Created on December 09, 2024

• The British Pound gained significantly against the US Dollar last week, reaching the resistance level of 1.2810.
• However, GBP/USD quickly faced selling pressure, closing the week around 1.2735.
• Meanwhile, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade within a narrow range with a bearish bias until the release of US inflation data this week, which could shape the future of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
• Conversely, the absence of significant UK economic data releases this week, except for the UK GDP growth rate at the end of the week, will make the performance of GBP/USD dependent on the dollar’s movements and investor sentiment.

US Inflation Data Crucial for the Currency Pair

According to Bloomberg Economics, US headline inflation is expected to be 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year last month, matching October’s figures. Forward-looking pricing and early submissions to the Bloomberg survey align with these expectations. For the Federal Reserve, steady inflation is likely to signal caution when assessing interest rate cuts at the December meeting. Experts at Bloomberg expect US core consumer prices—a better measure of underlying inflation pressures—to have risen by 0.3% in November, matching the previous month’s pace. Also, the data will be released during the Federal Reserve’s traditional blackout period on public comments ahead of the meeting. These figures, along with the non-farm payroll report released last week, will shape expectations for the Fed’s decision.

Trading Advice:

Despite the recent strong performance of the Pound, it may be susceptible to renewed selling in the coming trading sessions.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

With the gains of the GBP/USD pair, the direction of the technical indicators, the RSI and the MACD, has shifted upwards, and to confirm the general trend has shifted to an upward trend, bulls should launch the currency pair towards the resistance levels of 1.2860. consequently, the psychological resistance of 1.3000. Otherwise, the technical gains of the pair will be subject to renewed selling operations to take profits, which we expect in the coming days. Especially, if the US inflation figures come out stronger than all expectations. The expected US trade wars have expanded, which increases the demand for buying the US dollar as a safe haven. As is known, the British pound is a risk currency. Decisively, it must be considered that returning to the 1.2600 level will end hopes for the recent rise for a period of time.

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