Resistance Holds at Key Levels

Today’s weakness follows last Friday’s failed attempt to push higher, where resistance was met at a long-term anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) with a peak at $2.97. That test aligned closely with additional resistance near $3.00, and the 20-Day moving average, now at $2.99, which represents dynamic resistance in the broader downtrend. Any rallies from current levels are expected to face headwinds in this $2.97–$2.99 zone, keeping bears in control.

Bearish Targets Taking Shape

The breakdown has opened the path to lower targets, with $2.63 as the first level of interest. This comes from a smaller descending ABCD pattern, where symmetry between the AB and CD legs projects a 100% match at $2.63.

Confluence Zone Below $2.54

Beyond $2.63, attention shifts to a lower confluence zone between $2.54 and $2.51. Multiple technical factors point toward this region, strengthening its significance as a potential magnet for price. It includes a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54 and aligns with a larger ABCD pattern, measured from this year’s peak, that projects a 78.6% downside target also at $2.54. Combined, these overlapping levels define a high-probability area where natural gas may eventually seek support if the bearish correction continues.

Outlook

With today’s continuation signal and sellers maintaining control, natural gas remains biased lower. Until the 20-Day average is reclaimed, momentum favors additional downside toward $2.63 initially, and potentially into the $2.54–$2.51 support band.

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