• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, higher Japanese producer prices, hawkish BoJ signals, or softer US inflation could push USD/JPY toward 142.5.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Easing trade tensions, softer producer prices, dovish BoJ cues, or hotter US inflation may drive the pair above 145 toward 146.285.

See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.

AUD/USD in Focus: US-China Trade Headlines to Guide Risk Sentiment

US-China trade talks continued on June 10, spotlighting AUD/USD. Easing US-China trade tensions and progress toward a meaningful agreement could boost Chinese demand and bolster Aussie dollar sentiment. Given that China accounts for one-third of Australian exports and, with a trade-to-GDP rate exceeding 50%, improving trade terms may ease recession fears.

Conversely, failed talks may raise recession risks and prompt a more dovish RBA rate stance. A more dovish RBA rate path could drag AUD/USD lower.

At the most recent RBA press conference, Governor Michele Bullock warned:

“Australia’s economy could easily be compromised if a trade war between the US and China escalates. Depending on where we end up on trade developments, there might be more interest rate adjustments. But for now, rates are in the right place.”

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Escalation in the US-China trade war or dovish RBA rhetoric may send AUD/USD below $0.65 toward $0.6450 and the 200-day and 50-day EMAs.
• Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: A US-China trade deal or hawkish RBA cues could drive the pair above $0.6550 toward $0.66.

Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.

Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US CPI in Focus

Later today, the US CPI Report will move AUD/USD through its influence on US-Aussie interest rate differentials.

Higher inflation would likely temper Fed rate cut expectations, widening the interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A wider rate differential may pull AUD/USD below $0.65, bringing the 200-day and 50-day EMAs into sight.

Softer inflation, by contrast, may revive Fed rate cut bets, narrowing the rate differential. In this scenario, AUD/USD may move above $0.6550, with the $0.66 level as the next key target.