Warm Forecasts Undermine Short-Term Demand

The primary drag on prices came from updated weather projections. Atmospheric G2 reported warmer-than-normal conditions across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. for April 22–26, reducing the need for heating demand. With storage builds now expected to accelerate, traders leaned bearish, even as technical indicators show the market holding above its 200-day moving average at $2.897.

Bullish Inventory Data Offers Temporary Support

The EIA reported a +16 Bcf injection for the week ended April 11, well below forecasts of +24 Bcf and the five-year average increase of +50 Bcf. While this bullish surprise triggered a round of short covering, it wasn’t enough to change the broader sentiment driven by warming temperatures. As of April 11, U.S. natural gas inventories were 20.9% below year-ago levels and 3.9% below the five-year average.

Production Stable, But Demand Picture Mixed

Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday reached 105.6 Bcf/day, up 5.4% year-over-year, while demand stood at 70.1 Bcf/day, up 2.2%. LNG flows to export terminals dropped to 15.5 Bcf/day, down 4.8% from the prior week. Electricity demand, however, remained supportive. The Edison Electric Institute reported a 6.4% year-over-year jump in power generation for the week ending April 12, potentially signaling stronger gas burn from utilities.

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