Consolidation Breakdown Drives Weakness

Recent price action shows that natural gas was never able to push through the short downtrend line created during the declining consolidation phase. That failure left the market exposed, and when long-term support finally gave way after multiple tests, it triggered a decisive shift lower. Momentum has since accelerated, reinforcing the dominance of sellers.

Downside Targets Come into View

The next measured move lower is defined by a falling ABCD pattern, which projects to $2.63. However, given the strength of the decline, that level may offer little more than a temporary pause. A more significant confluence of support lies below, between $2.54 and $2.51. This zone combines both Fibonacci projections and prior swing activity, making it an important area where traders may watch for stabilization or reversal signals.

Channel and Trendline Considerations

Natural gas continues to trade beneath the midline of a descending trend channel. This positioning keeps pressure directed toward the channel’s lower boundary, which aligns closely with the $2.54 area. Adding weight to this outlook is a declining trendline drawn from the 2023 peak, which could converge with price zone if weakness extends further. The overlap of channel and trendline support makes the lower zone technically significant.

Weekly Outlook Reinforces Bearish Bias

The weekly chart is turning decisively negative. A close near the lows of the week underscores sustained selling pressure and the lack of meaningful buying interest. Long candles at trend lows often indicate exhaustion, but so far, the bears are clearly in chart. This leaves natural gas vulnerable to additional declines in the near term.

What Bulls Need to See

For buyers to regain conviction, natural gas would need to reclaim $2.85, the interim swing high from Thursday. Only a decisive and sustained move above that level would begin to challenge the prevailing bearish structure. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower, with traders watching for reactions at deeper support.

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