Coffee price world

Early in the morning of 28/11 (Vietnam time), on the London floor, the price of Robusta coffee futures for monthly delivery November 2024 was at 5.533 USD/ton, up 358 USD/ton compared to yesterday. The monthly delivery term January 2025 increased 382 USD/ton, trading at 5.496 USD/ton.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor for monthly delivery December 2024 traded at 323 cents/lb, up 15 cents/lb compared to yesterday’s trading level. For monthly delivery March 2025, trading was at 320 cents/lb, up 14 cents/lb.

Coffee prices in the country

Domestic coffee prices today also increased across localities, trading at 123.500 – 124.100 VND/kg.

Specifically, in the province Dak Lak, today’s coffee price is purchased at 124.000 VND/kg, an increase of 2.400 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

At Lam Dong, today’s coffee price was purchased at 123.500 VND/kg, an increase of 2.500 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.

At Gia Lai, today’s coffee price is trading at 123.900 VND/kg, up 2.600 VND/kg.

Coffee prices in the province Dak Nong Today recorded an increase of 2.100 VND/kg, purchased at 124.100 VND/kg.

Global coffee prices continued their strong upward trend, reflecting deep concerns about future supply. Specifically, Arabica coffee prices increased by 1,33% to a 27-year high, while Robusta prices also increased by 1,27%, approaching the threshold of 5.200 USD/ton.

Rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-growing state, was below historical average last week, adding to supply concerns there. Somar Meteorologia reported just 6 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais last week, or 10% of the historical average.

The low rainfall has raised concerns that coffee plants will not be able to fully recover and develop, leading to a sharp drop in output compared to the current crop. Previously, Brazil’s main coffee growing region experienced a prolonged period of historic drought, causing analysts to simultaneously reduce their forecasts for coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year as well as the 2024-2025 crop year.  

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Brazil office estimates the country’s coffee production for the 2024-2025 crop year at 66,4 million 60-kg bags, down 3,5 million bags from the previous forecast. The total production decline is mainly due to a decline in Arabica coffee as the growing region faces harsh weather conditions during the flowering and bean development stages.

In addition, exports in the 2024-2025 crop year are estimated to decrease by 5% compared to the previous forecast and 2,5 million bags lower than the previous crop year, to 44,25 million bags. At the same time, ending inventories in the 2024-2025 crop year are down 65% compared to the forecast of USDA headquarters, to 1,24 million bags, and ending inventories in the 2023-2024 crop year are also cut from 2,88 million bags to 1,68 million bags. 

Regarding the long-term outlook, consulting firm Hedgepoint in its latest global market report forecasts that Brazil’s coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year will only reach about 65,2 million bags, of which Arabica coffee output is expected to be at 42,6 million bags, down 1,4% compared to the previous crop.

Thanh Lam