Front month copper traded at $4.94 and held up well in the rout in precious metals prices. Many copper miners (often because of associated gold production) were beaten up anyway.

Today, TD Cowen was out with a report highlighting a tightening market and they boosted their 2026 price to $5.25 from $4.40 previously. They also took up their long-term price to $4.50 from $4.25/lb.

The swing has been that trouble at several major mines has taken about 5% of global supply offline. The recent run-up in copper prices came after the mudslide at Grasberg.

On September 8th, Grasberg operations in Indonesia were subject to a
massive mudflow into the mine, causing a shutdown of operations and Freeport
declaring force majeure on its contracts. A subsequent announcement from Freeport
later in the month revealed preliminary impacts suggesting a production impact of
roughly 200kt and 270kt Cu in Q4/25 and 2026, respectively, from the world’s
second-largest copper mine (~3.4% total mined supply in 2024). Further disruptions
this year include the seismic event at Kamoa-Kakula (~200kt), ramp-up difficulties at
QB (~100kt), and El Teniente’s mine collapse (~48kt), which when combined represent
~2% of global supply.

Prices have been consolidating in the $4.90 to $5.20 range, which is near the top end of all-time highs.

Looking ahead, TD Cowen sees a 222kt deficit in 2026, which they warn could be conservative.

Longer term, lower production from mines entering mature stages of their mine life
along with the lack of greenfield investments imply that a larger copper price is
inevitable to incentivize development and support growing demand

So far this year, copper demand has been stronger than anticipated, with Wood Mackenzie now seeing 3.7% growth. The swing factor is often Chinese growth and that’s held up better than feared. In the years ahead, power generation/transmission, AI datacenters and greening the economy could be massive tailwinds.

Note that the US appears to be scrambling for copper supplies.

In terms of miners, TD’s top
picks include Lundin with buy ratings on Capstone, Ivanhoe and Teck along with top developer pick
Arizona Sonoran, where they are particularly bullish.