Bottom of Large Triangle Consolidation May Offer Support

The lower uptrend line will soon converge with the 78.6% retracement level presenting a more formidable potential support zone. Also, monthly support (daily swing low) from February was 71.38. It can be combined with the other price levels mentioned above to generate a larger support zone from 72.12 to 71.38. Notice that February’s swing low began an accelerated rally that peaked at 87.89 in April. Maybe a test of the February support zone will complete a round trip and set the stage for the next advance. However, a decline below 71.38 followed by further weakness will trigger a breakdown from the symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.

Moving averages are showing turning bearish. Recently, the short-term 20-Day MA fell back below the 200-Day MA, and it continues to point down. The 50-Day MA has also begun to turn down. If it crosses below the 200-Day line, another bearish signal will be generated.

Rise Above Today’s High Will Show Strength, But Sustainability Questionable

On the upside, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to allow for a day or a few to occur to see how the market in crude develops. There are no current signs that a spike bullish reversal may be coming soon. An advance above today’s high of 74.39 will provide the next sign of strength. But, given the potential for a test of support at the bottom of the triangle and the lack of buying signs so far, it may not be sustainable just yet.

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