Confluence of Potential Resistance

The next critical zone lies near $2.96–$2.97, where multiple indicators converge, including the 20-Day moving average and a long-term anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) level. The AVWAP has historically acted as support and resistance since October, reinforcing this area as a potential barrier. Importantly, this zone will only become relevant if prices break decisively above Thursday’s $2.85 high, confirming a bullish wedge breakout. Until then, momentum toward $2.97 remains conditional.

Wedge Pattern in Play

Thursday’s high also coincided with resistance at April’s swing low (now resistance) and the upper boundary of a small falling wedge pattern. A decisive move above $2.85 would trigger a bullish breakout signal, initially projecting toward $3.15, the beginning of the wedge formation. Without that breakout, price is likely to remain contained below the wedge and 20-Day moving average and facing further selling pressure.

Outlook

The current setup shows natural gas attempting to stabilize after recent weakness, but upside momentum is limited until the wedge breakout occurs. A move above $2.85 is required to shift short-term momentum toward higher targets. If that level fails to hold, price may remain in the current consolidation, with the wedge and AVWAP acting as key reference points for resistance. If the trend low of $2.73 is broken, then next downside target $2.63.

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