XAG/USD Current price: $80.36

• Silver prices edged lower at the beginning of the week despite persistent risk aversion.
• The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
• XAG/USD is technically bearish in the near term, critical support at $76.80.

Silver price edged lower at the beginning of the week, despite multiple weekend headlines hinting at panic taking over financial markets at the opening. Fears were indeed present, although to a moderated extent. Given the escalation of Iran’s war, Oil prices soared amid renewed supply-disruption fears, while the US Dollar (USD) and precious metals edged lower.

What happened?

It may not be about what happened, but rather about what is about to happen: The Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding a monetary policy meeting this week and will announce its decision on Wednesday. The central bank will also release the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or dot-plot, policymakers’ economic perspectives for this year and the next two years. Fed officials have expressed some concerns about rising inflationary pressures, and, well, not only has inflation continued to rise at the beginning of the year, but oil supply disruptions hint at higher price pressures in the coming months.

Additionally, United States (US) officials will have to bear with President Donald Trump’s desire for lower interest rates, clearly at odds with macroeconomic prospects. Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to face Trump’s criticism once again. Just now, Trump said that there should be a special meeting “to cut rates right now.”

Inflation-related uncertainty, alongside Trump’s unpredictability, is making market players have second thoughts about happily buying the USD. But why then did Gold and Silver fall?

Pretty much because bonds yields are also up in tumultuous times, stealing the appeal of precious metals, that give no return on holding.

What to expect from Silver

Taking a look at the daily chart, XAU/USD has bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its November/January bullish run at around $76.80, trading around its daily opening level. The same chart shows bears hold the grip, as the pair holds below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $84.40, which converges with the next Fibonacci level. At the same time, XAG/USD remains above rising 100- and 200-day SMAs around $72.60 and $56.70, keeping the broader uptrend intact but exposing it to a deeper correction. The Momentum Indicator has turned negative, flat below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator eases toward 45, reinforcing a loss of bullish conviction without entering oversold territory.

In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD is biased lower, as the price also develops below its moving averages. The 20-period SMA provides near-term resistance at around $82.60, but overall, moving averages lack directional conviction. The near-term chart also shows that the Momentum indicator remains below 0, while the RSI indicator holds around 40, consistent with a weak d downtrend.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day SMA around $84.40, followed by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the monthly rally from at $85.40, where recent rallies stalled. A daily close above $85.40 would open the way toward the 38.2% retracement at $94.04, shifting the short-term tone back to the upside. On the downside, immediate support aligns near $76.80 at the 61.8% retracement ahead of the 100-day SMA around $72.60; a break below this zone would suggest an extended corrective phase toward the rising 200-day SMA closer to $56.70.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)