Upbeat trade data and a surge in machinery orders could test the theory of the Fed being in the policy driving seat.

US Federal Reserve: 25 or 50 Basis Points? FOMC Projections and Powell Press Conference

Beyond Japan’s data, the Fed interest rate decision, FOMC projections, and Powell’s press conference could prove crucial.

A 50-basis point Fed rate cut, downward revisions to growth, and a more dovish Fed rate path could send the USD/JPY below 140. Conversely, a 25-basis point rate hike and expectations of a soft landing could push the USD/JPY toward 145.

Other stats include housing sector-related data. However, these will play second fiddle to the Fed.

Short-term Forecast for USD/JPY

USD/JPY trends will likely hinge on the Fed interest rate decision and FOMC projections as the BoJ interest rate decision looms. The USD/JPY could face heightened volatility, with the Fed likely to address unanswered questions about the rate path and the economic outlook.

Investors should remain alert with the BoJ’s interest rate decision also pivotal for the USD/JPY pair. Monitor real-time data, central bank views, and expert commentary to adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Stay ahead of the market with our expert insights.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY hovers well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bearish price trends.

A USD/JPY breakout from the 142.500 level may bring the 143.495 resistance level into play. Furthermore, a break above the 143.495 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 145.891 resistance level.

Economic indicators from Japan, the Fed interest rate decision, the FOMC projections, and the FOMC press conference require consideration.

Conversely, a break below the 141.032 support level could signal a drop to the September 16 low of 139.576. A fall through 139.576 could bring the 137.712 support level into play.

The 14-day RSI at 38.58 suggests a USD/JPY fall below the 141.032 support level before entering oversold territory.