthermore, we expect a week of trading in narrow ranges for the gold price until the reaction of the markets and the US dollar price to the announcement of the preferred inflation reading of the US Federal Reserve.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from. 

Gold prices edged higher on Monday as renewed bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in June and a softer dollar lifted bullion’s appeal.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,166.39 per ounce, as of 0648 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.4% to $2,167.70 per ounce.

The dollar was down 0.1% against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.

“The environment is still looking quite healthy for the precious metal markets,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“Markets are still looking forward to impending rate cuts from the Fed. Looks like June is being the most probable time when they are sort of expected to pull the trigger on that first rate cut.”

Gold prices rose to an all-time high on Thursday after Fed policymakers indicated they still expected to reduce interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024 despite recent high inflation readings.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Traders are now pricing in a 74% probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Investors are now awaiting U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data due on Friday to see if that could alter the Fed’s projections of three rate cuts for this year.

The index was seen rising 0.3% in February, which would keep the annual pace at 2.8%. Many markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday when the PCE data is due for release, so the full reaction is expected to be seen next week.

Spot gold may break support at $2,161 per ounce, and fall into a $2,147-$2,152 range, according to Reuters’ technical analyst Wang Tao.

Spot silver eased 0.1% to $24.62 per ounce, platinum rose 0.2% to $896.23 and palladium climbed 0.8% to $993.37.

KATHMANDU, March 25: Gold price in the domestic market has surged to Rs 126,700 per tola, continuing its upward trend. This marks an increase of Rs 200 per tola compared to last Friday and Rs 900 per tola compared to the beginning of the current month. 

However, it has witnessed a decrease of Rs 1,100 per tola compared to last Thursday. Gold trading prices have consistently been on the rise, setting record gains, which is also reflected in the international market.

On March 14, gold was priced at Rs 125,800 per tola, reaching Rs 1,27,800 per tola last Thursday. Despite starting the week at Rs 125,000 per tola, it saw a slight decrease of Rs 500 per tola on Monday. However, it surged by Rs 700 per tola on Tuesday to reach Rs 124,500 per tola and remained stable at the same price on Wednesday. Compared to the third and fourth days of the week, gold prices soared by Rs 2,600 per tola on Thursday, followed by a decrease of Rs 1,300 per tola on Friday.

The price of standard gold is fixed at Rs 126,100 per tola today, marking an increase from Rs 125,900 per tola on Friday.

Additionally, silver prices stood at Rs 1,515 per tola on Monday, witnessing an increase of Rs 15 from Friday. Last Thursday, silver had reached Rs 1,555 per tola.

In the international market, gold is trading at $2,169.55 per ounce on Monday, showing an increase of $134.11 within a month. Meanwhile, silver is priced at $24.65 per ounce today, witnessing a rise of $2.17 over the past month.

VANCOUVER, BC, March 25, 2024 /CNW/ – P2 Gold Inc. (“P2” or the “Company”) (TSXV: PGLD) (OTCQB: PGLDF) provides an update on its wholly-owned gold-copper Gabbs Project located on the Walker-Lane Trend in Nevada and confirms the terms of the finder’s fee for its convertible debenture unit offering

Gabbs Project Preliminary Economic Assessment

The Company is re-evaluating the preliminary economic assessment (“PEA”) on the Gabbs Project, with a new PEA expected to be completed in the second quarter of this year. In re-evaluating the PEA, the Company is assessing the benefits of incorporating the lower grade mineralized material above the cutoff grade for heap leach and mill mineralized material that was not included in the September 2023 PEA. The 2024 PEA is expected to comprise a heap leach operation and a mill operation starting up after the initial heap leach capital is repaid, with the heap leach and mill operating in tandem for the remainder of the mine life.

“Now that the outstanding project debt has been settled, we can focus on unlocking Gabbs’ potential by continuing to advance the project through feasibility,” commented Joe Ovsenek, President and CEO of P2. “Existing infrastructure at Gabbs includes paved access, power on the property and historically permitted water wells. The known zones of gold-copper mineralization at Gabbs outcrop at surface and remain open in multiple directions, and the property remains highly prospective for the discovery of new zones of mineralization. We look forward to announcing the results of the 2024 PEA.”

Convertible Debenture Unit Offering

On March 14, 2024, the Company closed the second and final tranche of a non-brokered private placement of convertible debenture units (the “Units”) at $1,000 per Unit, for gross proceeds of $1,665,000 (the “Offering”), previously announced on February 13, 2024 and March 5, 2024. In connection with the Offering, the Company paid finder’s fees of an aggregate of $71,040 and issued an aggregate of 916,875 warrants (the “Finder’s Warrants”) to an arm’s length finder, representing 6% of the proceeds raised from subscriptions by, and 6% of the Units issued to, certain placees. Each Finder’s Warrant entitles the holder thereof to acquire one common share in the capital of the Company (a “Share”) at an exercise price of $0.07, for a period of 24 months (the “Expiry Time”), provided that, if after the later of four months from the date of issue and conversion, the closing price of the Shares on the Exchange is equal to or greater than $0.30 for a period of 10 consecutive trading days at any time prior to the Expiry Time, the Company will have the right to accelerate the Expiry Time by giving notice to the holder of the Finder’s Warrants by news release or other form of notice permitted by the certificate representing the Finder’s Warrants that the Finder’s Warrants will expire at 4:30 p.m. (Vancouver time) on a date that is not less than 15 days from the date notice is given.

Qualified person

Ken McNaughton, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Chief Exploration Officer, P2 Gold, is the Qualified Person, as defined by National Instrument 43-101, responsible for the Gabbs Project. Mr. McNaughton has reviewed, verified, and approved the scientific and technical information in this news release.

About P2 Gold Inc.

P2 is a mineral exploration and development company focused on advancing precious metals and copper discoveries and acquisitions in the western United States and British Columbia.

Neither the Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Forward Looking Information

This press release contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws that is intended to be covered by the safe harbours created by those laws. “Forward-looking information” includes statements that use forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “continue”, “potential” or the negative thereof or other variations thereof or comparable terminology. Such forward-looking information includes, without limitation, information with respect to the Company’s expectations, strategies and plans for the Gabbs Project including the Company’s planned expenditures and exploration activities.

Forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and is based upon a number of estimates and assumptions of management at the date the statements are made. Furthermore, such forward-looking information involves a variety of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual plans, intentions, activities, results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future plans, intentions, activities, results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking information, including without limitation, risks associated with mineral exploration, including the risk that actual results and timing of exploration and development will be different from those expected by management. See “Risk Factors” in the Company’s annual information form dated March 16, 2023 filed on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca for a discussion of these risks.

The Company cautions that there can be no assurance that forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such information. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information.

Except as required by law, the Company does not assume any obligation to release publicly any revisions to forward-looking information contained in this press release to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof.

SOURCE P2 Gold Inc.

View original content to download multimedia: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/March2024/25/c7242.html

Saigon Jewelry Company gold bar price fell 0.39% to VND80 million ($3,230.8) per tael Monday morning.