Read the full USD/JPY forecast, including chart setups and trade ideas.

As traders consider the BoJ’s views on the Tankan survey, attention is also turning to the AUD/USD as Aussie inflation and labor market data cloud the RBA’s policy outlook.

Ai Group Industry Index Dips, Spotlighting the Aussie Dollar

Turning focus to the AUD/USD pair, the Ai Group Industry Index fell from -13.9 in August to -16.0 in September, weighing on the Aussie dollar.

The Index provides insights into the economic outlook as survey respondents across the private sector answer questions about employment, new orders, and production.

A softer number could signal weaker demand and a cooling labor market. Rising unemployment may soften wage growth, curbing consumer spending. A pullback in spending may dampen inflation, supporting the case for an RBA rate cut in November.

The AUD/USD pair briefly climbed to $0.66183 before falling to $0.66042 after the softer data.

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Dovish RBA chatter and rising trade friction may push AUD/USD toward $0.655.
• Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Hawkish RBA comments and easing trade tensions could send AUD/USD toward $0.665.

See our full AUD/USD analysis for detailed trends and trade setups.

US Labor Market Data and the Interest Rate Differential

Amid rising uncertainty about a November RBA rate cut, US labor market data could provide greater clarity on Fed policy this week.

A marked increase in nonfarm payrolls may temper bets on an October Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed rate path could widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, favoring the US dollar and pushing AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA ($0.65556).

On the other hand, a lower print may fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter, narrowing the rate differential. A more dovish Fed policy stance could send AUD/USD toward $0.665.