Other stats include finalized S&P Global Manufacturing PMI numbers for June. Changes to preliminary numbers may influence sentiment toward the US economy.

According to the preliminary survey, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.3 to 51.7.

While the stats may have a limited impact on the USD/JPY, FOMC Member speeches could move the dial.

Consideration Needed for Reactions to the US Personal Income and Outlays Report

Beyond the numbers, investors should monitor FOMC Member chatter. Reactions to the US Personal Income and Outlays Report could influence investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut.

In particular, investors should consider views on inflation and the timing of a Fed rate cut.

Short-term Forecast: Bearish

USD/JPY trends depend on intervention threats, consumer confidence numbers from Japan, and central bank speeches. Better-than-expected consumer confidence figures could raise investor bets on a BoJ rate hike and support a USD/JPY drop below 160. However, an intervention could send the USD/JPY through the 152 handle.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY sat well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price signals.

A USD/JPY breakout from the June 28 high of 161.283 would support a move toward the 162 handle.

Intervention threats, Bank of Japan commentary, consumer confidence numbers from Japan, and Fed speakers require investor attention.

Conversely, a fall through the 160 handle could signal a USD/JPY break below the 50-day EMA. A drop below the 50-day EMA could give the bears a run at the $151.685 support level.

The 14-day RSI at 72.85 shows a USD/JPY in overbought territory. Selling pressure may increase at the June 28 high of 161.283.