Modified: Thursday, 9 October 2025 23:30 BST

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD to see Fresh Slide Toward 1.1500

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate remains pinned near six-week lows around 1.1620 as dollar strength endures. ING warns that a break below 1.16 could trigger a fresh slide toward the 1.1500 area, with only limited rebound potential in the near term.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Under Pressure

EUR/USD found support close to 1.1600, but rally attempts have been limited with the pair trading around 1.1620 and still close to 6-week lows.

The lack of US data continued to dampen activity with the dollar holding a firm tone. For now, the US shutdown has not had a negative impact on the dollar.

ING commented; “We prefer the lower end of a two-month trading range holding at 1.1580/1600 for EUR/USD. If not, we could see another sharpish fall to the 1.1500 area.”

UoB also sees scope for a limited correction; “The rebound from oversold conditions suggests that instead of continuing to decline, EUR is more likely to trade in a range today, expected to be between 1.1600 and 1.1660.”

Scotiabank added; “We look to a near-term range bound between support at 1.16 and resistance at 1.1650.”

It did, however, add; “Support appears limited between 1.16 and the early August low under 1.14.”

Global political developments remained a key element for global markets.

As far as France is concerned, outgoing Prime Minister Lecornu stated on Wednesday that support for early elections had faded and that President Macron would nominate a new Prime Minister by the end of this week.

MUFG commented; “In what looks like a climbdown by President Macron, the suspension of pension reform has been put on the table as a way to reach a compromise. This would help break the gridlock although an estimated EUR 3bn-3.5bn of savings would have to be found over the coming two years to cover the cost.”

There was a rally in French bonds, although underlying pressure remained.

MUFG added; “Still, risks remain high and political uncertainty will persist curtailing euro buying. FX moves have been very modest.”

Federal Reserve minutes from the September meeting stated that a few members could have voted for no change in interest rates at that meeting and there were concerns over inflation.

Nevertheless, most members stated that it was likely to be appropriate to ease policy further this year.

Markets are still pricing in close to a 95% chance that rates will be cut again at the October meeting.

Scotiabank commented; “Wednesday’s FOMC minutes offered a mixed message as policymakers balanced concerns about downside risks to the labor market and upside risks to inflation, ultimately leaning dovish to confirm the market’s expectations for additional rate cuts this year.”

The US government shutdown is continuing with Republicans and Democrats unable to secure the necessary votes to break the deadlock.

The economic cost of the shutdown will gradually increase and HSBC commented; “Overall, the implications of the US government shutdown for the USD are uncertain, but most likely lean to the weak side, in our view.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts