Created on October 03, 2025

• The US dollar has been very noisy overall, as we have seen a lot of questions asked of the dollar against the Japanese yen.
• We are falling toward the bottom of the previous consolidation area, and it is worth noting that the 146 yen level has been massive support, and we did bounce from there to show signs of life.

50 Day EMA

At the top of the candlestick, we have the 50 day EMA. And if we can break above there, it’s possible that we could go look into the 149 yen level. That is the top of the previous consolidation range. And therefore, a lot of people will be looking at it very intently. Anything above there opens up the possibility of moving to the 151 yen level. This is a market that I think given enough time, we’ll have to make a bigger decision. But right now, the interest rate differential still favors the U.S. dollar of the Japanese yen.

And that, of course, makes quite a bit of sense that traders would be willing to buy on the dips. The last couple of days have been rather rough for the US dollar against the Japanese yen. But we are seeing the US dollar fight against other currencies around the world, not just the yen. So, I’m looking for a balance here. If we were to break down below the 145.50 yen level, then I think that throws that narrative out the window.

Nonetheless, this is a market that I’ve been collecting swap in for quite some time, buying dips, selling bounces, that type of thing. Ultimately, the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators are sitting on top of each other and flat showing signs of hesitation, just sideways action. And that action will continue to be sideways. I think the main theory and main theme here of what’s going on, but given enough time, I do favor the upside.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.