Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant (L) visit the troops participating in Gaza Strip and made a situation assessment with the commanders in Rafah, Gaza on March 13, 2024.
Ariel Hermoni | Anadolu | Getty Images
Crude oil futures fell for a second day Tuesday as the recent rally paused while traders took stock of where the conflict in Middle East was heading.
The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery fell 48 cents, or 0.56%, to $85.95 a barrel. The June Brent futures contract lost 32 cents, or 0.35%, to $90.06 a barrel.
Crude prices settled lower Monday after Israel reduced its forces in Gaza over the weekend, suggesting the country’s military campaign might transition to a more limited phase.
But Barclays head of equity derivatives strategy Stefano Pascale said there are still upside risks to oil prices, particularly from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite the recent rally taking a pause.
“Further melt-up may reawaken inflationary concerns, derailing the equity rally,” Pascale told clients in a note Tuesday. Investors will be closely watching the March consumer price index reading on Wednesday to see how oil prices have impacted headline inflation.
Oil Prices, Energy News and Analysis
Oil rallied more than 4% last week as Israel and Iran teetered on the brink of a direct confrontation after Tehran’s consulate in Damascus was destroyed in a missile attack.
“The conflicts in the Middle East increase the risk of a wider regional conflict, which could have implications for oil supply, but it is important to note that Iran has, so far, refrained from getting directly involved in the conflict and OPEC spare capacity is currently elevated,” Amarpreet Singh, energy analyst at Barclays, told clients Friday.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed late Monday to press on with an offensive against the southern city of Rafah on the Egyptian border, saying a date had been set for the operation.
“This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. It will happen —there is a date,” Netanyahu said in an address.
The U.S has warned Israel against launching an offensive against Rafah, where more than 1 million Palestinians who have fled fighting elsewhere in Gaza are taking refuge.
Ceasefire negotiations also appeared deadlocked in Cairo, with Hamas saying Israel’s proposal did not meet Palestinian demands.
WTI has gained 20.8% this year while Brent is up more than 17% as geopolitical tensions mount against the backdrop of rising demand and OPEC+ production cuts that are expected to push the market into a supply deficit this year. Barclays expects a 400,000 barrel per day deficit for 2024.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday after hopes diminished that negotiations between Israel and Hamas would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza amid concerns the lingering conflict could potentially disrupt supply from the key Middle East producing region.
Brent crude futures rose 14 cents to $90.52 a barrel by 0610 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was 10 cents higher at $86.53.
A fresh round of Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions in Cairo had ended a multi-session rally on Monday, leading Brent to its first decline in five sessions and WTI to its first in seven on the prospect that geopolitical risks could ease.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday an unspecified date had been set for Israel’s invasion of the Rafah enclave in Gaza.
That is “ending the hopes that briefly gripped the market yesterday that geopolitical tensions in the region might be easing,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst with IG, wrote in a note.
Hamas said early on Tuesday that Israel’s proposal it received from Qatari and Egyptian mediators did not meet any of the demands of Palestinian factions. But Hamas said it would study the proposal before responding to the mediators.
Without an end to the conflict, there is an elevated risk that it involves other countries in the region, especially Iran, a major Hamas backer and the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
An Iranian response to Israel’s suspected attack last week on its consulate in Syria “could drag the oil market into the conflict, after being largely unimpacted since Hamas’s attack on Israel,” ANZ analysts said in a client note.
Tehran said that it would take revenge after an airstrike killed two of its generals and five military advisors in Damascus, although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack.
“The positive geopolitical risk premium is indeed supporting the current medium-term uptrend phase of oil,” said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore.
Broader fundamentals are supportive of prices as well, the ANZ analysts said. India’s fuel demand hit a record high in the 2024 fiscal year driven by higher gasoline and jet fuel consumption, data showed on Monday. An improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity announced last week is also expected to boost fuel demand.
This week, the market will be watching inflation data due from the U.S. and China for further signals on the economic direction of the world’s top two oil consumers.
In the Americas, Mexico’s state oil company Pemex said it would reduce crude exports by 330,000 barrels per day so it can supply more to domestic refineries, cutting the supply available to the company’s U.S., European and Asian buyers by one-third.
Home » Dryness in US Plains, Russia pulls wheat higher
Source: Sosland Publishing Co.
Recap for April 6
Dry weather concerns for the US and Russian crops bolstered most wheat futures Monday, as did concerns about Russia delaying shipments. Pressuring soybean futures was lackluster demand from China, the largest global importer, and intense export competition from Brazil. Corn futures edged higher ahead of Thursday’s supply-demand report in which traders expect the USDA to lower its forecast for 2024 corn carryover. May corn added 1¼¢ to close at $4.35½ per bu. ChicagoMay wheat fell 1½¢ to close at $5.65¾ per bu; the December contract and beyond edged higher. Kansas CityMay wheat added 3¢ and closed at $5.85¼ per bu. MinneapolisMaywheat added 2¼¢ and closed at $6.50¼ per bu. May soybeans were down 3½¢ to close at $11.81½ per bu. May soybean meal was up $2.90 to close at $336 per ton. May soybean oil lost 0.99¢ to close at 47.9¢ a lb.
US crude oil prices declined Monday. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future dropped 48¢ to close at $86.43 per barrel.
US equity markets were mixed but nearly flat Monday as treasury yields hit their highest levels in months and investors awaited fresh inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average subtracted 11.24 points, or 0.03%, to close at 38,892.8. The Standard & Poor’s 500 eased 1.95 points, or 0.04%, to close at 5,202.39. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 5.44 points, or 0.03%, to close at 16,253.96.
The US dollar index reverted Monday to the downside pattern of the previous week.
US goldfutures continued to rally Monday. The April contract added $6 to close at $2,331.70 per oz.
Recap for April 5
US crude oil prices rose more than a dollar per barrel during trading Friday as markets closely watched for signals of direct conflict between Israel and Iran that could tighten crude supplies. Both Brent crude and WTI oil prices trimmed gains by the close but settled at their highest levels since October. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added 32¢ to close at $86.91 per barrel.
Wheat futures climbed Friday, some contracts to one-month highs, in technical trading and short covering with support from Black Sea geopolitical tension and deteriorating crop conditions in France. Technical trading and short covering boosted soybean futures, though the commodity was mixed for the week on lackluster demand and increasing supplies from South America’s harvest. Corn futures dropped on ample supplies and a favorable outlook for Midwest planting later this month. May corn dropped 1¢ to close at $4.34¼ per bu; May 2025 and beyond posted gains. ChicagoMay wheat added 11¢ to close at $5.67¼ per bu. Kansas CityMay wheat added 4¾¢ and closed at $5.82¼ per bu. MinneapolisMaywheat added 1¾¢ and closed at $6.48 per bu. May soybeans were 5¢ higher and closed at $11.85 per bu; later months were mixed. May soybean meal was down 40¢ to close at $333.10 per ton. May soybean oil gained 0.74¢ to close at 48.89¢ a lb.
US equity markets resumed their rallies Friday after the Labor Department said US employers added a seasonally adjusted 303,000 jobs in March, significantly more than the 200,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.8% versus 3.9% in February, in line with expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 307.06 points, or 0.8%, to close at 38,904.04. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 57.13 points, or 1.11%, to close at 5,204.34. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 199.44 points, or 1.24%, to close at 16,248.52.
The US dollar index broke its three-day losing streak with a higher close Friday.
US goldfutures resumed their rally Friday. The April contract added $36.90 to close at $2,325.70 per oz.
Recap for April 4
Soybean futures were pressured Thursday by lower-than-expected export sales and abundant South American production. Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures ended mixed while Minneapolis wheat futures closed with solid gains. Traders processed news that a Russian grain trader had refuted prior reports that some of its exports were being restricted by local authorities. Strong export sales gave support to corn futures, as did a weakening US dollar, but gains were limited by ample supplies and a forecast for good planting weather. May corn added 3½¢ to close at $4.35¼ per bu. ChicagoMay wheat ticked up ¼¢ to close at $5.56¼ per bu; later months were narrowly mixed. Kansas CityMay wheat declined 3¢ and closed at $5.77½ per bu; later months were narrowly mixed. MinneapolisMaywheat added 6¾¢ and closed at $6.46¼ per bu. May soybeans were 2¼¢ lower and closed at $11.80 per bu; March 2025 and beyond were slightly higher. May soybean meal was up $3.50 to close at $333.50 per ton. May soybean oil lost 0.7¢ to close at 48.15¢ a lb.
US crude oil prices continued to climb Thursday. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added 1.16¢ to close at $86.59 per barrel.
US equity markets dropped on Thursday after a Federal Reserve official alluded to the possibility that interest rate cuts may not happen in 2024. Rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East also pressured stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 530.16 points, or 1.35%, to close at 38,596.98. The Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 64.28 points, or 1.23%, to close at 5,147.21. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 228.38 points, or 1.4%, to close at 16,049.08.
The US dollar index closed lower for a third straight day Thursday.
US goldfutures ended their rally streak Thursday. The April contract gave back $5.60 to close at $2,288.80 per oz.
Recap for April 3
Wheat futures launched a rebound Wednesday after sliding lower since the new week, month and quarter began. Lifting wheat was a round of short covering, technical trading, a weakening dollar and geopolitical news after Russia halted exports on some ships owned by one of the biggest local grain trading houses. Corn futures, too, firmed on short covering as the dollar weakened, though gains were limited by ample supplies and forecasts for good planting weather later this month on the heels of rainy, snowy conditions this week that improved soil moisture. Also, technical buying and short covering were behind soybean futures’ bounce from one-month lows induced by lackluster demand and increasing South American supplies. May corn added 5¼¢ to close at $4.31¾ per bu. ChicagoMay wheat jumped 10¾¢ to close at $5.56 per bu. Kansas CityMay wheat soared 17¼¢ higher and closed at $5.80½ per bu. MinneapolisMaywheat added 12¢ and closed at $6.39½ per bu. May soybeans advanced 8¼¢ to close at $11.82¼ per bu. May soybean meal was up $1.70 to close at $330 per ton. May soybean oil added 0.25¢ to close at 48.85¢ a lb.
US crude oil prices hit the highest levels since late October Wednesday on concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries and a vow of revenge against Israel by Hamas-backer Iran, the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added 28¢ to close at $85.43 per barrel.
US equity markets were mixed Wednesday, the Dow industrial index slipping while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained, the latter snapping a two-day losing streak after Fed chairman Jerome Powell said a strong economy hasn’t changed the expectation interest rate cuts will be warranted later this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 43.10 points, or 0.11%, to close at 39,127.14. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 5.68 points, or 0.11%, to close at 5,211.49. The Nasdaq Composite added 37.01 points, or 0.23%, to close at 16,277.46.
The US dollar index closed lower again Wednesday.
US goldfutures jumped higher again Wednesday. The April contract added $33.40 to close at $2,294.40 per oz.
Recap for April 2
US wheat futures continued lower Tuesday, a day after the USDA said winter wheat was in the best early spring shape since 2019. Beneficial rains in the forecast for the dry southern Plains added pressure as did cheap grain on the global market that limited US export demand. Corn futures also dipped as forecasts indicated good spring planting weather ahead that eased concerns about the USDA’s lower-than-expected acreage outlook issued late last week. Soybean futures trended higher before breaking through previous support levels, which initiated technical selling and lower closing prices. May corn fell 9¢ to close at $4.26½ per bu. ChicagoMay wheat declined 11¾¢ to close at $5.45¼ per bu. Kansas CityMay wheat fell 12¼¢ and closed at $5.63¼ per bu. MinneapolisMaywheat dropped 7¼¢ and closed at $6.27½ per bu. May soybeans shed 11¾¢ to close at $11.74 per bu. May soybean meal was down $5.10 to close at $328.30 per ton. May soybean oil added 0.36¢ to close at 48.6¢ a lb.
US crude oil prices were higher again Tuesday, pushing the Brent benchmark above $89 a bu for the first time since October. Support came from escalating Middle East conflict and a Ukrainian drone strike on one of Russia’s biggest refineries. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added $1.44 to close at $85.15 per barrel.
The US dollar index closed lower Tuesday.
US goldfutures jumped higher Tuesday. The April contract added $24.50 to close at $2,261 per oz.
US equity markets closed lower Tuesday, pressured by climbing bond yields, rising crude oil prices and widening doubts that the Federal Reserve fully contained inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 396.61 points, or 1%, to close at 39,170.24. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 37.96 points, or 0.72%, to close at 5,205.81. The Nasdaq Composite fell 156.38 points, or 0.95%, to close at 16,240.45.
In recent days, we have witnessed the scene of domestic coffee prices soaring rapidly, continuously breaking decades-old records to reach a new peak of nearly 105,000 VND/kg. The price level hasn’t stopped here but is forecasted to continue rising in the future. High prices combined with a shortage of supply have pushed many coffee businesses onto the path of losses. The equation to escape losses has become more difficult and urgent than ever.
Coffee prices continue to soar
As of April 9, 2024, coffee prices are ranging between 104,000 and 104,500 VND/kg (See today’s coffee prices in each locality at Today’s coffee prices, view today’s accurate coffee prices). The beginning of April marks the peak period of the dry season in the Central Highlands provinces, with this year’s drought forecasted to be more severe than in previous years. Water levels and flows in rivers and streams are gradually decreasing and maintained below-average levels for many years. Thousands of hectares of crops are withering due to water shortages. The scarce rainfall, dry conditions, and water shortages during the dry months of 2024 will significantly impact the production activities and livelihoods of the people. Coffee production, which is already low, is further expected to decrease this year. Concerns about the supply have driven coffee prices to unprecedented levels.
Many coffee businesses are seeking ways to escape losses
The sudden surge in coffee prices has caught many businesses off guard because contracts are usually signed when coffee prices are low, without much fluctuation as seen currently. Businesses are forced to fulfill contracts they have already signed in a situation where there is no coffee to buy and prices are “skyrocketing.”
Many businesses are struggling to fulfill previously signed contracts
According to Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of Phuc Sinh Group – one of the leading coffee export companies in Vietnam, in the first three months of the season, export companies, foreign traders, and FDI often sell up to 50% of their production in advance and buy during the season. However, companies sell at low prices in advance, and when companies buy, coffee prices are continuously pushed up. In November 2023, prices ranged from 59,000 to 60,000 VND/kg, then in December 2023, it was 62,000 VND/kg and 69,000 VND/kg. By January 2024, it was 70,000 VND/kg and 82,000 VND/kg by early March, reaching 86,000 VND/kg and up to 94,500 VND/kg.
For each ton of coffee, companies have to bear losses of tens of millions of VND, while coffee contracts range from hundreds to thousands of tons. The level of damage is extremely high, incalculable, causing many small and medium-sized enterprises unable to sustain themselves.
Traders also face many risks when buying from farmers, and when farmers see high prices and refuse to deliver the goods they have signed contracts for, traders incur significant losses or bankruptcy, and they also lack financial resources to deliver to export companies or foreign companies for the contracts they have signed. Many exporters are demanding thousands or tens of thousands of tons they have already bought or even received deposits for but have not been delivered, facing mounting difficulties.
As manufacturing enterprises, they face even more difficulties such as low capital turnover. They have to increase various expenses, such as production costs, labor costs, bank loan interest costs, transportation costs, even double compared to traders, machinery depreciation costs, opportunity costs,…
What are coffee businesses doing to address immediate challenges?
A volatile market is the time when businesses need to change their procurement plans and strategies. To ensure the supply from farmers, businesses may have intensified their cooperation with farmers by investing in fertilizers, providing them with loans to cover living expenses as well as cultivation costs. By applying this method, Bao Anh company still ensures a supply of 10,000 tons per year for Vinh Hiep each year and partially meets the demand for other leading export businesses in Vietnam amid the broken coffee supply chain.
The surge in prices coupled with the risk of not being able to collect goods has put many businesses, especially small and medium-sized ones, in a dilemma. Supply chain integration is seen as a useful solution to help businesses overcome this situation.
Stay tuned to the News section for more useful information!
The price of platinum opened at $984.87 per ounce, as of 9 a.m. That’s up 4.12% from the previous day and down 0.29% from the beginning of the year.
The lowest trading price within the last day: $954.39 per ounce. The highest platinum spot price in the last 24 hours: $986.39 per ounce.
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Platinum spot price
Platinum price chart
The chart below shows how the spot price of platinum is trending over the year.
Year to date, platinum is down 0.29%, as of 9 a.m. The 52-week high reached $1,135.49 on April 21, 2023, and the 52-week low dropped to $843.15 on Nov. 10, 2023.
The precious, silvery-colored metal is priced in U.S. dollars. This means that the fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar can impact its price.
The price of XPT/USD reflects the value of one ounce of platinum in U.S. dollars, and it is traded like traditional currency pairs. Because platinum trades occur globally, investors can also track the spot price of platinum in other currencies, such as XPT/EUR for euros and XPT/GBP for British pounds.
Factors that can influence the price of platinum include changes in demand, geopolitical events and tensions in major platinum-producing countries. Of course, investor opinion and speculation can also affect prices.
Precious metals spot prices
Platinum is one of four main precious metals investors can trade via physical bullion, exchange-traded products or futures contracts. Gold, silver and palladium spot prices are also updated 24/7 in various currencies.
Platinum vs. gold price
Currently, platinum trades at $984.87 per ounce, as of 9 a.m., compared to gold, which trades at $2,349.44 per ounce. Year to date, platinum prices are down by 0.29% and gold prices are up by 13.70%.
“Historically, platinum has often been more expensive than gold due to its relative scarcity and unique properties. However, the price of platinum can fluctuate in response to changing market conditions,” said John Bergquist, president of Elysium Financial.
Political instability and supply disruptions in major platinum-producing regions like South Africa and Russia affect prices.
The silvery metal also tends to be a less reliable store of value than gold.
While historically, platinum has been pricier than gold, that flip-flopped briefly in August 2011. When looking at the gold-to-platinum price ratio, platinum was priced above gold from January 2013 until December 2014. Since then, gold has more than doubled its value compared to platinum prices.
Platinum price history
Like any metal, the price of platinum can be volatile. Various factors affect it, the most significant being supply and demand dynamics. Other factors, such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in industrial and investment demand, can also impact the price of platinum.
At the start of the new millennium, the precious metal’s spot price was around $420. Fast-forward over 20 years, and the current price of platinum has more than doubled.
The spot price soared to new heights, trading in February 2008 at around $2,200 per troy ounce. In November of that year, the price returned to less than $1,000.
Platinum’s spot price has fluctuated between around $800 to $1,400 for the past decade, hovering around the $1,000 threshold on average.
Platinum prices today remain historically low. Prices dropped as low as $623.50 in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. While prices have recovered, platinum is nowhere near its all-time high of $2,213.20, set on March 3, 2008.
Platinum futures
Futures contracts let investors speculate on the future price movements of an underlying asset like platinum.
These financial contracts represent an agreement between two parties to trade a set amount of platinum at a specified price at a future date. They can be settled by exchanging the physical commodity or cash in place of the commodity.
Futures contracts differ from spot prices in that futures contracts establish a future price whereas spot prices are for immediate delivery. These contracts can be fulfilled by trading the physical commodity or exchanging cash in place of the underlying asset. They are usually traded through an exchange.
Platinum as an investment
The automotive industry creates the highest demand for platinum. Platinum is a key component in manufacturing catalytic converters, which are responsible for reducing vehicle emissions.
In addition to the automotive industry, platinum is widely used in the industrial industry to create medical products, nitric acid and glass. As the demand for these products rises, so does the price of platinum.
It is anticipated that platinum will play an essential role in the development of hydrogen technology. Platinum is used to produce carbon-free hydrogen from renewable energy.
“If hydrogen-based power meets expectations in the coming decade, then one could expect a material demand tailwind in platinum,” said Stash Graham, managing director of Graham Capital Wealth Management.
Precious metals such as platinum, gold and silver have long been used to diversify an investment portfolio.
When choosing investments, it is crucial to consider potential drawbacks. While there may be an increase in the demand for platinum, other factors may throw a wrench in the investment benefits.
When considering an investment, it is essential to consider your current holdings and individual financial goals.
Platinum is rarer than both silver and gold, which could make it attractive to investors seeking a scarce metal. This practice helps protect other holdings, such as stocks, in an economic downturn. Investing in platinum can help balance inflation and economic uncertainties.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
The highest platinum price was $2,213 on March 3, 2008. This notable high can be attributed to critical supply issues in South Africa, the world’s largest platinum producer. Both geopolitical and economic factors played a role in this price hike during the recession.
The London Bullion Market Association is responsible for price auctions of platinum and other industrial metals.
Aussie shares set to rise again after a modest tick up on Wall Street
Gold price hit a new high
Bank of America’s bullish predictions on gold and copper prices
Aussie shares are set to rise again on Wednesday after Wall Street ticked up modestly. At 8am AEDT, the ASX 200 index futures contract was pointing up by +0.4%.
Overnight, the S&P 500 rose by +0.14%, the blue chips Dow Jones index was down by -0.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed by +0.32%.
US treasury yields dropped -5bp from a four-month high ahead of the US inflation report tonight, suggesting traders are positioning themselves for a soft print.
Gold stocks will be in focus today after the bullion price touched briefly above US$2,380 an ounce, extending its rally to hit a new record.
To stocks, the start of the US Q1 earnings season gets underway in earnest on Friday, which will provide the next catalyst for the market.
Nvidia’s shares fell nearly -2% after Intel revealed a new version of its AI chip at its Vision event. Intel’s shares rose +1%.
Moderna jumped by +6% to a three-month high after the company revealed positive responses in its early-stage cancer vaccine developed with Merck.
Alphabet lifted 1.3% to a one-year high after announcing a new video-creation app, Google Vids, which also utilises AI.
Meanwhile, respected market commentator Mohamed El-Erian said Europe’s ECB could cut rates faster than the Fed Reserve.
“The ECB is going to signal quite strongly that June will be when they cut, something the Fed will not do,” El-Erian said, adding that USD currency could trade at par with the EUR when that happens.
Gold and copper on bullish trajectory
The price of gold has risen over the past eight trading sessions, hitting a fresh record overnight.
At the time of writing, gold is trading at US$2,351.60 an ounce.
A note from Bank of America’s analysts say they project gold prices to jump to US$3,000 per ounce by 2025, buoyed by strong demand from central banks. The Chinese central bank, in particular, has amassed over 200 tonnes of the yellow metal in 2023 alone.
“And if the Fed ultimately starts cutting rates, investors should return to the market, also offsetting potentially lower Chinese investment demand as sentiment there improves and the economy accelerates.
“We had previously proposed a US$2,400/oz price estimate if the Fed cut rates in 1Q24; we now raise that and see gold rallying to US$3,000/oz by 2025,” said BoA’s note.
BoA is also sounding the alarm on a potential copper supply crisis, predicting that copper prices are expected to average US$10,750 per tonne in 2025, and US$12,000 per tonne in 2026 (copper currently trades at around US$9,411 per tonne).
“Tight copper mine supply is increasingly constraining refined production; the much-discussed lack of mine projects is finally starting to bite,” said BoA.
In other markets …
Gold price was up +0.53% to US$2,352.25 an ounce.
Oil prices came off another -1.3%, with Brent now trading at US$89.45 a barrel.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 5bp (bond prices higher) to 4.37%.
Iron ore 62% fe climbed further by +1.6% to US$104.33 a tonne.
The Aussie dollar lifted by +0.4% to US66.28.
Bitcoin meanwhile slumped -3.5% in the last 24 hours to US$69,236.
5 ASX small caps to watch today
Kinatico (ASX:KYP) During Q3FY24, Kinatico earned $2.5m in SaaS revenue, an increase of 73% on pcp. Annualised SaaS revenue is now more than $10m. SaaS revenue for the quarter comprised 36% of Kinatico’s total Q3 revenue of $7.0m, an increase of 0.5% on pcp.
Wildcat Resources (ASX:WC8) Exploration drilling beneath the Leia deposit has discovered a thick lithium mineralised repetition named the “Luke Pegmatite”, with best intercepts of: 41.0m @ 1.0% Li2O from 267m. Meanwhile diamond drilling at Leia continues to return impressive new results including: 68.0m @ 1.4% Li2O from 337m.
Neurotech (ASX:NTI) Nurotech announced the 54th and final patient has completed their last visit for the Phase II/III NTIASD2 clinical trial for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The trial recruited patients aged 8-17 (inclusive) with Level 2 (requiring substantial support) and Level 3 (requiring very substantial support) autism, who have now completed eight weeks of daily NTI164 treatment (the randomisation period of the trial).
Dart Mining (ASX:DTM) Dart provided an update on field activities across the Dorchap Lithium Project in Northeast Victoria. Field reconnaissance of pegmatite targets highlighted by the LiDAR survey has been completed, with initial results received. Highlights include: Sample 70847 – 2m @ 2.35% Li2O – Boones North Dyke, and Sample 70840 – 5m @ 2.00% Li2O – Boones North Dyke.
Argenica Therapeutics (ASX:AGN) Argenica has successfully dosed five patients in its acute ischaemic stroke Phase 2 clinical trial, representing the first cohort of patients to be reviewed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB), highlighting a promising early recruitment response to date. The patients, who presented to both the Royal Melbourne Hospital and Princess Alexandra Hospital emergency departments, were enrolled into the trial following meeting the inclusion criteria: a confirmed diagnosis of an acute ischaemic stoke caused by a large vessel occlusion (LVO) and were eligible for mechanical thrombectomy.
At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Neurotech is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.
Crude oil futures closed with a second straight loss Tuesday, taking a sliver of profits after hitting nearly six-month highs sparked by geopolitical risks and tight supply.
Talks for a ceasefire in the Gaza war continued, but oil’s losses were limited following reports that Israel and Hamas are still far from an agreement.
The bank said it sees tightness in Q2 and Q3 with OPEC supply restraints, some downside to Russia production, and a seasonal upswing in demand ahead.
Its assessment of market fundamentals remains the same, but “when it comes to geopolitical risk, however, even small probabilities can add several dollars to oil prices,” according to Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats.
Spot crude could hit $100/bbl this year if OPEC+ maintains its production discipline and continues to withhold crude from the global markets, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said.
In a supply constrained market with oil consumption set to grow by 1.9M bbl/day in 2024, a similar level to last year, oil at “$80-$100 feels a sensible range for the market given the OPEC control of inventories around the world,” Hardy told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland.
Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for May delivery finished -1.4% to $85.23/bbl, and front-month June Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed -1% to $89.42/bbl.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its average price estimate for Brent crude this year to $89/bbl from $87, which it said “reflects our expectation of strong global oil inventory draws during this quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks,” adding that it forecasts an average $90/bbl for Brent in Q2.
Extended OPEC+ output cuts “add to upward price pressure right at a time of the year when oil demand typically increases because of the spring and summer driving seasons in the Northern Hemisphere,” the EIA said.
Oil prices have climbed in recent weeks, spurred by concerns over supplies and geopolitical risks, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Analysts say the momentum could carry prices higher.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, has risen more than 20 percent since mid-December. It has jumped more than 10 percent over the past month alone, to around $90 per barrel. “The sentiment is really bullish,” said Viktor Katona, an analyst at Kpler, a commodities research firm.
Rising oil prices could make efforts by central banks to reduce inflation more challenging. In the United States, higher gasoline prices during the summer driving season would also be unwelcome for the Biden administration, which faces a difficult election in November. The average price at the pump has risen about 50 cents per gallon since early January, to around $3.70, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Market watchers note that a short-term retreat in prices, after such a rapid rise, is also possible. The oil price also remains below the peaks reached in 2022, when prices jumped well above $100 a barrel.
In 2023, strong growth in crude output from the United States, the world’s largest oil producer, and other countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries helped reassure markets that there would be enough oil to slake demand. Prices remained subdued for much of the year despite the threats posed by geopolitical tensions. Initially, markets largely shrugged off the risks posed by the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
But 2024 looks like a very different year. Demand has been stronger than some analysts expected. And a series of potentially disruptive events — along with production cuts by Saudi Arabia and its allies — have raised worries of a potential supply squeeze.
The most unsettling development was the killing of a group of Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders in an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, on April 1. Iran pledged to retaliate, raising fears that its actions could pull key exporters in the Persian Gulf into the conflict, which began with the Hamas attack on Israel in October.
“That’s always been the fear since Oct. 7, the direct confrontation between Iran, the U.S. and Israel,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The Middle East conflict has had little effect on oil supplies so far, Mr. Burkhard said, but markets will be on edge until they see how the face-off between Israel and Iran plays out.
The continuing effort by the group of oil producers known as OPEC Plus to limit oil supplies adds to the edginess. Largely orchestrated by Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, these production trims are removing around five million barrels a day, or potentially around 5 percent of supply, from the market.
There is always skepticism about whether OPEC will stick to its commitments, but it is dawning on the markets that these cuts may not be relaxed anytime soon unless prices rise substantially. “We don’t expect a formal increase out of OPEC Plus unless prices are above $100” a barrel, Mr. Burkhard said.
Instead, the Saudi-led group has focused on signaling its resolve. In March, several members announced the extension of production cuts through June. To drive the point home, OPEC Plus said in a news release on April 1 that two of its members, Iraq and Kazakhstan, had agreed to “compensate for overproduction.”
The Middle East is not the only potential source of disruption for oil markets. Russia has been making slow gains in its war with Ukraine, while Kyiv has figured out how to use drones and missiles to inflict significant damage on Russian oil infrastructure, at least temporarily reducing Russia’s ability to produce products like diesel and gasoline.
Ukraine’s aim is apparently to try to reduce the revenue Russia has available to fund the war, but the impact could be felt in world petroleum markets. Knocking out plants “tightens up” the global trade in energy products, said David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, a commodities research firm. “That is helping juice up crude prices as well.”
Analysts say a further lift may come in the summer, when seasonal demand is typically high as people take to cars and planes for vacation trips.
Tensions could come to a head in early June when the ministers from OPEC Plus plan to gather in Vienna to decide how much oil to put into the market. Some members of the group may want to see an increase in production, but the Saudis are likely to resist, analysts say.
Richard Bronze, the head of Energy Aspects, a research firm, said, “The Saudis are setting their policy on what they think is right for the oil market and their budget, and there is very little leverage that Washington has at present to get them to consider loosening.”
FXEmpire.com – Natural gas closed above its 50-Day MA for the first time since mid-January on Monday. That is a sign of strength that should see demand increase in the coming days. A teaser occurred today as natural gas rallied above the recent 1.91 minor swing high before encountering resistance at the day’s high of 1.92. An intraday selloff followed back to the lows of the day. Where it closes relative to the day’s range should provide a clue as to current sentiment.
Advance Continues Following 50-Day MA Breakout
There was minor confirmation of strength since the breakout above the 50-Day MA, as the 8-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day today for the first time since mid-January, today. Also, yesterday the 20-Day MA was successfully tested as support for the first time since the price of natural gas rallied back above the 20-Day line on April 1.
That cleared the way for further strengthening, which we saw yesterday and then again today. What happens next will be key though as a failed breakout is always possible. A second daily close above the 50-Day line today would dampen that possibility. Then, we need to see signs of further strengthening if natural gas is going to have a chance at reaching higher targets.
Potential Double Bottom Setup
A rally above the 2.01 (B) swing high will trigger a breakout of a double bottom bullish reversal pattern and a continuation of the current developing uptrend. At that point there would be a higher swing high that would follow the recent higher swing low (C). The first identified target from current levels is the completion of a small rising ABCD pattern at 2.08.
At that price the CD leg of the advance will match the price appreciation seen in the first leg up, marked A to B. Once there is price symmetry a potential resistance zone has been reached. There are also interim price targets on the way up to the double bottom target of 2.50.
Higher Targets
The consolidation high following the large gap down in late-January is at 2.17. However, the more notable 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2.24. That price level takes on a somewhat greater significance since it is also match with prior support at the December swing low.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
An industry leader in Melbourne has called on Australian cafes to “be brave” and boost their coffee prices or risk closing their doors.
Sky News host James Macpherson says the cost of living crisis is about to get worse as the price of your morning coffee is “about to go up”.
St Ali coffee roasters chief executive, Lachlan Ward, told the Herald Sun on Tuesday cafes need to “be brave and adjust up” or risk closing their doors.
“The way we are pricing coffee in Australia is not sustainable,” Mr Ward said.
“Unless Australian cafes start adjusting prices up and charging a fair price for what we are making, the independent cafe won’t exist in the future.”
A survey conducted by The Conversation last month of specialty venues across Australia’s capital cities found the average price of a small takeaway flat white is $4.78.
But, Mr Ward said, Aussies should be paying a minimum $5.50 for the beverage (at St Ali’s South Melbourne outpost, the dine-in cost of a regular flat white is $6.50).
“We have incredible operators and beautiful cafes closing down weekly, we can’t look at cutting prices. Cutting isn’t good for any business,” he said.
‘The way we are pricing coffee in Australia is not sustainable.’ Picture: Linda Higginson
St Ali chief executive Lachlan Ward. Picture: Facebook
Given our national penchant for whinging about coffee prices, Mr Ward’s comments, unsurprisingly, proved divisive among consumers.
One man deemed his remarks “idiotic”, while some said they reflected why they now get their caffeine fix at home.
“LOL! I’m sure it’s delicious but when you grab a coffee from 7/11 or Maccas for change (for the few of us that still use coins) how long do you expect to stay in business? People are cutting costs wherever they can but clearly in your fantasy land you believe they will pay a fortune for your coffee. Good luck with that!” another reader wrote in to the Herald Sun.
One of the key factors keeping coffee prices low in Australia is ‘consumer expectation’. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Nicki Connolly
A third said: “When having a daily coffee becomes a financial consideration rather than a casual enjoyment (due to cost) then sales will drop off quickly – this line is fast approaching.”
“Ordinary middle class people are being squeezed out of any luxuries by elites, government taxes and social engineering,” another complained.
“Consumers will determine the market price. Charge what you want. People will either buy it or not. But don’t complain when you price yourself out of the market.”
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Others, however, said the rising price is par for the course given “costs for cafes to make great coffee have risen exponentially”.
“Cafes are the canary in the coal mine. I don’t think the general population understand the financial squeeze most are under, and they are going broke in record numbers,” one pointed out.
As adjunct senior researcher at the University of South Australia, Emma Felton, wrote for The Conversation, “given the quality of our coffee and its global reputation, it shouldn’t surprise us if we’re soon asked to pay a little bit more for our daily brew”.
“By international standards, Australian coffee prices are low. No one wants to pay more for essentials, least of all right now. But our independent cafes are struggling,” she said.
“By not valuing coffee properly, we risk losing the internationally renowned coffee culture we’ve worked so hard to create, and the phenomenal quality of cup we enjoy.”
Data compiled by The Conversation found the average price of a small takeaway flat white at specialty venues is $4.78. Picture: The Conversation
One of the key factors keeping coffee prices low in Australia, Dr Felton said, is “consumer expectation”.
“For many people coffee is a fundamental part of everyday life, a marker of liveability. Unlike wine or other alcohol, coffee is not considered a luxury or even a treat, where one might expect to pay a little more, or reduce consumption when times are economically tough. We anchor on familiar prices,” she said.
“Because of this, it really hurts cafe owners to put their prices up. In touch with their customer base almost every day, they’re acutely aware of how much inflation can hurt … But specialty cafes face much higher operating costs, and when they’re next to a commodity-grade competitor, customers are typically unwillingly to pay the difference.”
Melbourne Coffee Academy director Charles Skadiang echoed the sentiment in a March interview with Yahoo Finance, pointing to the cost of beer in Australia increasing with indexation.
Mr Skadiang noted there’s far more skill involved in producing a high-quality coffee than pouring a pint.
“The thought of paying $7 for a cup of coffee is outrageous for a lot of people,” he said.
“But the amount of work that goes into it, you’ve got a skilled barista to train someone up to make a great coffee, it takes a lot of time.”
