At 10:15 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3551.11, up $5.24 or +0.15%.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Bets Fuel Gold’s Weekly Surge

Gold is on track for its best weekly performance in three months, supported by rising speculation that the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut rates. A string of weaker-than-expected U.S. labor data, including soft ADP private payrolls and elevated jobless claims, has strengthened the market’s view that the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points during its September policy meeting.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report, due at 1230 GMT, is the next major catalyst. Markets are bracing for an August payrolls increase of just 75,000, slightly above July’s 73,000. A print below expectations would likely reinforce dovish Fed expectations and drive bond yields and the dollar lower—conditions that tend to benefit non-yielding assets like gold.

Technically, the 50-day moving average at $3,370.40 remains a key trend support. As long as gold holds above this level, the broader uptrend remains intact. The market’s recent strength has been fueled by a confluence of lower funding costs, geopolitical risk premiums, a steepening yield curve, and a weaker U.S. dollar—tailwinds that continue to support bullish sentiment.

Fed officials this week emphasized concerns over the labor market, signaling growing support for rate cuts. With monetary policy shifting toward easing and risk appetite still fragile, gold continues to draw interest from both institutional and speculative buyers.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Above $3,500, Eyes on NFP for Next Leg

As long as spot gold holds above $3,500.20, the near-term outlook remains bullish. A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report could provide the fuel needed for a fresh breakout above $3,578.66 and a potential rally toward $3,879.64 by September 23.