The EUR/USD is our featured currency pair this week, owing to the fact we have the European Central Bank’s key rate decision and important inflation data from the US coming in a week before the Federal Reserve’s own decision on interest rates. Ahead of these macro events, the EUR/USD forecast remains modestly bearish, although the currency pair has found some love today thanks to optimism about more stimulus measures being introduced in China, one of the Eurozone’s major exports destinations.

 

What is driving the markets today?

 

China’s government announced they will embrace a “moderately loose” strategy next year, in a sign of greater easing ahead that has been hailed by investors hungry for more stimulus today. The news caused Chinese equities and nearly all Chinese-linked assets rally, from copper to commodity stocks in the FTSE. The euro also found some mild support on the view that a stimulus-driven recovery in China will help support eurozone exports into that region. But most of the gains were evidenced in currencies that have even closer trade ties with China, such as the AUD. All eyes are now on the Central Economic Work Conference due to start on Wednesday, for signals of more fiscal support from China.

 

How big of a cut should we expect from the ECB?

 

Well, analysts are expecting a standard 25 basis point rate cut at Thursday’s meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. There were talks of perhaps 50 basis points, which may still be under consideration. However, the ECB is more likely, in our view, to deliver a 25bp cut to take the deposit rate down to 3.15% from the current 3.40% and use the press conference to open the door to several further rate cuts in 2025. Today’s release of the latest Sentix Investor Confidence reading will certainly make the ECB’s doves more vocal. It is not just data that calls for looser policy: Governments in Paris and Berlin both collapsed over budget talks recently and this uncertainty is likely to weigh on growth further. The EUR/USD forecast could turn more bearish if the ECB turns out to be even more dovish than the market is expecting them to be right now.

 

EUR/USD forecast: CPI is this week’s key US data

 

US inflation data will be released this week, with CPI coming on Wednesday and PPI a day later. CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% y/y from 2.6% y/y previously. This will be the last set of key data before the Federal Reserve meets next week. Following Trump’s victory in the presidential election race, investors have sharply reduced their expectations about further US interest rate cuts in 2025. The upcoming December rate decision is unlikely to be impacted by this CPI report, unless we see a super-hot print. But whether the Fed will go ahead with a cut at its initial 2025 meetings will be influenced, among other key data highlights, by this CPI report, although it is employment that the Fed is now more focused on.

 

But after Friday’s somewhat of a softish NFP report, a 25-bps rate cut is now more likely than not. Indeed, market pricing of a December rate cut has risen to around 87% from 70% last week, although this has not yet had any further influence on the EUR/USD’s direction.

 

 

Technical EUR/USD forecast: Key levels to watch

 

Source: TradingView.com

 

The EUR/USD has now had a few attempts to break above the 1.06 resistance area (i.e., the 1.0595-1.0610 range). So far, it has failed to post a daily close above this range to tip the balance in the bulls’ favour. But will that change as we head deeper into the week remains to be seen. For now, at least, the bulls will need to remain patient as we don’t have a concrete reversal signal to work with. A daily close above this resistance area could potentially pave the way for a short-squeeze rally towards the 1.0700 area, possibly 1.0775/80.

 

But while the 1.06 resistance area holds, the risks remain skewed to the downside. As such a break below the 1.0500 area is still a scenario that looks more likely than a sharp rally. The 1.0500 level is the most important support to watch in so far as the short-term outlook is concerned. A daily close below the 1.0450-1.0500 area could see the EUR/USD resume its bearish trend that started back in September. If that happens, then the next downside target would be the liquidity resting below the recent lows of around 1.0333 area. Thereafter, you have the round handles like 1.0300 and 1.0200 as the subsequent targets en route to potentially parity.

 

All told, the EUR/USD forecast is modestly bearish, and we could see the selling resume unless US CPI is super soft, or the ECB is not as dovish as markets are expecting.

 

 

 

— Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R