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8 07, 2026

XAG/USD Forecast: Holds bearish flag support near mid-$59.00s

By |2026-07-08T15:43:11+03:00July 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a negative bias for the third straight day and hovers around the $59.80 region during the Asian session on Wednesday. The white metal, however, defends a support marked by the lower boundary of a short-term descending channel, around mid-$59.00s or the weekly low, touched on Tuesday.

Looking at the broader picture, the downward-sloping channel constitutes the formation of a bearish flag against the backdrop of the recent decline. Moreover, the recent repeated failures near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart suggest that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD pair is to the downside.

Adding to this, the latest Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading at -0.33 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44.16 hint at the risk of further downside within the range. However, a convincing break below the channel support is needed to reaffirm the negative bias and back the case for any further depreciation.

The XAG/USD might then weaken below the $59.00 mark, towards testing the next relevant support near the $58.35-$58.30 zone and the $58.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $57.25 region en route to the $57.00 mark and the year-to-date low, around the $55.70 area, touched in June.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-period SMA at $62.32, with a break above exposing the upper channel line at $64.21 as the next hurdle. Only a sustained move over these barriers would ease current bearish pressure and pave the way for some meaningful upside in the near term.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.



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8 07, 2026

The GBPJPY remains positive– Forecast today – 8-7-2026

By |2026-07-08T11:56:06+03:00July 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

 

Copper price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the contradiction of the main indicators against holding below $6.3000 barrier, the price needs to settle below $5.9500 level, reinforcing the chances of targeting the corrective stations, which might begin at $5.8200 and $5.7100.

 

Surpassing the barrier will cancel the corrective scenario, to open the way for recording clear gains by its rally towards $5.4300 initially, to attempt to surpass $6.5200, to confirm the continuation of the positivity in the upcoming trading.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.2600

 

Trend forecast: Bearish



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8 07, 2026

Coffee price today 8. 7: Domestic price decreased by 2,200 VND/kg

By |2026-07-08T11:42:11+03:00July 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market decreased sharply after the previous surge. The average price was recorded at 94,800 VND/kg, down 2,100 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 2,000 VND/kg, down to 94,700 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices also decreased by 2,000 VND/kg, reaching 94,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today decreased by 1,900 VND/kg, down to 94,300 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a purchase price of 94,800 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate from 94. 300-94. 800 VND/kg. The gap between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 500 VND/kg.

Despite a sharp decrease, the domestic coffee price level is still higher than the price range at the beginning of July. This development shows that the market is adjusting after a hot increase.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,076 VND/USD, an increase of 4 VND.

World coffee prices

World coffee prices simultaneously fell sharply in the most recent trading session, after a shock increase in the previous session.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 172 USD/ton, equivalent to 4.25%, to 3,872 USD/ton.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 4,121 USD/ton but then decreased sharply, sometimes down to 3,846 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 18,153 lots.

Robusta for November 2026 delivery fell 168 USD/ton, equivalent to 4.19%, to 3,839 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms decreased by 168 USD/ton and 169 USD/ton respectively, to 3,806 USD/ton and 3.773 USD/ton.

The July 2026 Robusta contract decreased by 172 USD/ton, to 3,892 USD/ton. However, this term is close to maturity, so the trading volume is low; the September contract reflects the market trend more clearly.

On the New York exchange, Arabica fell very sharply. September 2026 Arabica futures fell 32.35 US cents/lb, equivalent to 9.24%, to 317.60 US cents/lb.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 350.00 US cents/lb but then reversed sharply, sometimes falling back to 315.40 US cents/lb.

Arabica December 2026 futures fell 30.40 US cents/lb, or 9.06%, to 305.00 US cents/lb.

March and May 2027 terms decreased by 29.50 US cents/lb and 28.95 US cents/lb respectively, to 300.25 US cents/lb and 299.15 US cents/lb.

Coffee price assessment

According to data from Barchart, coffee prices fell sharply on Tuesday as the market returned some of the shocking increase of the first session of the week.

After coffee prices rose too quickly to a high level, the market appeared pressure to take profits and liquidate buy positions. Barchart believes that the move to raise margin requirements for coffee futures contract transactions by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also increased selling pressure.

However, the factors supporting coffee prices have not disappeared. A report by consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil’s 2026-2027 coffee harvest has only completed 52% as of July 1, lower than the 60% level in the same period last year and the 5-year average of 55%.

Slow harvest progress increases concerns that spot supply will be tightened in the short term. Previously, heavy rains in Brazil have repeatedly disrupted coffee harvesting, transportation and drying operations.

However, Somar Meteorologia said that Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s largest coffee growing region, did not record rain in the week ending July 5. This shows that weather risks need to be assessed by production region.

Standard Arabica coffee inventories on the US Intercontinental Exchange continued to decrease, down to 362,466 bags. This is the lowest area in more than 2 years, continuing to create support for prices after the adjustment.

Conversely, Robusta inventories on the European Intercontinental Exchange increased to 4,183 lots, the highest level in about 3 and a half months. The volume of goods meeting recovery standards is one of the factors putting pressure on Robusta prices.

El Niño risk is still being monitored by businesses. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assesses that El Niño is likely to strengthen in the 2026-2027 winter of the Northern Hemisphere.

El Niño could change rainfall in Brazil during the coffee flowering period in September and October, and also affect Robusta production conditions in some Asian countries.

In terms of pressure, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) still forecasts Brazil to have a large coffee crop in the 2026-2027 crop year. Rabobank of the Netherlands also raised its global Arabica surplus forecast for the 2026-2027 crop year from 7 million bags to 9.5 million bags.

Regarding Robusta, the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance) of our country said that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 6 months of 2026 increased compared to the same period. Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta producer, so increased supply is still a factor that can curb price increases in the medium term.





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8 07, 2026

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above confluence around 185.00, moving averages

By |2026-07-08T07:54:59+03:00July 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

EUR/JPY pares its recent losses from the previous day, trading around 185.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is retaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above the Volume-weighted Average Price (VWAP) and a cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA acting as nearby trend support.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.81 sits just above its midline, hinting at steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum while price remains supported by these underlying levels.

Daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that both buyers and sellers are growing increasingly aggressive as they compress the price into a narrowing range. This tight consolidation reflects a temporary balance of power, with neither side establishing clear control over the market’s direction just yet.

The initial barrier lies at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.80. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the VWAP at 185.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.95 and the nine-day EMA at 184.93. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.02% 0.02% 0.15% -0.03% -0.22% -0.49% 0.01%
EUR 0.02% 0.05% 0.19% -0.01% -0.19% -0.47% 0.04%
GBP -0.02% -0.05% 0.13% -0.05% -0.25% -0.51% -0.03%
JPY -0.15% -0.19% -0.13% -0.18% -0.35% -0.64% -0.15%
CAD 0.03% 0.00% 0.05% 0.18% -0.18% -0.47% 0.03%
AUD 0.22% 0.19% 0.25% 0.35% 0.18% -0.28% 0.19%
NZD 0.49% 0.47% 0.51% 0.64% 0.47% 0.28% 0.49%
CHF -0.01% -0.04% 0.03% 0.15% -0.03% -0.19% -0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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8 07, 2026

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: US-Iran Situation Worsens, Oil Prices Expected to Rise to $80

By |2026-07-08T07:41:05+03:00July 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


TradingKey – As of the Asian session on July 8, WTI ( USOIL) crude oil prices rose to around $72, rebounding significantly from previous trading sessions. From a technical perspective, oil prices had previously fallen below $70 due to expectations of US-Iran negotiations, the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and pressure from OPEC+ production increases. However, as the attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz escalated and the US resumed military actions and sanctions against Iran, the market quickly priced back in the Middle East supply risk premium, driving a continuous rebound in WTI.

From a fundamental perspective, the core driver of today’s WTI crude oil rally stems from the re-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Previously, the market was trading on a de-escalation logic—expecting progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the recovery of Gulf shipping, and the potential return of Iranian crude to Asian markets—which had put under pressure on oil prices. However, the latest developments indicate that this expectation of de-escalation is being shattered.

According to reports, several commercial vessels were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker. Since the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical transit chokepoints for crude oil and liquefied natural gas, the attacks on these vessels immediately altered the market’s assessment of supply security.

The U.S. subsequently took tougher action. The Trump administration launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets and revoked waivers that previously allowed Iran to sell a limited amount of crude oil. The impact of this shift on oil prices was highly direct: on one hand, the military action means the ceasefire and negotiation framework between the U.S. and Iran is at risk of collapse; on the other hand, the revocation of Iran’s crude export waivers weakened market expectations regarding the return of Iranian supply.

Iran, meanwhile, denied responsibility for the attacks on the vessels and accused the U.S. of violating previous agreements. Iranian officials stated that the renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and the revocation of oil sale waivers disrupted existing understandings, and warned of potential countermeasures. For the market, Iran’s response means the risk of further escalation remains. If Iran takes retaliatory action or if the U.S. continues to expand its strikes, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz could rise further, leaving room for oil prices to push higher.

WTI crude oil daily chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily chart of WTI crude oil, influenced by yesterday’s escalation of the US-Iran conflict, oil prices surged during the session, closing with a gain of 5.22% and successfully reclaiming the $70 mark. This reversed the recent sluggish state of bulls in the crude oil market and significantly bolstered the market’s buying momentum.

From the moving average perspective, oil prices successfully broke through the resistance of both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages yesterday. The market’s bullish momentum has been further strengthened, and oil prices are expected to continue their technical corrective rebound in the short term.

Currently, as oil prices reclaim the $70 level, upside potential has opened up. The primary target for the rally will be to test the $75 resistance level. If oil prices can breakout strongly and consolidate above $75, they are expected to test the $80 mark in the short term.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.





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8 07, 2026

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slips as Middle East Tensions Lift the US Dollar

By |2026-07-08T03:54:13+03:00July 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


– Written by

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Tuesday, slipping back after striking a near three-week high overnight, as a deterioration in risk appetite pressured the pairing.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3371, down from an overnight peak of $1.3398.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Tuesday, recouping part of Monday evening’s losses, as renewed Middle East tensions pushed investors towards safer assets.

Market sentiment weakened after two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly hit by projectiles overnight, including a Qatari LNG tanker.

Washington has accused Iran of carrying out the strikes, with the US expected to respond by targeting Iranian sites.

The latest flare-up in geopolitical risk prompted a more defensive mood across global markets, lifting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

The Pound (GBP) held up relatively well on Tuesday, with Sterling avoiding sharper losses despite a quiet UK data calendar.

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GBP has found support in recent sessions as domestic political uncertainty continues to ease. Following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, several potential challengers have reportedly backed frontrunner Andy Burnham.

Markets have responded positively to the prospect of a relatively orderly handover, with months of speculation over Starmer’s position and fears of a damaging leadership contest now seemingly fading. Burnham is widely expected to become Prime Minister without a contest, while keeping the government’s existing fiscal rules in place.

This helped the Pound resist steeper losses against the US Dollar, even as a risk-averse market mood weighed on wider sentiment.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Could Fed Minutes Lift the US Dollar?

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday evening and could drive movement in the US Dollar. If the minutes point to support among policymakers for further interest rate rises, the ‘Greenback’ may strengthen.

Market risk sentiment could also shape the GBP/USD exchange rate. Any further escalation in the Middle East may dampen appetite for risk, potentially boosting the safe-haven US Dollar while weighing on the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.

Meanwhile, Sterling may continue to draw some support from the fading political risk premium that had previously weighed on GBP. However, with Labour leadership nominations set to open on Thursday, the Pound could struggle to find much upside.

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7 07, 2026

EUR/USD Analysis 07/07: Interest Rate Outlook Continues

By |2026-07-07T23:53:09+03:00July 7, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

  • Overall Trend: Bearish in the medium term, with temporary corrective recovery attempts.

  • Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1415 – 1.1380 – 1.1300

  • Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1480 – 1.1530 – 1.1600

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

  • Buy scenario (with corrective bounce): from the support level of 1.1370, targeting 1.1500, with a stop loss activated below 1.1320.

  • Sell scenario (with the main trend): from the resistance level of 1.1500, targeting 1.1400, with a stop-loss order placed above 1.1560.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The EUR/USD pair continues to move under selling pressure amid the ongoing dominance of the bearish trend on the technical front, despite the limited recovery attempts witnessed during recent sessions.

Technical indicators suggest that any current rallies are still classified as corrective movements, unless the pair manages to break through key resistance levels and regain upward momentum. Across the best trading platforms, the Euro-Dollar rate settled around the 1.1441 level at the time of writing this analysis.

According to the general technical outlook, the broader trend for the EUR/USD pair still leans downward over the medium and long term. Meanwhile, the support level of 1.1325, which is the low recorded during June, remains the most prominent support level monitored by traders.

The performance of the EUR/USD price at the beginning of the trading week indicates continuing selling pressures as prices approach influential technical resistance levels. The daily timeframe chart shows that the 21-day Moving Average (MA) continues to act as strong dynamic resistance—a level that has successfully capped upward attempts since mid-May, reinforcing the sellers’ continued control over market price action.

As long as the price settles below the 21-day Moving Average, the most likely scenario remains a resumption of the decline to retest the June low at 1.1325, which represents the most prominent technical target during July.

Conversely, a successful breakout and daily close above the 21-day Moving Average by the currency pair could provide the first signal of fading bearish momentum. However, this development would not be enough to change the general trend as long as the price moves below the 100-day Moving Average and the downward trendline extending from the January peaks.

Therefore, any upward waves at the current time remain merely corrective rebounds rather than the start of a new uptrend.

Regarding momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving below 50, reflecting continued negative momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory despite the weakening downward momentum. This suggests the possibility of limited bounces before the main trend resumes.

According to fundamental analysis, Euro trading via trusted brokerage platforms received limited support after the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone improved during July. It is rising from -13.4 to -3.1 to record its third consecutive monthly improvement. Additionally, the Current Situation Assessment Index improved from -20.0 to -14.8, while the Future Expectations Index jumped from -6.5 to 9.3, returning to positive territory for the first time in several months, reflecting growing optimism regarding the European economy.

Despite the positive nature of these figures, their impact on the Euro remained limited, as they did not lead to a tangible rise in European bond yields.

On the monetary policy front in the Eurozone, financial markets indicate a decline in the likelihood of the European Central Bank taking further steps to tighten monetary policy during the remainder of 2026, especially after the release of inflation data that fell short of expectations.

The easing of concerns related to inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions has also contributed to a reduction in market bets on any further interest rate hikes. This is reflected in the decline in short-term European bond yields, a factor that is not usually favorable for the euro.

According to currency market trading, the performance of the US dollar remains the most influential factor in the EUR/USD pair’s movement during the current period. The recent US jobs report marked a significant turning point, as it came in weaker than market expectations, prompting investors to reduce their bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

Overall, the outlook remains bearish as long as the currency pair remains below the 21-day moving average and the main downtrend line. Support at 1.1325 remains the nearest target if selling pressure continues, while buyers need a clear break above key technical resistance levels to change the current picture and pave the way for a more sustainable recovery.

Trading Advice:

The EUR/USD pair may remain trapped within its current sideways range until major economic catalysts emerge. Regardless of your investment conviction to buy or sell, adherence to strict risk management and position sizing is your only key to staying in the market.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

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7 07, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Slips Below $61.00 As Markets Turn Cautious

By |2026-07-07T23:38:02+03:00July 7, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments







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7 07, 2026

The GBPJPY approaches the main target– Forecast today – 7-7-2026

By |2026-07-07T19:51:58+03:00July 7, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

 

 

Platinum price attempted to settle within the minor bearish channel’s levels by its fluctuation near $1605.00 level, taking advantage of the negative factors that are represented by forming main barrier at $1745.00 level, besides the attempt of providing negative momentum by the main indicators, especially by stochastic stability below 80 level.

 

Therefore, we will keep preferring the bearish trend in the near trading, to expect breaking $1600.00 level and holding below it to begin targeting negative stations, which might begin at $1570.00 and $1510.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1570.00 and $1650.00

 

Trend forecast: Bearish 



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7 07, 2026

Coffee price today July 7: Increased by 4,000 VND/kg

By |2026-07-07T19:37:00+03:00July 7, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market simultaneously increased sharply in key production areas. The average price was recorded at 96,800 VND/kg, an increase of 4,000 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices increased by 3,900 VND/kg, reaching 96,700 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices increased by 4,000 VND/kg, reaching 96,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today increased by 3,900 VND/kg, to 96,200 VND/kg. This is still the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area continued to have the highest purchase price, reaching 97,000 VND/kg, an increase of 4,000 VND/kg.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate from 96. 200-97. 000 VND/kg. The gap between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 800 VND/kg.

After a strong increase, the domestic coffee price level has approached the 110,000 VND/kg mark. This is a notable increase after a period of strong market fluctuations at the end of June and the beginning of July.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 26,072 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

World coffee prices increased very strongly in the most recent trading session. Both Robusta on the London exchange and Arabica on the New York exchange simultaneously went up.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract increased by 328 USD/ton, equivalent to 8.83%, to 4,044 USD/ton.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 4,110 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 15,802 lots.

Robusta for November 2026 delivery increased by 328 USD/ton, equivalent to 8.92%, to 4,007 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms also increased by 328 USD/ton, to 3,974 USD/ton and 3,942 USD/ton respectively.

The July 2026 Robusta contract was recorded at 4,604 USD/ton, up 161 USD/ton. However, the trading volume only reached 21 lots because this term was close to maturity. Therefore, the September contract more clearly reflects the market trend.

On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices surged. The September 2026 Arabica futures contract increased by 48.75 US cents/lb, equivalent to 16.19%, to 349.95 US cents/lb.

During the session, this contract at one point touched 357.00 US cents/lb. Trading volume reached 47,909 lots.

Arabica December 2026 futures increased by 49.10 US cents/lb, equivalent to 17.15%, to 335.40 US cents/lb.

The March and May 2027 terms increased by 48.65 US cents/lb and 47.20 US cents/lb respectively, to 329.75 US cents/lb and 328.10 US cents/lb.

This development shows that world coffee prices are reacting very strongly to information about harvest progress in Brazil, low inventories and weather risks in the coming months.

Coffee price assessment

According to data from Barchart, coffee prices surged in the first session of the week, in which Arabica rose to a high of about 5 and a half months, and Robusta rose to a high of about 5 months.

The main supporting factor comes from the slow harvest progress in Brazil. Brazil’s consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that the 2026-2027 coffee crop harvest in this country has only completed 52% as of July 1.

This level is lower than 60% in the same period last year and also lower than the 5-year average of 55%. Slow harvest progress increases concerns that spot supply will be tightened in the short term.

The rise in coffee prices is also supported by unfavorable weather forecasts. Brazil’s Rural Climate Meteorological Company said that widespread rain may occur in Brazil in mid-July, adversely affecting some crops, including coffee.

Rain in harvest season can hinder harvesting, transportation and drying. If humidity persists, coffee bean quality is also at risk of being affected.

However, the Brazilian meteorological company Somar Meteorologia said that Minas Gerais state, the country’s largest coffee growing region, did not record rain in the week ending July 5. This shows that weather risks still need to be monitored for each production region.

Another factor supporting the price is the Brazilian real rising to a 2-week high against the USD. A strong real often causes Brazilian farmers to reduce export sales motivation, as revenue converted into domestic currency is less attractive.

Standard Arabica coffee inventories on the US Intercontinental Exchange continued to fall sharply, to 3,66,756 bags. This is the lowest level in more than 2 years, making the market more sensitive to unfavorable information about supply.

Meanwhile, Robusta inventories on the European Intercontinental Exchange increased to 4,109 lots last weekend, the highest level in about 3 months. This factor partly creates resistance for Robusta, but is not enough to stop the strong increase in the latest session.

El Niño risk continues to be monitored by businesses. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assesses that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will reach very strong intensity in the period from November 2026 to January 2027.

El Niño may change rainfall in Brazil during the coffee tree flowering period in September and October, and also affect Robusta production conditions in some Asian countries. However, the specific impact depends on the intensity and timing of appearance in each region.

In terms of pressure, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) still forecasts Brazil to have a large coffee crop in the 2026-2027 crop year. Rabobank of the Netherlands also raised its global Arabica surplus forecast for the 2026-2027 crop year from 7 million bags to 9.5 million bags.

Regarding Robusta, the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance) said that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 6 months of 2026 reached about 1.05 million tons, an increase of 7.3% compared to the same period. Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta producer, so increased supply is still a factor that can curb price increases in the medium term.





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