The largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING Group, has revised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025, lowering it from $70 to $65 per barrel.

Report informs, citing ING, that the decision comes amid worsening supply-demand balance in the global oil market.

According to ING data, in Q1 2025, the average price of Brent was $75 per barrel, but a decline is expected going forward: it will drop to $64 per barrel in Q2, $62 in Q3, and $59 in Q4 per barrel.

The bank’s analytical report notes that the price drop is caused by a combination of weak demand and changes in OPEC+ policies.

“Demand issues caused by uncertainty in tariff policy are exacerbated by OPEC+ shifting its focus from price support to market share protection,” the document states.

According to ING, OPEC+ announced an accelerated return of production volumes: in June alone, it plans to increase supply by 411,000 barrels per day. Initially, the group aimed to return 2.2 million barrels per day to the market over 18 months, but now nearly 1 million barrels per day may be restored in just three months. If this pace continues, the entire volume (2.2 million barrels) will be returned by the end of Q3, a year ahead of schedule, the report notes.

ING associates this move with internal disagreements within the OPEC+ cartel: “The accelerated production recovery has led to an oversupply, which is putting pressure on prices. This was the primary reason for the revision of the 2025 forecast. Additional price pressure is confirmed by the shape of the forward curve—most contracts for 2025 are trading in contango (future prices higher than current ones). This indicates expectations of further supply growth and weak demand.”

According to the report, another variable remains the behavior of OPEC+: “It is unclear how long the group will stick to the current strategy before returning to market stabilization measures.”

ING also draws attention to possible budgetary consequences for major producers. For instance, Saudi Arabia needs around $90 per barrel for a balanced budget. With current prices, the country may face an increase in its budget deficit.

Similarly, for US producers, profitable drilling of new wells becomes difficult: according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, they need a price of about $65 per barrel, while WTI is trading below $60. This could lead to a reduction in drilling activity in the U.S. and cast doubt on production growth in 2025–2026, analysts say.

According to updated data from ING, further price declines are expected in 2026: in Q1, it will be $58 per barrel, in Q2, $56, in Q3, $58, and in Q4, $54 per barrel.

Thus, the bank estimates that the average annual price of Brent in 2026 will be $57 per barrel.