Massive Rally Since November Low

Since bottoming at $48.64 on November 21, XAGUSD has rallied more than $28.67. Given the current fire power, it looks as if speculators want to challenge the 2026 target of $100 or better, well ahead of schedule.

Other interesting facts to note, since that November 21 bottom, the market has had only five losing sessions out 24. The nearest support is the swing chart 50% level at $69.50. And the market is currently $21.96 above the 50-day moving average at $55.35.

Technical Conditions Override Overbought Signals

This is real price action, not amateur RSI data that has been flashing overbought for days, perhaps spooking weak shorts out of the market and putting enough fear into new buyers to keep them on the sidelines.

Dip-Buying Behavior Has Shifted

We’ve heard for months that traders are coming in on the “dips”, this hasn’t been the case since December 12, when the market pulled back $3.87. That was a one-day swing too. Today’s price action suggests we’re seeking this level of volatility on an hourly basis now.

Traders Cite Rate Cuts and Geopolitics, but Supply Deficit Remains Key

Traders are saying the anticipation of more rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and geopolitical risks are driving the current volatility. That’s fine for the short-run. Long-term, it’s the anticipation of a supply deficit and the listing of silver on the government’s list of critical minerals that’s going the major lifting.

Why This Rally Differs From the Late-1970s Silver Spike

But can it last? I think so. This rally is a lot different than the one I witnessed in the late 70’s. That was fueled by the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market. It came to a screeching halt when COMEX ordered fully-priced margins. This rally is more structured and there are more players, who can afford the volatile price swings.