The S&P 500 Index SPY today is down -0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA is up +0.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index QQQ is down -0.83%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.20%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.85%.

Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. The weakness in energy producers from the plunge in crude oil prices is weighing on the broader market. Also, weakness in software stocks is a drag on the overall market. In addition, today’s weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits reports are negative for stocks.

Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.

Stocks are supported as crude oil prices dropped another -3% today to a 3.25-month low, easing inflation expectations and supporting stocks and bonds. Stocks have carryover support from Monday’s surge after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stoking risk-on sentiment in asset markets. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2 bp to 4.45%.

The market’s focus will turn to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today, the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the spotlight will be on how Mr. Warsh navigates the post-meeting press conference and the outlook for inflation.

US May housing starts fell -15.4% m/m to a 6-year low of 1.177 million, weaker than expectations of 1.430 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -0.7% m/m to 1.413 million, weaker than expectations of 1.418 million.

The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -3% today at a 3.25-month low due to the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting expectations for a revival in oil supplies. Goldman Sachs today cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected.

The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.56%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average rose to a new all-time high and closed up +0.13%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +4.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.6 bp to 4.447%. Sep T-notes are moving higher today amid the fall in WTI crude oil to a 3.25-month low, which has reduced inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes. Also, weaker-than-expected US May housing starts and building permits are supportive of T-notes. In addition, markets are hoping for a less hawkish FOMC meeting this week, given that oil prices should decline over time if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as expected.

European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to an 8-week low of 2.920% and is down -1.6 bp to 2.938%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.8 bp to 4.804%.

Eurozone Q1 labor costs were revised downward to +3.2% y/y from the previously reported +3.4% y/y.

The German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +20.7 to a 4-month high of 10.5, stronger than expectations of -5.5.

Swaps are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are falling today, a negative factor for the overall market. Atlassian Corp TEAM and Palantir Technologies PLTR are down more than -3%, and ServiceNow NOW and Workday WDAY are down more than -2%. Also, Microsoft MSFT, Salesforce CRM, and Oracle ORCL are down more than -1%. In addition, Intuit INTU is down -0.90% and Datadog DDOG is down -0.50%.

Cybersecurity stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the broader market. Zscaler ZS is down more than -3%, and Okta OKTA and Fortinet FTNT are down more than -2%. Also, CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD, Palo Alto Networks PANW, and Cloudflare NET are down more than -1%.

Energy stocks and service providers are moving lower today with WTI crude oil down more than -3% to a 3.25-month low. APA Corp APA and Valero Energy VLO are down more than -2%. Also, Baker Hughes BKR, ConocoPhillips COP, Diamondback Energy FANG, Devon Energy DVN, Haliburton HAL, and Occidental Petroleum OXY are down more than -1%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today as the -3% decline in WTI crude oil prices lowers fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies. American Airlines Group AAL and Southwest Airlines LUV are up more than +4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH is up more than +2%. Also, Carnival CCCL, Alaska Air Group ALK, and Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL are up more than +1%.

Mining stocks are climbing today with rallies in gold, silver, and copper prices. Newmont Corp NEM, Coeur Mining CDE, and Barrick Mining B are up more than +2%, and Anglogold Ashanti AU is up more than +1%. Also, Hecla Mining HL is up +0.54%, and Freeport McMoRan FCX is up 0.19%.

Space Exploration Technologies SPCX is up more than +7%, adding to the +37% gain over the past two sessions on positive carryover from its record $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) late last week, which was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock.

Valmont Industries VMI is up more than +5% after projecting a goal of $5.4 billion in organic net sales and an EPS target of $35 by the end of 2029.

Mobileye Global MBLY is up by more than +3% after announcing plans to expand its robotaxi activities beyond self-driving technology into full ownership of an autonomous ride-hailing business.

Edwards Lifesciences EW is up more than +3% after the US government published a coverage proposal for transcatheter aortic valve replacement, a positive development for the company.

Huntsman HUN is down more than -20% after agreeing to merge with Olin in an all-stock merger of equals.

Huson Pacific Properties HPP is down more than -4% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $14.

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment PLAY is down more than -2% after reporting Q1 revenue of $559.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $580.3 million.

Tractor Supply Co TSCO is down more than -2% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after several analysts cut their price targets on the stock.

Earnings Reports(6/16/2026)

John Wiley & Sons Inc (WLY) and La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Silver prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders took profit after a sharp relief rally driven by the US-Iran peace framework and lower oil prices.

XAGUSD traded near $69.85 in early European dealing, retreating from a weekly high as attention shifted from geopolitics to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday.

The pullback was measured rather than disorderly.

Lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, while the dollar remains near recent lows.

Even so, silver still faces a difficult technical setup, with momentum indicators showing that buyers have yet to regain control of the short-term trend.

Fed expectations keep silver supported

The biggest question for silver is whether the Fed sounds less worried about inflation after the fall in oil prices.

The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates in a 3.50% to 3.75% range this week, but the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments will matter more than the decision itself.

Silver, like gold, does not pay interest. That makes it sensitive to shifts in rate expectations and the dollar.

Traders have cut the probability of a December US rate hike to about 58%, from nearly 70% last week, according to CME FedWatch data.

Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex, told Reuters that a dovish signal from Warsh could weaken the dollar and trigger another rally in precious metals.

The same logic applies to silver, especially after Monday’s strong rebound.

Peace deal limits the downside

The US-Iran framework has also helped improve sentiment across commodities.

The proposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil lower, easing fears that energy costs will keep inflation elevated for longer.

That has offered a cushion to silver, even as traders lock in gains. A lower oil price reduces pressure on central banks to tighten further, which is generally supportive for non-yielding assets.

Still, markets are not treating the deal as risk-free.

Details of the agreement remain limited, and investors are waiting to see whether shipping through Hormuz can return safely and predictably. Any setback in talks could bring back demand for havens, but it could also revive inflation fears if crude prices jump again.

Technical picture stays fragile

Silver’s chart still points to caution.

The metal remains below the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average, keeping the broader bias tilted lower.

The relative strength index is also below the midline, suggesting weak momentum rather than a clear bullish turn.

The first resistance sits near $72.25. A move above that level could open the way to $74.14, followed by the 100-day SMA near $78.55 and the upper Bollinger band around $80.72.

On the downside, $63.80 remains the main support area to watch. Until silver clears nearby resistance, rallies may continue to face selling pressure.

The S&P 500 Index SPY today is up +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA is up +0.57%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index QQQ is down -0.18%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.09%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.14%.

Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high. Stocks are supported as crude oil prices dropped another -3% today to a 3.25-month low, easing inflation expectations and supporting stocks and bonds. Stocks have carryover support from Monday’s surge after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stoking risk-on sentiment in asset markets. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2 bp to 4.45%.

Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.

Gains in stocks are limited today amid weakness in energy producers from the plunge in crude oil prices and today’s weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits reports.

The market’s focus will turn to the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today, which will be the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the spotlight will be on how Mr. Warsh navigates the post-meeting press conference and the outlook for inflation.

US May housing starts fell -15.4% m/m to a 6-year low of 1.177 million, weaker than expectations of 1.430 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -0.7% m/m to 1.413 million, weaker than expectations of 1.418 million.

The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -3% today at a 3.25-month low due to the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting expectations for a revival in oil supplies. Goldman Sachs today cut its price forecast on Brent crude to $80 a barrel in Q4 of this year, down from $90 a barrel, and said it expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously expected.

The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.61%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average rose to a new all-time high and closed up +0.13%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.0 bp to 4.453%. Sep T-notes are moving higher today amid the fall in WTI crude oil to a 3.25-month low, which has reduced inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes. Also, weaker-than-expected US May housing starts and building permits are supportive of T-notes. In addition, markets are hoping for a less hawkish FOMC meeting this week, given that oil prices should decline over time if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as expected.

European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to an 8-week low of 2.921% and is down -3.0 bp to 2.924%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.0 bp to 4.782%.

Eurozone Q1 labor costs were revised downward to +3.2% y/y from the previously reported +3.4% y/y.

The German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +20.7 to a 4-month high of 10.5, stronger than expectations of -5.5.

Swaps are discounting an 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are pushing higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. Western Digital WDC is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc STX and Qualcomm QCOM are up more than +4%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc ARM is up more than +2%, and Analog Devices ADI, SanDisk SNDK, and Microchip Technology MCHP are up more than +1%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today as the -3% decline in WTI crude oil prices lowers fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies. American Airlines Group AAL and Southwest Airlines LUV are up more than +3%, and Carnival CCCL, Alaska Air Group ALK, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH are up more than +2%. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL, United Airlines Holdings UAL, and Delta Air Lines DAL are up more than +1%.

Mining stocks are climbing today with rallies in gold, silver, and copper prices. Coeur Mining CDE is up more than +3%, and Hecla Mining HL, Newmont Corp NEM, Barrick Mining B, and Southern Copper SCCO are up more than +2%. Also, Freeport McMoRan FCX and Anglogold Ashanti AU are up more than +1%.

Cybersecurity stocks are under pressure today, limiting gains in the broader market. Palo Alto Networks PANW, Zscaler ZS, and Fortinet FTNT are down more than -2%, and CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD is down more than -1%.

Energy stocks and service providers are moving lower today with WTI crude oil down more than -3% to a 3.25-month low. Valero Energy VLO is down more than -2%. Also, ConocoPhillips COP, Diamondback Energy FANG, Devon Energy DVN, Haliburton HAL, APA Corp APA, and Marathon Petroleum MPC are down more than -1%.

Space Exploration Technologies SPCX is up more than +13%, adding to the +37% gain over the past two sessions on positive carryover from its record $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) late last week, which was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock.

Mobileye Global MBLY is up by more than +5% after announcing plans to expand its robotaxi activities beyond self-driving technology into full ownership of an autonomous ride-hailing business.

Valmont Industries VMI is up more than +3% after projecting a goal of $5.4 billion in organic net sales and an EPS target of $35 by the end of 2029.

Edwards Lifesciences EW is up more than +3% after the US government published a coverage proposal for transcatheter aortic valve replacement, a positive development for the company.

Huntsman HUN is down more than -13% after agreeing to merge with Olin in an all-stock merger of equals.

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment PLAY is down more than -6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $559.2 million, weaker than the consensus of $580.3 million.

Tractor Supply Co TSCO is down more than -3% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after several analysts cut their price targets on the stock.

Huson Pacific Properties HPP is down more than -1% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $14.

Tanger SKT is down more than -1% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $38.

Earnings Reports(6/16/2026)

John Wiley & Sons Inc (WLY) and La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

More news from Barchart

• This Analyst Just Upgraded Palantir Stock. Here’s Why.
• Rocket Lab vs. Redwire: 1 Stock Has the Stronger Growth Story for the Next Decade
• Rocket Lab Stock Sinks After SpaceX IPO. If You’re In It for the Long Haul, Buy the Dip.
• The $2.7 Billion Reason YUM Stock Is Up Today

Recently, as a preliminary peace framework between the U.S. and Iran nears completion, the market’s trading logic has begun to shift. Trump has signaled a push to sign the agreement, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift some blockades, while Iran has also confirmed progress on the text of the agreement, prompting the crude market to potentially price in a supply recovery ahead of schedule. Looking at the chart, WTI fell to near $80, indicating that the market is rapidly squeezing out the risk premium previously generated by geopolitical tensions.

However, a recovery in supply does not mean oil prices will experience a one-way decline. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, actual tanker transit, shipping insurance, port scheduling, and the resumption of buyer purchases will all take time. Market analysts believe that restoring tanker traffic could take several weeks, and the resumption of production and exports may also proceed in phases. As long as the agreement has not been officially signed, or if the implementation details remain unclear after signing, oil prices still have room for volatile fluctuations.

Meanwhile, inventories are also providing some support for oil prices. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook shows that restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz has already significantly tightened the global oil market, with global petroleum inventories projected to decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. This indicates that the prior conflict in the Middle East was not just sentiment-driven but has caused actual inventory depletion. Even if the U.S.-Iran agreement progresses, replenishing global inventories will take time. If summer travel demand rebounds, low inventory levels could limit the room for further deep declines in WTI.

On the demand side, this remains the key factor capping any rebound in oil prices. Currently, global crude demand is sluggish, with Asian demand performing particularly weakly. China’s crude imports in May fell 29% year-on-year to an eight-year low, indicating that high oil prices, supply instability, and pressure on refining margins have significantly dampened buying interest. Weakness on the demand side means that once Middle Eastern supply recovers, it will be difficult for the market to continue justifying high oil prices with supply tightness. Meanwhile, U.S. crude and refined product exports remain high, mitigating the Middle East supply gap to some extent and leaving the spot market less tight than previously expected.

WTI Crude Oil Price Weekly Chart, Source: TradingView

From WTI’s weekly chart, following a sharp 6.6% drop last week, oil prices opened lower with a gap and continued to decline this week, significantly boosting bearish momentum in the market. The downward trend could persist for the remainder of the trading week.

Currently, WTI’s primary downside target is to test the support at the April low of $78.97. If this level fails to hold, oil prices could open up room for further decline toward the $76.60 support level, and potentially even move lower to fill the gap between $67.28 and $75.00.

On the upside, if WTI fails to break below the $78.97 support, oil prices may see a short-term technical rebound, with the primary target of filling the $84.28-$81.40 gap.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.