Created on December 09, 2024

• At the beginning of another significant trading week, the EUR/USD currency pair is stabilizing on the downside around 1.0566 after failing to break above the 1.0630 resistance level last Friday.
• Obviously, this follows the release of stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
• The EUR/USD pair may remain in a narrow range with a bearish bias until the European Central Bank’s announcement this week, along with the release of US inflation data.

Weakening of the Eurozone Economy Affects the Currency

Political instability in the largest Eurozone economies has not been the sole factor behind the weakening of investor sentiment towards the Euro. Recently, the bloc’s economy has been facing numerous difficulties, including a significant slowdown. Also, the European Central Bank’s plans have not yielded satisfactory results. Forecasts currently indicate that France is expected to grow by 1.1% this year and 0.8% in 2025, while the German economy is expected to shrink by 0.1% this year, marking the second consecutive year of contraction, and then recover modestly by 0.7% in 2025. As for the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany faces headwinds from a shortage of skilled labor, excessive bureaucracy, and high energy prices, and efforts to address these issues have been hampered by disagreements within the German Chancellor’s coalition. The Eurozone economy is expected to face significant challenges if the incoming Trump administration’s trade wars impact the bloc’s exports.

US Jobs Data Indicates a Strong Economy

The US Dollar performed strongly following the release of details from the previous month’s US jobs report. The US economy added a total of 227,000 jobs, while the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% previously. Also, hourly wages increased by 0.4%. Overall, the November US jobs report provided the latest evidence that the US labour market remains strong, although it has lost much of the momentum from the hiring boom of 2021-2023 when the US economy was recovering from the pandemic recession.

The gradual slowdown in the labour market is partly due to the high interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve in its efforts to tame inflation. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023. Contrary to expectations, the economy has continued to grow despite significant increases in borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. However, since early this year, the labour market has been slowing.

Events Affecting the Euro-Dollar This Week

According to the economic calendar, the performance of the EUR/USD pair this week may be influenced by the release of US inflation data and the announcement of European Central Bank policies. Regarding the first event, forecasts indicate that the US consumer price index reading will decline from 2.6% to 2.5% in November. Overall, US inflation has remained higher in recent months. It is worth noting that these figures will determine the course of US Federal Reserve policy in the coming months.

Regarding the second event, the European Central Bank’s announcement will be closely monitored, especially as the Eurozone economy faces domestic and international challenges. Expectations are high that the ECB will cut interest rates from 3.40% to 3.15% this week, and the main focus will be on the tone of the bank’s policy statement and the press conference held by ECB President Lagarde.

Trading Tips:

We still prefer to sell the Euro Dollar from every upward level, as the factors of the Euro’s weakness are strong and may take time to remove or the opposite may happen and things will get worse.

EUR/USD Analysis Today:

There is no change in my technical view of the performance of the Euro against the US Dollar EUR/USD, as the general trend is still bearish. as we mentioned before, stability around and below the support level of 1.0500 will continue to support the bears’ control over the trend, and moving below it will warn of a stronger downward movement to come. Technically, expectations of the Euro Dollar moving towards the parity price will increase if prices fall to the support levels of 1.0440 and 1.0365, respectively. In contrast, according to the performance on the daily chart, the first break of the Euro Dollar’s downward trend will be the break of the resistance of 1.0822. In general, we still prefer to sell the Euro Dollar from every upward level. 

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