Rate expectations moved sharply. Futures markets now assign an added 85% probability to a quarter-point cut next month, up from roughly 50% a week earlier. The shift pushed the US Dollar to a one-week low, though stronger risk appetite limited gold’s upside.

Mixed US Data Keeps Traders Cautious

US economic figures delivered a mixed signal. Durable goods orders rose 0.5%, beating forecasts but slowing from the prior month, while unemployment claims fell to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. However, the Chicago PMI dropped to 36.3, its deepest contraction in months, highlighting ongoing business weakness.

Despite the divergence, traders focused more on the Fed’s dovish tone than the data itself, keeping pressure on gold and silver as markets rotated into risk assets.

Silver Tracks Gold as Risk Appetite Improves

Silver eased alongside gold, with sentiment supported by signs of progress in geopolitical negotiations and firming global equities. As an industrial-linked metal, silver remains particularly sensitive to shifting growth expectations, and the improved risk backdrop tempered haven demand.

For now, both metals remain anchored to the Fed’s policy trajectory. With markets heavily pricing in a December cut, upcoming inflation data and scheduled Fed speeches will likely guide the next move.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may range between $4,122–$4,179 as traders await a breakout from the triangle, while silver holds a bullish bias above $52.26, eyeing $53.46–$54.44 if momentum strengthens.